Relativistic microburst storm characteristics: Combined satellite and ground-based observations

We report a comparison of Solar Anomalous Magnetospheric Particle Explorer detected relativistic electron microbursts and short-lived subionospheric VLF perturbations termed FAST events, observed at Sodankyl Geophysical Observatory, Finland, during 2005. We show that only strong geomagnetic disturbances can produce FAST events, which is consistent with the strong link between storms and relativistic microbursts. Further, the observed FAST event perturbation decay times were consistent with ionospheric recovery from bursts of relativistic electron precipitation. However, the one-to-one correlation in time between microbursts and FAST events was found to be very low (similar to 1%). We interpret this as confirmation that microbursts have small ionospheric footprints and estimate the individual precipitation events to be <4 km radius. In contrast, our study strongly suggests that the region over which microbursts occur during storm event periods can be at least similar to 90 degrees in longitude (similar to 6 h in magnetic local time). This confirms earlier estimates of microburst storm size, suggesting that microbursts could be a significant loss mechanism for radiation belt relativistic electrons during geomagnetic storms. Although microbursts are observed at a much higher rate than FAST events, the ground-based FAST event data can provide additional insight into the conditions required for microburst generation and the time variation of relativistic precipitation

Resonance of relativistic electrons with electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves

Relativistic electrons have been thought to more easily resonate with electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves if the total density is large. We show that, for a particular EMIC mode, this dependence is weak due to the dependence of the wave frequency and wave vector on the density. A significant increase in relativistic electron minimum resonant energy might occur for the H band EMIC mode only for small density, but no changes in parameters significantly decrease the minimum resonant energy from a nominal value. The minimum resonant energy depends most strongly on the thermal velocity associated with the field line motion of the hot ring current protons that drive the instability. High density due to a plasmasphere or plasmaspheric plume could possibly lead to lower minimum resonance energy by causing the He band EMIC mode to be dominant. We demonstrate these points using parameters from a ring current simulation

CalMagNet ? an array of search coil magnetometers monitoring ultra low frequency activity in California

International audienceThe California Magnetometer Network (CalMagNet) consists of sixty-eight triaxial search-coil magnetometer systems measuring Ultra Low Frequency (ULF), 0.001?16 Hz, magnetic field fluctuations in California. CalMagNet provides data for comprehensive multi-point measurements of specific events in the Pc 1?Pc 5 range at mid-latitudes as well as a systematic, long-term study of ULF signals in active fault regions in California. Typical events include geomagnetic micropulsations and spectral resonant structures associated with the ionospheric Alfvén resonator. This paper provides a technical overview of the CalMagNet sensors and data processing systems. The network is composed of ten reference stations and fifty-eight local monitoring stations. The primary instruments at each site are three orthogonal induction coil magnetometers. A geophone monitors local site vibration. The systems are designed for future sensor expansion and include resources for monitoring four additional channels. Data is currently sampled at 32 samples per second with a 24-bit converter and time tagged with a GPS-based timing system. Several examples of representative magnetic fluctuations and signals as measured by the array are given

The possible statistical relation of Pc1 pulsations to Earthquake occurrence at low latitudes

We examine the association between earthquakes and Pc1 pulsations observed at a low-latitude station in Parkfield, California. The period under examination is ~7.5 years in total, from February 1999 to July 2006, and we use an automatic identification algorithm to extract information on Pc1 pulsations from the magnetometer data. These pulsations are then statistically correlated to earthquakes from the USGS NEIC catalog within a radius of 200 km around the magnetometer, and &lt;I&gt;M&lt;/I&gt;&amp;gt;3.0. Results indicate that there is an enhanced occurrence probability of Pc1 pulsations ~5–15 days in advance of the earthquakes, during the daytime. We quantify the statistical significance and show that such an enhancement is unlikely to have occurred due to chance alone. We then examine the effect of declustering our earthquake catalog, and show that even though significance decreases, there is still a statistically significant daytime enhancement prior to the earthquakes. Finally, we select only daytime Pc1 pulsations as the fiducial time of our analysis, and show that earthquakes are ~3–5 times more likely to occur in the week following these pulsations, than normal. Comparing these results to other events, it is preliminarily shown that the normal earthquake probability is unaffected by geomagnetic activity, or a random event sequence

On the generation of probabilistic forecasts from deterministic models

Most of the methods that produce space weather forecasts are based on deterministic models. In order to generate a probabilistic forecast, a model needs to be run several times sampling the input parameter space, in order to generate an ensemble from which the distribution of outputs can be inferred. However, ensemble simulations are costly and often preclude the possibility of real-time forecasting. We introduce a simple and robust method to generate uncertainties from deterministic models, that does not require ensemble simulations. The method is based on the simple consideration that a probabilistic forecast needs to be both accurate and well calibrated (reliable). We argue that these two requirements are equally important, and we introduce the Accuracy-Reliability cost function that quantitatively measures the trade-off between accuracy and reliability. We then define the optimal uncertainties as the standard deviation of the Gaussian distribution that minimizes the cost function. We demonstrate that this simple strategy, implemented here by means of a deep neural network, produces accurate and well-calibrated forecasts, showing examples both on synthetic and real-world space weather data

Plasmatrough exohiss waves observed by Van Allen Probes: Evidence for leakage from plasmasphere and resonant scattering of radiation belt electrons

Abstract Exohiss waves are whistler mode hiss observed in the plasmatrough region. We present a case study of exohiss waves and the corresponding background plasma distributions observed by the Van Allen Probes in the dayside low-latitude region. The analysis of wave Poynting fluxes, suprathermal electron fluxes, and cold electron densities supports the scenario that exohiss leaks from the plasmasphere into the plasmatrough. Quasilinear calculations further reveal that exohiss can potentially cause the resonant scattering loss of radiation belt electrons

Modeling the evolution of chorus waves into plasmaspheric hiss

Plasmaspheric hiss (PH) is a band-limited, incoherent whistler mode emission found predominantly in the plasmasphere or high-density plasma regions in the near-Earth space environment. Since its discovery in the late 1960s, PH has been recognized as playing an important role in shaping the structure and dynamics of the Earth's electron radiation belts and creating the slot region that separates the inner and outer belts. However, the origin of PH has been a topic of intense debate for over four decades. Here we present a model for the origin of PH that involves the evolution of chorus waves into the PH spectrum. We perform extensive ray tracing using the HOTRAY code and calculate Landau damping using newly developed suprathermal flux maps from THEMIS observations, that are L and magnetic local time dependent, for both inside and outside the plasmasphere. Our results show remarkable consistency with the observed statistical characteristics of hiss, including the day/night asymmetry in wave power, frequency spectrum, geomagnetic control of PH, quasi-parallel equatorial wave normal angles, and confinement within the plasmasphere. Our model also reproduces ancillary features such as exohiss and extremely low frequency (ELF) hiss and might be related to a previously reported phenomenon called lower hybrid resonance duct trapping in the ionosphere. A detailed analysis of ray morphologies shows a separation into four distinct groups, which correspond to (1) rays that are trapped at the plasmapause, (2) PH rays, (3) ELF hiss rays, and (4) rays that represent the bulk of the chorus ray power

Nonlinear interactions between relativistic radiation belt electrons and oblique whistler mode waves

Resonant interactions between relativistic charged particles and oblique whistler mode waves are explored in this work, and it is shown that nonlinear phase trapping could happen in a gyrophase averaged sense, consistent with previous studies of interactions between nonrelativistic electrons and oblique whistler mode waves. A dimensionless parameter χ is derived to represent the ratio of wave-induced motion to the adiabatic motion of the particle. We show that phase trapping is likely to occur when the wave-induced motion dominates the adiabatic motion, which is caused mainly by the background fields. A mapping of probable regions of nonlinear interactions is shown based on the parameter χ. We show that the nonlinear interactions might be important near the equatorial plane for even moderate wave amplitude, and the latitudinal range for nonlinear interactions to occur is largest for electrons with local pitch angles around 50 degrees, consistent with previous findings. The results are important for understanding the nonlinear dynamics of relativistic radiation belt electrons and the generation of chorus waves

Quantifying hiss-driven energetic electron precipitation: A detailed conjunction event analysis

Abstract We analyze a conjunction event between the Van Allen Probes and the low-altitude Polar Orbiting Environmental Satellite (POES) to quantify hiss-driven energetic electron precipitation. A physics-based technique based on quasi-linear diffusion theory is used to estimate the ratio of precipitated and trapped electron fluxes (R), which could be measured by the two-directional POES particle detectors, using wave and plasma parameters observed by the Van Allen Probes. The remarkable agreement between modeling and observations suggests that this technique is applicable for quantifying hiss-driven electron scattering near the bounce loss cone. More importantly, R in the 100-300 keV energy channel measured by multiple POES satellites over a broad L magnetic local time region can potentially provide the spatiotemporal evolution of global hiss wave intensity, which is essential in evaluating radiation belt electron dynamics, but cannot be obtained by in situ equatorial satellites alone. Key Points Measured and calculated hiss Bw from POES electron measurements agree well Electron ratio measured by POES is able to estimate hiss wave intensity This technique can be used to provide global hiss wave distributio

Transitional Activities in Elite Football: Frequency, Type, Effect on Match Outcome and the Novel Concept of Clusters

The aims of this study were to analyze the effect of contextual variables on physical metrics during transitions and investigate repeated transitional activities during transitions. Data was collected from 10 matches (23 elite soccer players). A total of 4249 individual observations were recorded including 1164 positive transitions (defense-to-attack), 1269 negative transitions (attack-to-defense), 1120 fast attacks, and 696 high pressure activities. Metrics per minute (m·min-1) as well as absolute variables: Total Distance (TD), high-speed running distance (HSRD, >19.8km·h-1), sprint distance (SD, >25.2km·h-1), relative high-speed running distance (VelB4), relative sprint distance (VelB5), acceleration distance (AccB3 Dist., distance with variations in running speed >3m·s-2), the number of high-intensity accelerations (HI Acc, >3m·s-2) and decelerations (HI Dec, >3m·s-2) were quantified. Significant effects of match half were found for TD (p <.001; ES =.03), HSRD (p = .023; ES = .012), VelB4 (p < .001; ES = .04), and HI Dec (p = .037; ES = .010). Match outcome had a relation to TD (m), HSRD (m) (p < .001), SD (m) and VelB4 (m) (p = .011) as well as VelB5 (m), and AccB3 Dist. distance (m) (p = .002 and p = .020, respectively). Performance in lost matches was lower in the 2nd half (p≤0.05). This study indicates that players are exposed to repeated short and intermittent high velocity actions together, highlighting the need to move away from 90min averages and pay more attention to transitional activities in modern training design