The state-of-the-art in short term prediction of wind power from a danish perspective

International audienceThis presentation is based on a longer report trying to summarise more than 100 papers written in the field over the last decades. Many regions have nowadays such high penetrations of wind energy (the host region Western Denmark has in the order of 25%) that without good short-term prediction tools, an economic and secure integration of wind power with maximal ecological benefits of the wind power could not be realised. A historical perspective will lead to an account of the current crop of models, including to a high degree the experiences made in Denmark with operative use of the tools since 1994. Three horizons are interesting for utilities: a short horizon determined by the ramping and start-up times of conventional power plants for the scheduling (4-8 hours ahead), a longer horizon dealing with the trading on the different electricity exchanges (in the case of NordPool, 13-37 hours ahead), and a long horizon where the models could be used for maintenance planning (all the way to weeks ahead). For the first case, one could get away with using a time-series analysis model coupled to climatology, but for even medium horizons, the accuracy of the model is getting much better by using numerical weather prediction, typically from the local meteorological institute. The most prominent source of error is the numerical weather prediction model used, and in that it is phase errors (timing errors) that have a decisive impact on the traditional error scores, and on the financial bottom line. Current work is trying to estimate the uncertainty of the forecasts. The longer report has been prepared in the framework of work for the EU Commission, especially a Marie-Curie-Fellowship and the ANEMOS project

State-of-the-art Methods and software tools for short-term prediction of wind energy production

International audienceThe installed wind energy capacity in Europe today is 20 GW, while the projections for 2010 according to the Kyoto protocol and the EC directives is up to 40-60 GW. The large-scale integration of wind energy emerges the use of advanced operational tools for short-term forecasting of the wind production in the next hours up to the next 2-7 days. End-users (independent power producers, electric companies, transmission system operators, etc) recognize the contribution of wind prediction for a secure and economic operation of the power system. Especially, in a liberalized electricity market, prediction tools enhance the position of wind energy compared to other forms of dispatchable generation. The paper presents in detail the state-of the-art on the methods, the software tools and the relevant R&D projects for wind power forecasting. The paper finally presents experience by end-users that run operationally such prediction systems today as stand-alone applications or interfaced to EMS/DMS systems. The paper reviews the related literature on wind power prediction. Emphasis is given on operational tools such as WPPT, Prediktor, Zephyr, Previento, SIPREÓLICO, LocalPred, More-Care etc. The various models or tools are classified using criteria like: · The type of implemented approach i.e. timeseries (neural networks, ARMA etc) or physical. · The specific spatial scale focused by the models (regional, wind park scale, micro-scale). · The on-line performance of the prediction tools and their coupling to Energy Management Systems

Stretching and challenging the boundaries of law: varieties of knowledge in biotechnologies regulation

The paper addresses the question of adaptation of existing regulatory frameworks in the face of innovation in biotechnologies, and specifically the roles played in this by various expert knowledge practices. We identify two overlapping ideal types of adaptation: first, the stretching and maintenance of a pre-existing legal framework, and second, a breaking of existing classifications and establishment of a novel regime. We approach this issue by focusing on varieties of regulatory knowledge which, contributing to and parting of political legitimacy, in principle enable the making of legally binding decisions about risks and benefits of technologies. We base the discussion around two case studies, one of animal biotechnology ethical regulation, the other of ‘advanced therapy’ medicinal product regulation, both in the context of European Union frameworks. Specifically, we explore the knowledge configurations constituting expert committees and other institutional formations of expert regulatory knowledge in their political context. We show that where sectoral and moral boundaries are challenged, different modes of regulatory knowledge beyond scientific forms – legal, procedural, moral, economic and industrial – can shape regulatory innovations either by maintenance of regimes through commensuration and stretching, or through differentiation and separation creating new frameworks. We conclude that establishing an essential techno-scientific difference between pre-existing and novel technologies does not in itself require new regulatory structures, and that the regulatory strategy that is followed will be determined by a combination of different forms of knowledge

TCCON data from Harwell, Oxfordshire (UK), Release GGG2020.R0

The Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) is a network of ground-based Fourier Transform Spectrometers that record direct solar absorption spectra of the atmosphere in the near-infrared. From these spectra, accurate and precise column-averaged abundances of atmospheric constituents including CO2, CH4, N2O, HF, CO, H2O, and HDO, are retrieved. This is the GGG2020 data release of observations from the TCCON station at Harwell, UKFiles available via S3 at https://renc.osn.xsede.org/ini210004tommorrell/10.14291/tccon.ggg2020.harwell01.R0/</p>README.txt, 50.7 kB <a role="button" class="ui compact mini button" href="https://renc.osn.xsede.org/ini210004tommorrell/10.14291/tccon.ggg2020.harwell01.R0/README.txt" > <i class="download icon"></i> Download </a></p> hw20210530_20220522.public.qc.nc, 7.1 MB <a role="button" class="ui compact mini button" href="https://renc.osn.xsede.org/ini210004tommorrell/10.14291/tccon.ggg2020.harwell01.R0/hw20210530_20220522.public.qc.nc" > <i class="download icon"></i> Download </a></p> LICENSE.txt, 2.0 kB <a role="button" class="ui compact mini button" href="https://renc.osn.xsede.org/ini210004tommorrell/10.14291/tccon.ggg2020.harwell01.R0/LICENSE.txt" > <i class="download icon"></i> Download </a></p&gt

The State-Of-The-Art in Short-Term Prediction of Wind Power, A Literature Overview, 2nd Edition. Joint deliverable report of ANEMOS.plus and SafeWind European projects.

This joint Deliverable of ANEMOS.plus and SafeWind projects presents the state of the art in wind power forecasting. More than 380 references of journal and conference papers have been reviewed.The ANEMOS.plus Project was funded by the European Commission under the 6th Framework Program. Grant Agreement N° 038692. Project title “Advanced Tools for the Management of Electricity Grids with LargeScale Wind Generation”.The SafeWind Project was funded by the European Commission under the 7th FrameWork Program. Grant Agreement N° 213740. Project title: “Multi-scale data assimilation, advanced wind modelling & forecasting with emphasis to extreme weather situations for a safe large-scale wind power integration”

Determination of the limiting low pressure rate constants of the reactions of CH with N2 and CO: a CRESU measurement at 53 K

International audienc