Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Regimes; Evidence from the Financial Markets

Inflation targeting is gaining popularity as a framework for conducting monetary policy. At the same time many countries employ some sort of foreign exchange intervention policy assuming that these two policies can coexist. This paper attempts to show that both policies are not sustainable. The potential conflict between the two policies is costly to the economy and will eventually result in the abandonment of one of these policies. Israel is a classic test case for two reasons. First, in the mid to late 90s Israel has struggled to maintain both policies. Second, it has a variety of financial instruments which provide a rich source of information. We test our hypothesis about the conflict using information from the financial markets. The results support the hypothesis that both policies cannot be sustained in the long run. The conclusion is that a credible monetary policy aimed at inflation targets should be conducted in a free floating exchange rate regime

Asset Pricing and Ambiguity: Empirical Evidence

Modern portfolio theory focuses on the relationship between risk and return, assuming away ambiguity, uncertainty over the probability space. This paper assumes that ambiguity affects asset prices and tests the relationship between risk, ambiguity and return based on a model developed by Izhakian (2011). Its contribution is twofold; it proposes an ambiguity measure that is derived theoretically and computed from stock market prices. Second, it uses ambiguity in conjunction with risk to test the basic relationship between risk, ambiguity and return. This paper finds that ambiguity has a consistently negative effect on returns and risk mostly has a positive effect

Pricing Systematic Ambiguity in Capital Markets

Asset pricing models assume that probabilities of future outcomes are known. In reality, however, there is ambiguity with regard to these probabilities. Accounting for ambiguity in asset pricing theory results in a model with two systematic components, beta risk and beta ambiguity. The focus of this paper is to study the empirical implications of ambiguity for the cross section of equity returns. We find that systematic ambiguity is an important determinant of equity returns. We also find that the Fama-French factors contribute to the explanatory power of the two main drivers of returns; namely, systematic risk and systematic ambiguity

Asset Prices and Ambiguity

Modern portfolio theory, developed in the expected utility paradigm, focuses on the relationship between risk and return, assuming away ambiguity, uncertainty over the probability space. In this paper, we assume that ambiguity affects asset prices and we test the relationship between risk, ambiguity and return based on a model developed by Izhakian (2011). Our contribution is twofold; we propose an ambiguity measure that is derived theoretically and computed from intraday stock market prices. Second, we use it in conjunction with risk measures to test the basic relationship between risk, ambiguity and return. We find that our ambiguity measure has a consistently negative effect on returns and that our risk measure has mostly a positive effect. The best evidence, judging by statistical significance, is obtained when we use the change in volatility alongside the measure of ambiguity

Liquidity and Efficiency in Three Related Foreign Exchange Options Markets

The foreign currency market in a small open economy, like Israel, plays a major role in fiscal and monetary policy decisions, through its effects on the financial markets and the real economy. In this paper we explore the liquidity and efficiency in three related foreign exchange options markets and the information content of the instruments traded in these markets. The unique data set on OTC trading and the central bank auctions, in addition to the exchange traded options provide us with insights about the operation of these markets, their relative efficiency, their information content and their interrelationship. An important aspect is the effect of liquidity on the pricing of options in these markets. As expected, we find that, except for extreme cases, liquidity does not affect options prices

INFLATION EXPECTATIONS DERIVED FROM FOREIGN

Inflation expectations are a key economic variable for investors in capital markets and for economic policy decision makers. One of the widely used sources for deriving inflation expectations are market prices of bonds. The yield differential between nominal bonds and inflation-indexed (linked) bonds is taken to be an estimate of expected inflation. The problem is however that in a risk averse world the yield differential includes an inflation risk premium and thus the yield differential provides an upward bias of inflation expectations. The novelty of our paper is that we estimate this risk premium using volatility implied in options prices. In the absence of a market in options on inflation we use prices of foreign currency options to estimate this risk premium. The theoretical foundation of our methodology is purchasing power parity theory. The Israeli financial market has both, an inflation linked and non linked bond market and an active FX options market. Using data from both markets we find a statistically and economically significant inflation risk premium

Ambiguity and Overconfidence

There are two phenomena in behavioral finance and economics which are seemingly unrelated and have been studied separately; overconfidence and ambiguity aversion. In this paper we are trying to link these two phenomena providing a theoretical foundation supported by evidence from an experimental study. We derive a model, based on the max-min ambiguity framework that links overconfidence to ambiguity aversion. In the experimental study we find that overconfidence is decreasing in ambiguity, as predicted by our model

THE PRICE OF OPTIONS ILLIQUIDITY

The purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of illiquidity on the value of currency options. We use a unique data set which allows us to explore this issue in special circumstances where options are issued by a central bank and are not traded prior to maturity. The value of these options is compared to similar options traded on the exchange. We find that the non-tradable options are priced about 21 percent less than the exchange traded options. This gap cannot be arbitraged away due to transactions costs and the risk that the exchange rate will change during the bidding process