The real exchange rate process and its real effects: The cases of Mexico and the USA

Exchange rate management is a salient macroeconomic issue, especially in developing countries. In this paper, we study political economy factors that may affect the real exchange rate (RER) process and the real economic effects of the RER. We review recent literature on the effects of elections on the exchange rate, and adapt Ball’s (1992) model to show that uncertainty about the future course of policy may make more appreciated RER’s less predictable. We also review the literature on the real effect of RER appreciations and of RER uncertainty. We then construct a simultaneous GARCH-M model of the joint determination of the RER and output capable of testing our hypotheses simultaneously in a single model. We estimate the model using data first from Mexico, a developing country, and the US. In Mexico we find that elections significantly affect the evolution of the RER, that more appreciated RERs are less predictable, that RER depreciations lower output growth and that RER uncertainty lowers output growth, even when controlling for its wellstudied effect on trade. By contrast, none of these effects are found in the US data.real exchange rate volatility, economic growth, electoral cycle

Graded Differential Geometry of Graded Matrix Algebras

We study the graded derivation-based noncommutative differential geometry of the $Z_2$-graded algebra ${\bf M}(n| m)$ of complex $(n+m)\times(n+m)$-matrices with the ``usual block matrix grading'' (for $n\neq m$). Beside the (infinite-dimensional) algebra of graded forms the graded Cartan calculus, graded symplectic structure, graded vector bundles, graded connections and curvature are introduced and investigated. In particular we prove the universality of the graded derivation-based first-order differential calculus and show, that ${\bf M}(n|m)$ is a ``noncommutative graded manifold'' in a stricter sense: There is a natural body map and the cohomologies of ${\bf M}(n|m)$ and its body coincide (as in the case of ordinary graded manifolds).Comment: 21 pages, LATE

On the Potential of Leptonic Minimal Flavour Violation

Minimal Flavour Violation can be realized in several ways in the lepton sector due to the possibility of Majorana neutrino mass terms. We derive the scalar potential for the fields whose background values are the Yukawa couplings, for the simplest See-Saw model with just two right-handed neutrinos, and explore its minima. The Majorana character plays a distinctive role: the minimum of the potential allows for large mixing angles -in contrast to the simplest quark case- and predicts a maximal Majorana phase. This points in turn to a strong correlation between neutrino mass hierarchy and mixing pattern.Comment: 6 pages; version published on Physics Letters

Standard Model Baryogenesis

Simply on CP arguments, we argue against a Standard Model explanation of baryogenesis via the charge transport mechanism. A CP-asymmetry is found in the reflection coefficients of quarks hitting the electroweak phase boundary created during a first order phase transition. The problem is analyzed both in an academic zero temperature case and in the realistic finite temperature one. At finite temperature, a crucial role is played by the damping rate of quasi-quarks in a hot plasma, which induces loss of spatial coherence and suppresses reflection on the boundary even at tree-level. The resulting baryon asymmetry is many orders of magnitude below what observation requires. We comment as well on related works.Comment: 10 pages, CERN-TH. 7368/94, LPTHE Orsay-94/71, HD-THEP-94-2

Consecuencias fiscales y económicas del reinado de Felipe I a través de las Relaciones de Luis Cabrera de Córdoba

El análisis de las Relaciones de las cosas ocurridas en la Corte de España, escritas por Luis Cabrera de Córdoba entre 1599 y 1614, permite al autor exponer las repercusiones de las directrices políticas y económicas esbozadas en las últimas dCcadas del reinado de Felipe II. La vigencia de muchos de los supuestos fiscales del reinado anterior, pese al carácter cada vez más irreparable de la crisis castellana en las primeras décadas del siglo XVII, se plantea mediante los datos proporcionados por la crónica. Asimismo, las noticias recogidas por Cabrera de Córdoba facilitan una mejor comprensión de las relaciones entre la Monarquía y los reinos de la Corona de Aragón; por otro lado, posibilitan una aproximación al sistema financiero peninsular y a los crecientes problemas ocasionados por la globalización de la economía imperial.L'analisi de les Relaciones de las cosas ocurridas en la Corte de España, escrites per Luis Cabrera de Córdoba entre 1599 i 1614, permet a I'autor exposar les repercusions de les directrius polítiques i economiques esbossades a les ultimes decades del regnat de Felip II. La vigencia de molts dels suposits fiscals del regnat anterior, malgrat el panorama irreparable de crisi a nivel1 castella a les primeres decades del segle XVII, es planteja mitejancan les dades proporcionades per la crbnica. Alhora, les noticies recollides per Cabrera de Córdoba faciliten una millor comprensió de les relacions entre la Monarquia i els regnes de la Corona d'Aragó; i possibiliten, a més, una aproximació al sistema financer peninsular i als creixents problemes ocassionats per la globalització de I'economia imperial.Through the analysis of Luis Cabrera de Córdoba's book entitled Relaciones de las cosas ocurridas en la corte de España, 1599-1614 (Accounts of events happened in the Spanish Court, 1599-1614), Bernat Hernandez describes the repercussions of the political and economic decisions taken in the last decades of the reign of Philip II of Spain. In spite of the Castilian crisis' irreversible character during the first decades of the XVII Century, Cabrera de Córdoba's ch,ronicle shows the validity of many fiscal assumptions of last reign. Moreover, Cabrera de Córdoba's works drive us to a better comprehension of the relationship between the Hapsburg Monarchy and the Aragonese Crown, the financia1 system in the Iberian Peninsula and the increasing problems derived from the global imperial econorny