Sodium content as a predictor of the advanced evolution of globular cluster stars

The asymptotic giant branch (AGB) phase is the final stage of nuclear burning for low-mass stars. Although Milky Way globular clusters are now known to harbour (at least) two generations of stars they still provide relatively homogeneous samples of stars that are used to constrain stellar evolution theory. It is predicted by stellar models that the majority of cluster stars with masses around the current turn-off mass (that is, the mass of the stars that are currently leaving the main sequence phase) will evolve through the AGB phase. Here we report that all of the second-generation stars in the globular cluster NGC 6752 -- 70 per cent of the cluster population -- fail to reach the AGB phase. Through spectroscopic abundance measurements, we found that every AGB star in our sample has a low sodium abundance, indicating that they are exclusively first-generation stars. This implies that many clusters cannot reliably be used for star counts to test stellar evolution timescales if the AGB population is included. We have no clear explanation for this observation.Comment: Published in Nature (online 29 May 2013, hard copy 13 June), 12 pages, 3 figures + supplementary information sectio

Heavy quarks in a magnetic field

The motion of a heavy charged quark in a magnetic field is analyzed in the vacuum of strongly coupled CFT. The motion of the quark is dissipative. It moves in spiral until it eventually comes to rest. The world-sheet geometry is locally AdS_2 but has a time dependent horizon. The string profile in the static gauge extends from the boundary till a point where an embedding singularity exists. Connections with other circular string motions are established.Comment: (v3) Misprints corrected, discussion on moving horizons improved and enhance

Structure and variances of equatorial zonal circulation in a multimodel ensemble

The structure and variance of the equatorial zonal circulation, as characterized by the atmospheric mass flux in the equatorial zonal plane, is examined and inter-compared in simulations from 9 CMIP3 coupled climate models with multiple ensemble members and the NCEP-NCAR and ERA-40 reanalyses. The climate model simulations analyzed here include twentieth century (20C3M) and twenty-first century (SRES A1B) simulations. We evaluate the 20C3M modeled zonal circulations by comparing them with those in the reanalyses. We then examine the variability of the circulation, its changes with global warming, and the associated thermodynamic maintenance. The tropical zonal circulation involves three major components situated over the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic oceans. The three cells are supported by the corresponding diabatic heating extending deeply throughout the troposphere, with heating centers apparent in the mid-troposphere. Seasonal features appear in the zonal circulation, including variations in its intensity and longitudinal migration. Most models, and hence the multi-model mean, represent the annual and seasonal features of the circulation and the associated heating reasonably well. The multi-model mean reproduces the observed climatology better than any individual model, as indicated by the spatial pattern correlation and mean square difference of the mass flux and the diabatic heating compared to the reanalysis based values. Projected changes in the zonal circulation under A1B forcing are dominated by mass flux changes over the Pacific and Indian oceans. An eastward shift of the Pacific Walker circulation is clearly evident with global warming, with anomalous rising motion apparent over the equatorial central Pacific and anomalous sinking motions in the west and east, which favors an overall strengthening of the Walker circulation. The zonal circulation weakens and shifts westwards over the Indian Ocean under external forcing, whereas it strengthens and shifts slightly westwards over the Atlantic Ocean. The forced circulation changes are associated with broad SST and atmospheric diabatic heating changes in the tropics. Linear trends of these forced circulation changes, as characterized by regional spatial maximum amplitudes of mass fluxes and their longitudes over the three oceans, are statistically significant at the 5 % level for 2000–2099 for the multi-model mean. However, wide differences of the trends are apparent across the models, because of both deficiencies in the simulation of the circulations in different models and the high internal variability of the circulations

The cost-effectiveness of trivalent and quadrivalent influenza vaccination in communities in South Africa, Vietnam and Australia

BACKGROUND: To inform national healthcare authorities whether quadrivalent influenza vaccines (QIVs) provide better value for money than trivalent influenza vaccines (TIVs), we assessed the cost-effectiveness of TIV and QIV in low-and-middle income communities based in South Africa and Vietnam and contrasted these findings with those from a high-income community in Australia. METHODS: Individual based dynamic simulation models were interfaced with a health economic analysis model to estimate the cost-effectiveness of vaccinating 15% of the population with QIV or TIV in each community over the period 2003-2013. Vaccination was prioritized for HIV-infected individuals, before elderly aged 65+ years and young children. Country or region-specific data on influenza-strain circulation, clinical outcomes and costs were obtained from published sources. The societal perspective was used and outcomes were expressed in International$(I$) per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. RESULTS: When compared with TIV, we found that QIV would provide a greater reduction in influenza-related morbidity in communities in South Africa and Vietnam as compared with Australia. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of QIV versus TIV was estimated at I$4183/QALY in South Africa, I$1505/QALY in Vietnam and I$80,966/QALY in Australia. CONCLUSIONS: The cost-effectiveness of QIV varied between communities due to differences in influenza epidemiology, comorbidities, and unit costs. Whether TIV or QIV is the most cost-effective alternative heavily depends on influenza B burden among subpopulations targeted forvaccination in addition to country-specific willingness-to-pay thresholds and budgetary impact

Understanding and predicting seasonal-to-interannual climate variability - the producer perspective

Seasonal prediction is based on changes in the probability of weather statistics due to changes in slowly varying forcings such as sea surface temperature anomalies, most notably those associated with El Niňo–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, seasonal weather can be perturbed by many factors, and is very much influenced by internal variability of the atmosphere, so comprehensive models are needed to identify what can be predicted. The predictability and probabilistic nature of seasonal forecasts is explained with suitable examples. Current capabilities for seasonal prediction that have grown out of work done in the research community at both national and international levels are described. Dynamical seasonal prediction systems are operational or quasi-operational at a number of forecasting centres around the world. Requirements for seasonal prediction include initial conditions, particularly for the upper ocean but also other parts of the climate system; high quality models of the ocean-atmosphere-land system; and data for verification and calibration. The wider context of seasonal prediction and seamless forecasting is explained. Recommendations for the future of seasonal prediction and climate services are given

Three-dimensional CFD simulations with large displacement of the geometries using a connectivity-change moving mesh approach

This paper deals with three-dimensional (3D) numerical simulations involving 3D moving geometries with large displacements on unstructured meshes. Such simulations are of great value to industry, but remain very time-consuming. A robust moving mesh algorithm coupling an elasticity-like mesh deformation solution and mesh optimizations was proposed in previous works, which removes the need for global remeshing when performing large displacements. The optimizations, and in particular generalized edge/face swapping, preserve the initial quality of the mesh throughout the simulation. We propose to integrate an Arbitrary Lagrangian Eulerian compressible flow solver into this process to demonstrate its capabilities in a full CFD computation context. This solver relies on a local enforcement of the discrete geometric conservation law to preserve the order of accuracy of the time integration. The displacement of the geometries is either imposed, or driven by fluid–structure interaction (FSI). In the latter case, the six degrees of freedom approach for rigid bodies is considered. Finally, several 3D imposed-motion and FSI examples are given to validate the proposed approach, both in academic and industrial configurations

No more CKY two-forms in the NHEK

We show that in the near-horizon limit of a Kerr-NUT-AdS black hole, the space of conformal Killing-Yano two-forms does not enhance and remains of dimension two. The same holds for an analogous polar limit in the case of extremal NUT charge. We also derive the conformal Killing-Yano $p$-form equation for any background in arbitrary dimension in the form of parallel transport.Comment: 36 pages, 12 pdf figures, v2: minor change