52 research outputs found
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Assessing heat-related health risk in Europe via the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI)
In this work the potential of the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) as a heat-related health risk indicator in Europe is demonstrated. The UTCI is a bioclimate index that uses a multi-node human heat balance model to represent the heat stress induced by meteorological conditions to the human body. Using 38 years of meteorological reanalysis data, UTCI maps were computed to assess the thermal bioclimate of Europe for the summer season. Patterns of heat stress conditions and non-thermal stress regions are identified across Europe. An increase in heat stress up to 1°C is observed during recent decades. Correlation with mortality data from 17 European countries revealed that the relationship between the UTCI and death counts depends on the bioclimate of the country, and death counts increase in conditions of moderate and strong stress, i.e. when UTCI is above 26°C and 32°C. The UTCI’s ability to represent mortality patterns is demonstrated for the 2003 European heatwave. These findings confirm the importance of UTCI as a bioclimatic index that is able to both capture the thermal bioclimatic variability of Europe, and relate such variability with the effects it has on human health
Economic valuation of climate change induced mortality: Age dependent cold and heat mortality in the Netherlands
This study examines the impacts of climate change on future mortality in the Netherlands and the related economic costs. Our methods account for changes in both cold- and heat-related mortality for different age classes, the time dynamics associated with temperature-related mortality, demographic change and the urban heat island effect. Results show that heat and cold impacts on mortality vary considerably between age classes, with older people being more vulnerable to temperature extremes. The sensitivity of mortality to temperature is higher on hot (4.6%/°C) than cold (2.1%/°C) days for the most vulnerable group (≥ 80 years), and extreme temperatures have long time lags on mortality, especially in the cold. A main finding is that climate change is expected to first decrease total net mortality in the Netherlands due to a dominant effect of less cold-related mortality, but this reverses over time under high warming scenarios, unless additional adaptation measures are taken. The economic valuation of these total net mortality changes indicates that climate change will result in net benefits of up to €2.3 billion using the Value of a Statistical Life Year and €14.5 billion using the Value of a Statistical Life approaches in 2050, while this changes over time in net economic costs under high warming scenarios that can reach up to €17.6 billion in 2085. Implementing adaptation policies that reduce the negative impacts of warming on mortality in the heat can turn these net costs into net benefits by achieving a continued dominating effect of reduced mortality in the cold
Economic valuation of climate change induced mortality: Age dependent cold and heat mortality in the Netherlands
This study examines the impacts of climate change on future mortality in the Netherlands and the related economic costs. Our methods account for changes in both cold- and heat-related mortality for different age classes, the time dynamics associated with temperature-related mortality, demographic change and the urban heat island effect. Results show that heat and cold impacts on mortality vary considerably between age classes, with older people being more vulnerable to temperature extremes. The sensitivity of mortality to temperature is higher on hot (4.6%/°C) than cold (2.1%/°C) days for the most vulnerable group (≥ 80 years), and extreme temperatures have long time lags on mortality, especially in the cold. A main finding is that climate change is expected to first decrease total net mortality in the Netherlands due to a dominant effect of less cold-related mortality, but this reverses over time under high warming scenarios, unless additional adaptation measures are taken. The economic valuation of these total net mortality changes indicates that climate change will result in net benefits of up to €2.3 billion using the Value of a Statistical Life Year and €14.5 billion using the Value of a Statistical Life approaches in 2050, while this changes over time in net economic costs under high warming scenarios that can reach up to €17.6 billion in 2085. Implementing adaptation policies that reduce the negative impacts of warming on mortality in the heat can turn these net costs into net benefits by achieving a continued dominating effect of reduced mortality in the cold
Economic valuation of climate change induced mortality: Age dependent cold and heat mortality in the Netherlands
This study examines the impacts of climate change on future mortality in the Netherlands and the related economic costs. Our methods account for changes in both cold- and heat-related mortality for different age classes, the time dynamics associated with temperature-related mortality, demographic change and the urban heat island effect. Results show that heat and cold impacts on mortality vary considerably between age classes, with older people being more vulnerable to temperature extremes. The sensitivity of mortality to temperature is higher on hot (4.6%/°C) than cold (2.1%/°C) days for the most vulnerable group (≥ 80 years), and extreme temperatures have long time lags on mortality, especially in the cold. A main finding is that climate change is expected to first decrease total net mortality in the Netherlands due to a dominant effect of less cold-related mortality, but this reverses over time under high warming scenarios, unless additional adaptation measures are taken. The economic valuation of these total net mortality changes indicates that climate change will result in net benefits of up to €2.3 billion using the Value of a Statistical Life Year and €14.5 billion using the Value of a Statistical Life approaches in 2050, while this changes over time in net economic costs under high warming scenarios that can reach up to €17.6 billion in 2085. Implementing adaptation policies that reduce the negative impacts of warming on mortality in the heat can turn these net costs into net benefits by achieving a continued dominating effect of reduced mortality in the cold
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