Dynamic Control of Explore/Exploit Trade-Off In Bayesian Optimization

Bayesian optimization offers the possibility of optimizing black-box operations not accessible through traditional techniques. The success of Bayesian optimization methods such as Expected Improvement (EI) are significantly affected by the degree of trade-off between exploration and exploitation. Too much exploration can lead to inefficient optimization protocols, whilst too much exploitation leaves the protocol open to strong initial biases, and a high chance of getting stuck in a local minimum. Typically, a constant margin is used to control this trade-off, which results in yet another hyper-parameter to be optimized. We propose contextual improvement as a simple, yet effective heuristic to counter this - achieving a one-shot optimization strategy. Our proposed heuristic can be swiftly calculated and improves both the speed and robustness of discovery of optimal solutions. We demonstrate its effectiveness on both synthetic and real world problems and explore the unaccounted for uncertainty in the pre-determination of search hyperparameters controlling explore-exploit trade-off.Comment: Accepted for publication in the proceedings of 2018 Computing Conferenc

Adverse health effects of low levels of perceived control in Swedish and Russian community samples

Background: This cross-sectional study of two middle-aged community samples from Sweden and Russia examined the distribution of perceived control scores in the two populations, investigated differences in individual control items between the populations, and assessed the association between perceived control and self-rated health. Methods: The samples consisted of men and women aged 45–69 years, randomly selected from national and local population registers in southeast Sweden (n = 1007) and in Novosibirsk, Russia (n = 9231). Data were collected by structured questionnaires and clinical measures at a visit to a clinic. The questionnaire covered socioeconomic and lifestyle factors, societal circumstances, and psychosocial measures. Self-rated health was assessed by standard single question with five possible answers, with a cut-off point at the top two alternatives. Results: 32.2 % of Swedish men and women reported good health, compared to 10.3 % of Russian men and women. Levels of perceived control were also significantly lower in Russia than in Sweden and varied by socio-demographic parameters in both populations. Sub-item analysis of the control questionnaire revealed substantial differences between the populations both in the perception of control over life and over health. Logistic regression analysis revealed that the odds ratios (OR) of poor self-rated health were significantly increased in men and women with low perceived control in both countries (OR between 2.61 and 4.26). Conclusion: Although the cross-sectional design does not allow causal inference, these results support the view that perceived control influences health, and that it may mediate the link between socioeconomic hardship and health

Determinants of self rated health and mortality in Russia – are they the same?

BACKGROUND: Research into Russia's health crisis during the 1990s includes studies of both mortality and self-rated health, assuming that the determinants of the two are the same. In this paper, we tested this assumption, using data from a single study on both outcomes and socioeconomic, lifestyle and psychological predictor variables. METHODS: We analysed data from 7 rounds (1994-2001) of the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey, a panel study of a general population sample (11,482 adults aged over 18 living in households of 2 or more people). Self-rated health was measured on a 5 point scale and dichotomised by combining responses "very poor" and "poor" into poor health. Deaths (n = 782) during a mean follow up of 4.1 years were reported by another household member. Associations between several predictor variables and poor or very poor self-rated health and mortality were measured using logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards analysis respectively. RESULTS: Poor self-rated health was significantly associated with mortality; hazard ratios, compared with very good, good or average health, were 1.69 (1.36-2.10) in men and 1.74 (1.38-2.20) in women. Low education predicted both mortality and poor self-rated health, but income predicted subjective health more strongly. Smoking doubled the risk of death but was unrelated to subjective wellbeing. Frequent drinkers experienced greater mortality than occasional drinkers, despite reporting better health. In contrast, dissatisfaction with life predicted poor self-rated health, but not mortality. CONCLUSION: Differences between the predictors of subjective health and mortality, even though these outcomes were strongly associated, suggest that influences on subjective health are not restricted to serious disease. These findings also suggest the presence of risk factors for relatively sudden deaths in apparently well people, although further research is required. Meanwhile, caution is required when using studies of self-rated health in Russia to understand the determinants of mortality

Determinants of cardiovascular disease and other non-communicable diseases in Central and Eastern Europe: Rationale and design of the HAPIEE study

BACKGROUND: Over the last five decades, a wide gap in mortality opened between western and eastern Europe; this gap increased further after the dramatic fluctuations in mortality in the former Soviet Union (FSU) in the 1990s. Recent rapid increases in mortality among lower socioeconomic groups in eastern Europe suggests that socioeconomic factors are powerful determinants of mortality in these populations but the more proximal factors linking the social conditions with health remain unclear. The HAPIEE (Health, Alcohol and Psychosocial factors In Eastern Europe) study is a prospective cohort study designed to investigate the effect of classical and non-conventional risk factors and social and psychosocial factors on cardiovascular and other non-communicable diseases in eastern Europe and the FSU. The main hypotheses of the HAPIEE study relate to the role of alcohol, nutrition and psychosocial factors. METHODS AND DESIGN: The HAPIEE study comprises four cohorts in Russia, Poland, the Czech Republic and Lithuania; each consists of a random sample of men and women aged 45–69 years old at baseline, stratified by gender and 5 year age groups, and selected from population registers. The total planned sample size is 36,500 individuals. Baseline information from the Czech Republic, Russia and Poland was collected in 2002–2005 and includes data on health, lifestyle, diet (food frequency), socioeconomic circumstances and psychosocial factors. A short examination included measurement of anthropometric parameters, blood pressure, lung function and cognitive function, and a fasting venous blood sample. Re-examination of the cohorts in 2006–2008 focuses on healthy ageing and economic well-being using face-to-face computer assisted personal interviews. Recruitment of the Lithuanian cohort is ongoing, with baseline and re-examination data being collected simultaneously. All cohorts are being followed up for mortality and non-fatal cardiovascular events. DISCUSSION: The HAPIEE study will provide important new insights into social, behavioural and biological factors influencing mortality and cardiovascular risk in the region

Household item ownership and self-rated health: material and psychosocial explanations

BACKGROUND: There has been an ongoing debate whether the effects of socioeconomic factors on health are due to absolute poverty and material factors or to relative deprivation and psychosocial factors. In the present analyses, we examined the importance for health of material factors, which may have a direct effect on health, and of those that may affect health indirectly, through psychosocial mechanisms. METHODS: Random national samples of men and women in Hungary (n = 973) and Poland (n = 1141) were interviewed (response rates 58% and 59%, respectively). The subjects reported their self-rated health, socioeconomic circumstances, including ownership of different household items, and perceived control over life. Household items were categorised as "basic needs", "socially oriented", and "luxury". We examined the association between the ownership of different groups of items and self-rated health. Since the lists of household items were different in Hungary and Poland, we conducted parallel identical analyses of the Hungarian and Polish data. RESULTS: The overall prevalence of poor or very poor health was 13% in Poland and 25% in Hungary. Education, material deprivation and the number of household items were all associated with poor health in bivariate analyses. All three groups of household items were positively related to self-rated health in age-adjusted analyses. The relation of basic needs items to poor health disappeared after controlling for other socioeconomic variables (mainly material deprivation). The relation of socially oriented and luxury items to poor health, however, persisted in multivariate models. The results were similar in both datasets. CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest that health is influenced by both material and psychosocial aspects of socioeconomic factors

Relationship between Depressive Symptoms and Weather Conditions

Background: Weather is a well-known factor worldwide in psychiatric problems such as depression, with the elderly and females being particularly susceptible. The aim of this study was to detect associations between the risk of depressive symptoms (DS) and weather variables. Methods: 6937 participants were assessed in the baseline survey of the Health Alcohol Psychosocial Factors in Eastern Europe (HAPIEE) study during 2006–2008. To assess the risk of DS, a multivariate logistic model was created with predictors such as socio-demographic factors, health behaviors, and weather variables. Results: DS were found in 23.4% of the respondents, in 15.6% of males and in 29.9% in females. A higher risk of DS (by 25%) was associated with November–December, a rising wind speed, and relative humidity (RH) 14.2◦ C) predominant during May–September had a protective impact. A higher risk of DS in males was associated with lower atmospheric pressure (<1009 hPa) 2 days before. Females were more sensitive to the monthly variation, snowfall, and RH. Conclusions: The findings of our study suggest that some levels of weather variables have a statistically significant effect on DS

The effects of socioeconomic status and indices of physical environment on reduced birth weight and preterm births in Eastern Massachusetts

This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.Background: Air pollution and social characteristics have been shown to affect indicators of health. While use of spatial methods to estimate exposure to air pollution has increased the power to detect effects, questions have been raised about potential for confounding by social factors.Methods: A study of singleton births in Eastern Massachusetts was conducted between 1996 and 2002 to examine the association between indicators of traffic, land use, individual and area-based socioeconomic measures (SEM), and birth outcomes ( birth weight, small for gestational age and preterm births), in a two-level hierarchical model.Results: We found effects of both individual ( education, race, prenatal care index) and area-based ( median household income) SEM with all birth outcomes. The associations for traffic and land use variables were mainly seen with birth weight, with an exception for an effect of cumulative traffic density on small for gestational age. Race/ethnicity of mother was an important predictor of birth outcomes and a strong confounder for both area-based SEM and indices of physical environment. The effects of traffic and land use differed by level of education and median household income.Conclusion: Overall, the findings of the study suggested greater likelihood of reduced birth weight and preterm births among the more socially disadvantaged, and a greater risk of reduced birth weight associated with traffic exposures. Results revealed the importance of controlling simultaneously for SEM and environmental exposures as the way to better understand determinants of health.This work is supported by the Harvard Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Center, Grants R827353 and R-832416, and National Institute for Environmental Health Science (NIEHS) ES-0002

Magnetic Behavior of a Mixed Ising Ferrimagnetic Model in an Oscillating Magnetic Field

The magnetic behavior of a mixed Ising ferrimagnetic system on a square lattice, in which the two interpenetrating square sublattices have spins +- 1/2 and spins +-1,0, in the presence of an oscillating magnetic field has been studied with Monte Carlo techniques. The model includes nearest and next-nearest neighbor interactions, a crystal field and the oscillating external field. By studying the hysteretic response of this model to an oscillating field we found that it qualitatively reproduces the increasing of the coercive field at the compensation temperature observed in real ferrimagnets, a crucial feature for magneto-optical applications. This behavior is basically independent of the frequency of the field and the size of the system. The magnetic response of the system is related to a dynamical transition from a paramagnetic to a ferromagnetic phase and to the different temperature dependence of the relaxation times of both sublattices.Comment: 10 figures. To be published in Phys.Rev