158 research outputs found

    Potential Output Estimations for Hungary: A Survey of Different Approaches

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    This paper is a comprehensive analysis of Hungary’s potential output. Since the concept of potential output is not unique, we present various interpretations of potential GDP, along with a large set of techniques for estimating it. Various estimates are presented and robustness analyses are performed. Finally, an illustrative scenario is outlined for the forthcoming few years.potential output, output gap, production function, business cycle, filtering.

    Potential output estimations for Hungary: A survey of different approaches

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    This paper is a comprehensive analysis of Hungary's potential output. Since the concept of potential output is not unique, we present various interpretations of potential GDP, along with a large set of techniques for estimating it. Various estimates are presented and robustness analyses are performed. Finally, an illustrative scenario is outlined for the forthcoming few years

    Detection of the evolutionary stages of variables in M3

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    The large number of variables in M3 provides a unique opportunity to study an extensive sample of variables with the same apparent distance modulus. Recent, high accuracy CCD time series of the variables show that according to their mean magnitudes and light curve shapes, the variables belong to four separate groups. Comparing the properties of these groups (magnitudes and periods) with horizontal branch evolutionary models, we conclude that these samples can be unambiguously identified with different stages of the horizontal branch stellar evolution. Stars close to the zero age horizontal branch (ZAHB) show Oosterhoff I type properties, while the brightest stars have Oosterhoff II type statistics regarding their mean periods and RRab/RRc number ratios. This finding strengthens the earlier suggestion of Lee et al. (1990) connecting the Oosterhoff dichotomy to evolutionary effects, however, it is unexpected to find large samples of both of the Oosterhoff type within a single cluster, which is, moreover, the prototype of the Oosterhoff I class globular clusters. The very slight difference between the Fourier parameters of the stars (at a given period) in the three fainter samples spanning over about 0.15 mag range in M_V points to the limitations of any empirical methods which aim to determine accurate absolute magnitudes of RR Lyrae stars solely from the Fourier parameters of the light curves.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figures. Submitted to Astrophys. J. Letter

    The Hungarian Quarterly Projection Model (NEM)

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    This document gives a detailed account of the current version of the Hungarian Quarterly Projection Model (NEM). It describes the main building blocks, presents the forecast performance of the model and, finally, it illustrates the responses to the most important shocks the Hungarian economy may face. This version of the model is used to produce the Bank’s quarterly projections, as well as to perform simulations and scenario analyses.econometric modelling, forecasting, simulation.

    The Hungarian quarterly projection model (NEM)

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    This document gives a detailed account of the current version of the Hungarian Quarterly Projection Model (NEM). It describes the main building blocks, presents the forecast performance of the model and, finally, it illustrates the responses to the most important shocks the Hungarian economy may face. This version of the model is used to produce the Bank's quarterly projections, as well as to perform simulations and scenario analyses
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