34 research outputs found

    Subjectivity in Failure Mode Effects Analysis (FMEA) Severity Classification within a Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM) Context

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    This research paper investigated subjectivity in the severity rating of failure modes within a risk analysis process. Although several risk analysis processes can be utilized, the study considered the application of Failure Modes Effects Analysis (FMEA) or Failure Modes Effects and Criticality Analysis (FMECA) due to its common use within the Aerospace Industry. The study investigated both differences in severity selection given varying amounts of experience as well as any association between severity selection and the provided input information. The main goal of the research was to investigate the impact of data quality on severity selection and to identify factors that impact the severity score, and thus greatly influence the overall risk reduction strategies both in new acquisition and fielded systems. Participants consisted of both experienced and inexperienced FMEA/FMECA users. Participants were tasked to select a severity rating for nine failure modes (across three trials) assuming a typical severity scale. Different input data sets were provided in each trial to ascertain if an association exits between severity class selection and the amount of information available during analysis. This study provided evidence that risk analysis participants are subjective during severity rating selection when utilizing FMEA/FMECA processes. Users who are provided with irrelevant failure and mishap data tend to select similar severity levels; however, when no information is provided to users, user selections will be dramatically more conservative. Participants appear to select similar severity ratings regardless of the relevancy of the provided data

    SIMILARITY-BASED MULTI-SOURCE TRANSFER LEARNING APPROACH FOR TIME SERIES CLASSIFICATION

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    This study aims to develop an effective method of classification concerning time series signals for machine state prediction to advance predictive maintenance (PdM). Conventional machine learning (ML) algorithms are widely adopted in PdM, however, most existing methods assume that the training (source) and testing (target) data follow the same distribution, and that labeled data are available in both source and target domains. For real-world PdM applications, the heterogeneity in machine original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), operating conditions, facility environment, and maintenance records collectively lead to heterogeneous distribution for data collected from different machines. This will significantly limit the performance of conventional ML algorithms in PdM. Moreover, labeling data is generally costly and time-consuming. Finally, industrial processes incorporate complex conditions, and unpredictable breakdown modes lead to extreme complexities for PdM. In this study, similarity-based multi-source transfer learning (SiMuS-TL) approach is proposed for real-time classification of time series signals. A new domain, called "mixed domain," is established to model the hidden similarities among the multiple sources and the target. The proposed SiMuS-TL model mainly includes three key steps: 1) learning group-based feature patterns, 2) developing group-based pre-trained models, and 3) weight transferring. The proposed SiMuS-TL model is validated by observing the state of the rotating machinery using a dataset collected on the Skill boss manufacturing system, publicly available standard bearing datasets, Case Western Reserve University (CWRU), and Paderborn University (PU) bearing datasets. The results of the performance comparison demonstrate that the proposed SiMuS-TL method outperformed conventional Support Vector Machine (SVM), Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and Transfer learning with neural networks (TLNN) without similarity-based transfer learning methods

    Stochastic modeling and prognostic analysis of complex systems using condition-based real-time sensor signals

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    This dissertation presents a stochastic framework for modeling the degradation processes of components in complex engineering systems using sensor based signals. Chapters 1 and 2 discuses the challenges and the existing literature in monitoring and predicting the performance of complex engineering systems. Chapter 3 presents the degradation model with the absorbing failure threshold for a single unit and the RLD estimation using the first-passage-time approach. Subsequently, we develop the estimate of the RLD using the first-passage-time approach for two cases: information prior distributions and non-informative prior distributions. A case study is presented using real-world data from rolling elements bearing applications. Chapter 4 presents a stochastic methodology for modeling degradation signals from components functioning under dynamically evolving environmental conditions. We utilize in-situ sensor signals related to the degradation process, as well as the environmental conditions, to predict and continuously update, in real-time, the distribution of a component’s residual lifetime. Two distinct models are presented. The first considers future environmental profiles that evolve in a deterministic manner while the second assumes the environment evolves as a continuous-time Markov chain. Chapters 5 and 6 generalize the failure-dependent models and develop a general model that examines the interactions among the degradation processes of interconnected components/subsystems. In particular, we model how the degradation level of one component affects the degradation rates of other components in the system. Hereafter, we refer to this type of component-to-component interaction caused by their stochastic dependence as degradation-rate-interaction (DRI). Chapter 5 focuses on the scenario in which these changes occur in a discrete manner, whereas, Chapter 6 focuses on the scenario, in which DRIs occur in a continuous manner. We demonstrate that incorporating the effects of component interactions significantly improves the prediction accuracy of RLDs. Finally, we outline the conclusion remarks and a future work plan in Chapter 7.Ph.D
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