Confidence regions for the multinomial parameter with small sample size

Consider the observation of n iid realizations of an experiment with d>1 possible outcomes, which corresponds to a single observation of a multinomial distribution M(n,p) where p is an unknown discrete distribution on {1,...,d}. In many applications, the construction of a confidence region for p when n is small is crucial. This concrete challenging problem has a long history. It is well known that the confidence regions built from asymptotic statistics do not have good coverage when n is small. On the other hand, most available methods providing non-asymptotic regions with controlled coverage are limited to the binomial case d=2. In the present work, we propose a new method valid for any d>1. This method provides confidence regions with controlled coverage and small volume, and consists of the inversion of the "covering collection"' associated with level-sets of the likelihood. The behavior when d/n tends to infinity remains an interesting open problem beyond the scope of this work.Comment: Accepted for publication in Journal of the American Statistical Association (JASA

Improved modelling of Siberian river flow through the use of an alternative frozen soil hydrology scheme in a land surface model

A parameterisation to incorporate the effects of frozen soil on modelled hydrology is described and implemented within a land surface model, the Joint UK Land Surface Environment Simulator. It is shown to generally improve the modelled flow of Siberian rivers compared to observations, specifically in seasons of freezing or thawing soil. Most noticeably, the revised model increases the snowmelt flow peak by 26–100% compared to the control model thereby better matching observed flows. The model physics resulting in the changes to river flow are discussed and attention is given to the effect of inaccuracies in snowfall driving data which can hinder the comparison of new model processes

The Third Way for the Third Sector: Using Design to Transfer Knowledge and Improve Service in a Voluntary Community Sector Organisation

This paper describes a two-year Knowledge Transfer Partnership that concluded in September 2011. Knowledge Transfer Partnerships (KTP) is a UK-wide activity that helps organisations to improve their competitiveness and productivity by making better use of knowledge, technology and skills within universities, colleges and research organisations. This paper details the outcome of a KTP between Age UK Newcastle and Northumbria University’s School of Design that aimed to use Design approaches to improve the charity’s services. This paper will describe the recent context for organisations operating in the Voluntary Community Sector and discuss the relevance of a Design approach to both the improvement of customer services in this circumstance, as well as the transfer of knowledge to a capacity-starved organisation. It will also document how Design was used to achieve both of these aims, and the resulting impact of this engagement on the organisation and stakeholders

TELLUS: A combined surface temperature, soil moisture and evaporation mapping approach

There are no author-identified significant results in this report

An exactly solvable coarse-grained model for species diversity

We present novel analytical results about ecosystem species diversity that stem from a proposed coarse grained neutral model based on birth-death processes. The relevance of the problem lies in the urgency for understanding and synthesizing both theoretical results of ecological neutral theory and empirical evidence on species diversity preservation. Neutral model of biodiversity deals with ecosystems in the same trophic level where per-capita vital rates are assumed to be species-independent. Close-form analytical solutions for neutral theory are obtained within a coarse-grained model, where the only input is the species persistence time distribution. Our results pertain: the probability distribution function of the number of species in the ecosystem both in transient and stationary states; the n-points connected time correlation function; and the survival probability, definned as the distribution of time-spans to local extinction for a species randomly sampled from the community. Analytical predictions are also tested on empirical data from a estuarine fish ecosystem. We find that emerging properties of the ecosystem are very robust and do not depend on specific details of the model, with implications on biodiversity and conservation biology.Comment: 20 pages, 4 figures. To appear in Journal of Statistichal Mechanic

Upgrading School Buildings in Mexico with Social Participation: The Better Schools Programme

This review of Mexico’s Better Schools Programme was conducted in 2012 by the OECD Centre for Effective Learning Environments (CELE). In 2008, the federal government created the Programme to repair and improve the physical infrastructure of schools for basic education throughout Mexico. A key characteristic of the programme is social participation and the engagement of the each school community. The review team’s recommendations offer lessons to all governments investing in educational infrastructure to improve the quality of education