The Chilean Pension Reform Turns 25: Lessons From the Social Protection Survey

In 1980, Chile dramatically reformed its retirement system, replacing what was an old insolvent PAYGO program with a new structure that relies heavily on funded defined contribution individual accounts. In addition, eligibility and benefit requirements were standardized, and a safety net for old-age poverty was strengthened. Twenty-five years after this reform, the Chilean model is being re-assessed, in terms of coverage, contribution, investment, and retirement benefit outcomes. This paper introduces a recently-developed longitudinal survey of individual respondents in Chile, the Social Protection Survey (or Encuesta de Previsión Social, EPS), and illustrates some uses of this survey for microeconomic analysis of key aspects of the Chilean system.

The genetic basis for panicle trait variation in switchgrass (Panicum virgatum)

Key message: We investigate the genetic basis of panicle architecture in switchgrass in two mapping populations across a latitudinal gradient, and find many stable, repeatable genetic effects and limited genetic interactions with the environment. Abstract: Grass species exhibit large diversity in panicle architecture influenced by genes, the environment, and their interaction. The genetic study of panicle architecture in perennial grasses is limited. In this study, we evaluate the genetic basis of panicle architecture including panicle length, primary branching number, and secondary branching number in an outcrossed switchgrass QTL population grown across ten field sites in the central USA through multi-environment mixed QTL analysis. We also evaluate genetic effects in a diversity panel of switchgrass grown at three of the ten field sites using genome-wide association (GWAS) and multivariate adaptive shrinkage. Furthermore, we search for candidate genes underlying panicle traits in both of these independent mapping populations. Overall, 18 QTL were detected in the QTL mapping population for the three panicle traits, and 146 unlinked genomic regions in the diversity panel affected one or more panicle trait. Twelve of the QTL exhibited consistent effects (i.e., no QTL by environment interactions or no QTL × E), and most (four of six) of the effects with QTL × E exhibited site-specific effects. Most (59.3%) significant partially linked diversity panel SNPs had significant effects in all panicle traits and all field sites and showed pervasive pleiotropy and limited environment interactions. Panicle QTL co-localized with significant SNPs found using GWAS, providing additional power to distinguish between true and false associations in the diversity panel

HIV Epidemic Appraisals for Assisting in the Design of Effective Prevention Programmes: Shifting the Paradigm Back to Basics

To design HIV prevention programmes, it is critical to understand the temporal and geographic aspects of the local epidemic and to address the key behaviours that drive HIV transmission. Two methods have been developed to appraise HIV epidemics and guide prevention strategies. The numerical proxy method classifies epidemics based on current HIV prevalence thresholds. The Modes of Transmission (MOT) model estimates the distribution of incidence over one year among risk-groups. Both methods focus on the current state of an epidemic and provide short-term metrics which may not capture the epidemiologic drivers. Through a detailed analysis of country and sub-national data, we explore the limitations of the two traditional methods and propose an alternative approach.We compared outputs of the traditional methods in five countries for which results were published, and applied the numeric and MOT model to India and six districts within India. We discovered three limitations of the current methods for epidemic appraisal: (1) their results failed to identify the key behaviours that drive the epidemic; (2) they were difficult to apply to local epidemics with heterogeneity across district-level administrative units; and (3) the MOT model was highly sensitive to input parameters, many of which required extraction from non-regional sources. We developed an alternative decision-tree framework for HIV epidemic appraisals, based on a qualitative understanding of epidemiologic drivers, and demonstrated its applicability in India. The alternative framework offered a logical algorithm to characterize epidemics; it required minimal but key data.Traditional appraisals that utilize the distribution of prevalent and incident HIV infections in the short-term could misguide prevention priorities and potentially impede efforts to halt the trajectory of the HIV epidemic. An approach that characterizes local transmission dynamics provides a potentially more effective tool with which policy makers can design intervention programmes