Noname - A new quarterly model for Belgium

This paper gives an overview of the present version of the quarterly model for the Belgian economy built at the National Bank of Belgium (NBB). This model can provide quantitative input into the policy analysis and projection processes within a framework that has explicit micro-foundations and expectations. This new version is also compatible with the ESA95 national accounts. This model called Noname is relatively compact. The intertemporal optimisation problem of households and firms is subject to polynomial adjustment costs, which yields richer dynamic specifications than the more usual quadratic cost function. Other characteristics are: pricing-to-market and hence flexible mark-ups and incomplete pass-through, a CES production function with an elasticity of substitution between capital and labour below one, time-dependent wage contracting à la Dotsey, King and Wollman. Most of the equations taken individually have acceptable statistical properties and diagnostic simulations suggest that the impulse responses of the model to exogenous shocks are reasonable. Its structure allows simulations to be conducted under the assumption of rational expectations as well as under alternative expectations formations.Econometric modelling, Pricing-to-market, CES production function, Wage bargaining, Polynomial adjustment costs, Rational expectations.

The labour market and fiscal impact of labour reductions: The case of reduction of employers' social security contributions under a wage norm regime with automatic price indexing of wages. NBB Working Paper Nr. 36

This paper investigates the possible labour market and fiscal impacts of labour tax reductions in a typically Belgian setting, i.e. a wage norm regime with automatic price indexing of wages. We consider reductions in employers' social security contributions and fiscal compensation through value added or production taxes. Reductions in employers' social security contributions can only have significant employment effects if they effectively reduce labour costs. These reductions are only partly self-financing, and the cost per job created is high. The remaining negative impact on the government budget should be compensated through an alternative means of financing this expenditure, since not–compensating for the budgetary loss is not a realistic option in the long run. For this purpose, various financing schemes can be envisaged, but an increase in value added tax and the introduction of a tax on production (mimicking environmental taxes affecting firms' production costs) are the two possibilities considered in this paper. The alternative financing mechanisms destroy some of the positive employment effects of the initial reductions. However, on balance the combined measures can create some employment without worsening the government budget balance. The reaction of wages to the reduction in employers' social security contributions and to the fiscal compensation measures proves crucial. The more the initial reductions in employers' contributions are used to finance higher gross wages, and the more the inflationary effects of fiscal compensation measures are passed on in wages, the less positive the impact on employment will be. This means that little job creation is to be expected without a special co-ordination effort between all labour market players. Labour tax reductions are by no means a substitute for other labour market reforms

Waarnemingen en eerste broedgeval voor België van de Noordse Stern (<i>Sterna paradisaea</i>) te Knokke

Fifty-three observations of the Arctic Tern, Sterna paradisaca, in the bird-sanctuary «Zwin» (near Knokke-Heist, in Belgium), or on the seashore nearby, were made between 1971 and 1977. They show that the Arctic Tern is an annual autumn visitor in very small numbers. A few spring records are mentioned (April-June). The atmospheric conditions do not completely determine the appearance of this bird on the Belgian shores, though strong west or northwest winds certainly bring more birds along our coast. The Arctic Tern bred in the Zwin in 1976; this constituted the first breeding record for Belgium

The labour market and fiscal impact of labour reductions: the case of reduction of employers' social security contributions under a wage norm regime with automatic price indexing of wages.

This paper investigates the possible labour market and fiscal impacts of labour tax reductions in a typically Belgian setting, i.e. a wage norm regime with automatic price indexing of wages. We consider reductions in employers' social security contributions and fiscal compensation through value added or production taxes. Reductions in employers' social security contributions can only have significant employment effects if they effectively reduce labour costs. These reductions are only partly self-financing, and the cost per job created is high. The remaining negative impact on the government budget should be compensated through an alternative means of financing this expenditure, since not\u2013compensating for the budgetary loss is not a realistic option in the long run. For this purpose, various financing schemes can be envisaged, but an increase in value added tax and the introduction of a tax on production (mimicking environmental taxes affecting firms' production costs) are the two possibilities considered in this paper. The alternative financing mechanisms destroy some of the positive employment effects of the initial reductions. However, on balance the combined measures can create some employment without worsening the government budget balance. The reaction of wages to the reduction in employers' social security contributions and to the fiscal compensation measures proves crucial. The more the initial reductions in employers' contributions are used to finance higher gross wages, and the more the inflationary effects of fiscal compensation measures are passed on in wages, the less positive the impact on employment will be. This means that little job creation is to be expected without a special co-ordination effort between all labour market players. Labour tax reductions are by no means a substitute for other labour market reforms.