Area deprivation across the life course and physical capability in mid-life: findings from the 1946 British Birth Cohort

Physical capability in later life is influenced by factors occurring across the life course, yet exposures to area conditions have only been examined cross-sectionally. Data from the National Survey of Health and Development, a longitudinal study of a 1946 British birth cohort, were used to estimate associations of area deprivation (defined as percentage of employed people working in partly skilled or unskilled occupations) at ages 4, 26, and 53 years (residential addresses linked to census data in 1950, 1972, and 1999) with 3 measures of physical capability at age 53 years: grip strength, standing balance, and chair-rise time. Cross-classified multilevel models with individuals nested within areas at the 3 ages showed that models assessing a single time point underestimate total area contributions to physical capability. For balance and chair-rise performance, associations with area deprivation in midlife were robust to adjustment for individual socioeconomic position and prior area deprivation (mean change for a 1-standard-deviation increase: balance, −7.4% (95% confidence interval (CI): −12.8, −2.8); chair rise, 2.1% (95% CI: −0.1, 4.3)). In addition, area deprivation in childhood was related to balance after adjustment for childhood socioeconomic position (−5.1%, 95% CI: −8.7, −1.6). Interventions aimed at reducing midlife disparities in physical capability should target the socioeconomic environment of individuals—for standing balance, as early as childhood

Fractal and Transfractal Recursive Scale-Free Nets

We explore the concepts of self-similarity, dimensionality, and (multi)scaling in a new family of recursive scale-free nets that yield themselves to exact analysis through renormalization techniques. All nets in this family are self-similar and some are fractals - possessing a finite fractal dimension - while others are small world (their diameter grows logarithmically with their size) and are infinite-dimensional. We show how a useful measure of "transfinite" dimension may be defined and applied to the small world nets. Concerning multiscaling, we show how first-passage time for diffusion and resistance between hub (the most connected nodes) scale differently than for other nodes. Despite the different scalings, the Einstein relation between diffusion and conductivity holds separately for hubs and nodes. The transfinite exponents of small world nets obey Einstein relations analogous to those in fractal nets.Comment: Includes small revisions and references added as result of readers' feedbac

Designing Host and Network Sensors to Mitigate the Insider Threat

We propose a design for insider threat detection that combines an array of complementary techniques that aims to detect evasive adversaries. We are motivated by real world incidents and our experience with building isolated detectors: such standalone mechanisms are often easily identified and avoided by malefactors. Our work-in-progress combines host-based user-event monitoring sensors with trap-based decoys and remote network detectors to track and correlate insider activity. We identify several challenges in scaling up, deploying, and validating our architecture in real environments

Prediction of immediate ventricular arrhythmias after coronary artery ligation

AbstractObjectives. Our aim was to test the hypothesis that increased beat to beat morphologic variations in the body surface electrocardiogram (ECG) are associated with fragmented diastolic electrical activity that appears after coronary artery ligation and to correlate the appearance of spontaneous ventricular fibrillation after coronary ligation with the magnitude of the ECG beat to beat variability.Background. Unstable and variably delayed electrical activation precedes the development of ventricular fibrillation in dogs with acute ischemia. Detection of these highly variable low amplitude signals from the body surface is currently impossible. We have developed a system designed to measure the degree of beat to beat variability of the ECG.Methods. With high fidelity electrocardiography, subtle beat to beat ECG morphologic variations were detected in epicardial and body surface electrograms and quantified as the variance of the ECG voltage at specific points of the cardiac cycle. The ratio of the variance at the QRS offset to that of the QRS onset (beat to beat variability index) was then calculated.Results. Ventricular fibrillation developed in 12 of 27 dogs after left anterior descending coronary artery ligation. In 7 of the 12 dogs it occurred immediately (<15 min) after ligation; in the other 5 it developed late (15 min) after ligation. Dogs with subsequently immediate ventricular fibrillation had a significantly higher beat to beat variability index than that of dogs with late or no ventricular fibrillation both before coronary ligation (4.7 ± 1.4 vs. 1.1 ± 0.2 and 0.8 ± 0.1, respectively, p < 0.001) and after ligation (6.4 ± 2.6, 1.0 ± 0.6 and 1.2 ± 0.6, respectively, p < 0.001). In dogs that developed ventricular fibrillation immediately after coronary ligation, the arrhythmia was preceded by fragmented diastolic electrical activity on the epicardial electrogram and a simultaneous increase in the beat to beat morphologic variability of the terminal portion of the body surface ECG QRS complex.Conclusions. Beat to beat QRS offset morphologic variations appear to be increased before and further increased after coronary artery ligation in dogs that develop ventricular fibrillation immediately after ligation. Increased beat to beat variability index may be associated with the presence of electrophysiologic instability and can predict early ventricular fibrillation

Model selection of the effect of binary exposures over the life course (Epidemiology (2015) 26 (719-726))

Epidemiologists are often interested in examining the effect on a later-life outcome of an exposure measured repeatedly over the life course. When different hypotheses for this effect are proposed by competing theories, it is important to identify those most supported by observed data as a first step toward estimating causal associations. One method is to compare goodness-of-fit of hypothesized models with a saturated model, but it is unclear how to judge the “best” out of two hypothesized models that both pass criteria for a good fit. We developed a new method using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator to identify which of a small set of hypothesized models explains most of the observed outcome variation. We analyzed a cohort study with repeated measures of socioeconomic position (exposure) through childhood, early- and mid-adulthood, and body mass index (outcome) measured in mid-adulthood. We confirmed previous findings regarding support or lack of support for the following hypotheses: accumulation (number of times exposed), three critical periods (only exposure in childhood, early- or mid-adulthood), and social mobility (transition from low to high socioeconomic position). Simulations showed that our least absolute shrinkage and selection operator approach identified the most suitable hypothesized model with high probability in moderately sized samples, but with lower probability for hypotheses involving change in exposure or highly correlated exposures. Identifying a single, simple hypothesis that represents the specified knowledge of the life course association allows more precise definition of the causal effect of interest

Priority diffusion model in lattices and complex networks

We introduce a model for diffusion of two classes of particles ($A$ and $B$) with priority: where both species are present in the same site the motion of $A$'s takes precedence over that of $B$'s. This describes realistic situations in wireless and communication networks. In regular lattices the diffusion of the two species is normal but the $B$ particles are significantly slower, due to the presence of the $A$ particles. From the fraction of sites where the $B$ particles can move freely, which we compute analytically, we derive the diffusion coefficients of the two species. In heterogeneous networks the fraction of sites where $B$ is free decreases exponentially with the degree of the sites. This, coupled with accumulation of particles in high-degree nodes leads to trapping of the low priority particles in scale-free networks.Comment: 5 pages, 3 figure

Resilience of the Internet to random breakdowns

A common property of many large networks, including the Internet, is that the connectivity of the various nodes follows a scale-free power-law distribution, P(k)=ck^-a. We study the stability of such networks with respect to crashes, such as random removal of sites. Our approach, based on percolation theory, leads to a general condition for the critical fraction of nodes, p_c, that need to be removed before the network disintegrates. We show that for a<=3 the transition never takes place, unless the network is finite. In the special case of the Internet (a=2.5), we find that it is impressively robust, where p_c is approximately 0.99.Comment: latex, 3 pages, 1 figure (eps), explanations added, Phys. Rev. Lett., in pres