Economic Assessment of the Euro Area: Forecasts and Policy Analysis, Spring Report 2005

Special Policy Topic: When jobs disappear and workers do not? International relocation of production and the European economy

Economic Assessment of the Euro Area: Forecasts and Policy Analysis, Autumn Report 2005

Special Policy Issue: The Future of Corporate Taxation in the EU

Coherence of terrestrial vertebrate species richness with external drivers across scales and taxonomic groups

Aim: Understanding connections between environment and biodiversity is crucial for conservation, identifying causes of ecosystem stress, and predicting population responses to changing environments. Explaining biodiversity requires an under-standing of how species richness and environment covary across scales. Here, we identify scales and locations at which biodiversity is generated and correlates with environment.Location: Full latitudinal range per continent.Time Period: Present day.Major Taxa Studied: Terrestrial vertebrates: all mammals, carnivorans, bats, song-birds, hummingbirds, amphibians.Methods: We describe the use of wavelet power spectra, cross- power and coherence for identifying scale-dependent trends across Earth's surface. Spectra reveal scale- and location-dependent coherence between species richness and topography (E), mean annual precipitation (Pn), temperature (Tm) and annual temperature range (ΔT).Results: >97% of species richness of taxa studied is generated at large scales, that is, wavelengths ≳103 km, with 30%–69% generated at scales ≳104 km. At these scales, richness tends to be highly coherent and anti-correlated with E and ΔT, and positively correlated with Pn and Tm. Coherence between carnivoran richness and ΔT is low across scales, implying insensitivity to seasonal temperature variations. Conversely, amphibian richness is strongly anti-correlated with ΔT at large scales. At scales ≲103 km, examined taxa, except carnivorans, show highest richness within the trop-ics. Terrestrial plateaux exhibit high coherence between carnivorans and E at scales ∼103 km, consistent with contribution of large-scale tectonic processes to biodiver-sity. Results are similar across different continents and for global latitudinal averages. Spectral admittance permits derivation of rules-of- thumb relating long-wavelength environmental and species richness trends.Main Conclusions: Sensitivities of mammal, bird and amphibian populations to envi-ronment are highly scale dependent. At large scales, carnivoran richness is largely in-dependent of temperature and precipitation, whereas amphibian richness correlates strongly with precipitation and temperature, and anti-correlates with temperature range. These results pave the way for spectral- based calibration of models that pre-dict biodiversity response to climate change scenarios

Large-Scale Tectonic Forcing of the African Landscape

Abstract: Successful inverse modeling of observed longitudinal river profiles suggests that fluvial landscapes are responsive to continent‐wide tectonic forcing. However, inversion algorithms make simplifying assumptions about landscape erodibility and drainage planform stability that require careful justification. For example, precipitation rate and drainage catchment area are usually assumed to be invariant. Here, we exploit a closed‐loop modeling strategy by inverting drainage networks generated by dynamic landscape simulations in order to investigate the validity of these assumptions. First, we invert 4,018 African river profiles to determine an uplift history that is independently calibrated, and subsequently validated, using separate suites of geologic observations. Second, we use this tectonic forcing to drive landscape simulations that permit divide migration, interfluvial erosion and changes in catchment size. These simulations reproduce large‐scale features of the African landscape, including growth of deltaic deposits. Third, the influence of variable precipitation is investigated by carrying out a series of increasingly severe tests. Inverse modeling of drainage inventories extracted from simulated landscapes can largely recover tectonic forcing. Our closed‐loop modeling strategy suggests that large‐scale tectonic forcing plays the primary role in landscape evolution. One corollary of the integrative solution of the stream‐power equation is that precipitation rate becomes influential only if it varies on time scales longer than ∼1 Ma. We conclude that calibrated inverse modeling of river profiles is a fruitful method for investigating landscape evolution and for testing source‐to‐sink models

The European economy in 1998 and 1999

World economic activity remains relatively robust, although the Asian crisis casts a shadow over the picture. The rate of growth of world trade has slowed down since last fall, but is expected to remain above its trend level. International price developments remain quite moderate. Oil prices have declined substantially, and are among the lowest of the decade. Inflationary pressures are also limited in the industrial countries, as capacity constraints are not yet significant there and excess supply has materialized worldwide. The industrial countries show a sustained growth rate between 2Vi and 3 per cent on average. However, the combination of strong growth and low inflation is the result of divergent developments between countries. • The US economy has been until recently particularly buoyant, as strong domestic demand has more than offset the dampening effect of falling exports to Asia. The Japanese economy remains in the doldrums. The threat of a deflation has recently prompted a substantial stimulation programme aiming at preventing a further deterioration of confidence. \^ Economic growth in Asia has been-severely_ restricted, in particular in the ASEAN countries and Korea, although extensive rescue operations have brought the situation in the worst hit countries more or less under control. The impact on the European countries is as yet rather limited, as negative trade effects are largely compensated for by beneficial effects of lower imported inflation and lower interest rates. Thus Western Europe is in a position to sustain the recovery that began in mid-1996. Prospects have been strengthened as uncertainties associated with the implementation of the EMU have now been dissipated. The time has now come to begin to view the EMU countries as a single entity from the viewpoint of economic management, even if differences persist in many fields. --

The European economy in 1999 and 2000: Report

World economic growth this year is likely to remain as weak as in 1998, despite a gradual acceleration in the course of the year. The volume of world trade is estimated to have fallen significantly in the latter half of last year, and to date there are few signs of a rapid recovery. However, there are indications of improved investor sentiment in a number of emerging market economies, and the monetary authorities in many industrial economies have lowered shortterm interest rates significantly since last autumn. In the absence of further financial market turmoil, a modest global recovery is expected to develop this year, led by improved prospects for the Asian economies. World GDP is expected to rise by 3 per cent in 2000, after growth of 2V4 per cent this year (Table 1). The industrial economies as a group are not expected to contribute significantly to the overall rebound. The economy of the United States has remained much stronger than expected, but could experience a soft landing next year, particularly if the Federal Reserve decides to tighten monetary policy. Activity in Japan may at best stabilise next year after two years of declining GDP, with many firms continuing to have excess capacity, and domestic demand expected to remain weak. The continuing weakness of Japan will help to keep the upturn in the emerging markets within bounds. Growth should pick up in Western Europe over the next eighteen months, helped by the present relaxed monetary conditions. However, a recovery this year remains far from assured, with activity likely to be particularly weak in Germany and Italy. The present, historically low, rate of inflation in the industrial world may rise slightly, partly as a result of some recovery in world prices for primary commodities, recently in particular for oil. In the euro area, import prices will also rise as a result of the recent depreciation of the euro against the dollar. The continued strength of the dollar can be partly attributed to the very strong performance of the American economy compared with the European economy, and to the rising interest rate differentials with Europe. We expect that developments in the opposite direction will weaken the dollar again. Section VI of this report illustrates a scenario with a more substantial weakening in the aftermath of a collapse in equity prices. The Western European economy has been strongly affected by the adverse developments in the crisis regions. This has depressed industrial production significantly over the past year. The prospects for Europe are heavily dependent on the timing and extent to which these effects fade away. The American economy has been a strong engine for world economic growth up to now, but there are several imbalances that may lead to a slowdown over the next eighteen months. This could have a substantial impact on the European economy. --

The European economy in 1998 and 1999: An update

A. Situation and Prospects for the European Economy 3 I. Slower Growth of the World Economy 3 II. Weaker Expansion of the European Economy 5 III. Economic Policy 7 B. Country Reports 9 I. Germany: Upturn Continues Despite Financial Turbulence 9 II. Confidence Still High in France, Though Off Its Peak 9 III. Downturn in the UK Economy 10 IV. Italy: A Fragile Recovery 11 --

Evaluation of combined sewer overflow impacts on short-term pharmaceutical and illicit drug occurrence in a heavily urbanised tidal river catchment (London, UK)

Publisher’s embargo period: Embargo set on 11.03.2019 by SR (TIS)

Microdata and Policy Evaluation at CPB

Hervorming Sociale Regelgevin

Accessibility appraisal of integrated land-use-transport strategies: methodology and case study for the Netherlands Randstad area

Conventional approaches to measuring accessibility benefits are not capable of fully measuring the total accessibility benefits of integrated land-use-transport strategies, in which both land-use and transport changes form part of the policy strategy. In this paper a comprehensive methodology for analysing accessibility impacts and accessibility benefits, which is based on location-based and utility-based accessibility measures within an integrated land-use-transport interaction modelling framework, is described and applied in a case study. The case study examines the accessibility benefits and related user benefits of intensive mixed-use strategies aimed at increasing the density and diversity of activities around railway stations for the Randstad area of the Netherlands for the 1996-2030 period. A heavy concentration of activities near railway stations is shown to result in decreasing marginal returns for public-transport users and disbenefits for car users. © 2006 a Pion publication printed in Great Britain