Simulación de la circulación baroclínica del mar Mediterráneo y evaluación e impacto de la interacción océano-atmósfera

Tesis inédita de la Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Físicas, Departamento de Física de la Tierra, Astronomía y Astrofísica II (Astrofísica y Ciencias de la Atmósfera), leída el 30-05-2014Depto. de Física de la Tierra y AstrofísicaFac. de Ciencias FísicasTRUEunpu

Análisis de extremos de viento en el mar Mediterráneo a partir de la base de datos HIPOCAS (1958-2001)

Ponencia presentada en: XXIX Jornadas Científicas de la AME y el VII Encuentro Hispano Luso de Meteorología celebrado en Pamplona, del 24 al 26 de abril de 2006.La presente contribución presenta resultados de un análisis estadístico de extremos de viento en la cuenca mediterránea. Mediante el análisis de los máximos anuales de viento a 10-metros se obtienen estimaciones de niveles y periodos de retorno de dicha variable. Asimismo, se propone un método estadístico alternativo, basado en la técnica de los L-momentos regionales. Esta técnica regional permite incrementar el tamaño de la muestra, utilizando los datos de una región homogénea en lugar de los de una única localización, reduciéndose de este modo la incertidumbre. Los análisis estadísticos de vientos extremos realizados por medio de los vientos HIPOCAS proporcionan una detallada valoración de las áreas de fuertes vientos en aguas del Mediterráneo

Proyecciones de clima regional marino sobre España

Este trabajo es una contribución al proyecto CLIFISH (CTM2015-66400-C3-2-R) financiado por el Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (MINECO)

HOSPITAL PSIQUIÁTRICO. PLANEAMIENTO AÉREO [Material gráfico]

Copia digital. Madrid : Ministerio de Educación, Cultura y Deporte, 201

Evaluation of the operational CMEMS and coastal downstream ocean forecasting services during the storm Gloria (January 2020)

Storm Gloria was the 10th named storm in Europe for the 2019–2020 winter season, and it severely affected Spain and France. This powerful storm represents an excellent study case to analyze the capabilities of the different ocean model systems available in the Spanish Mediterranean coasts to simulate extreme events, as well as to assess their suitability to enhance preparedness in maritime disasters with high impacts on coastal areas. Five different operational ocean forecasting services able to predict the storm-induced ocean circulation are evaluated. Three of the systems are delivered by the Copernicus Marine Service (hereafter CMEMS): the CMEMS global scale solution (GLO-1/12°), the specific Mediterranean basin scale one (MED-1/24°), and the regional solution for the Atlantic façade (IBI-1/36°), which includes also part of the western Mediterranean. These CMEMS core products are complemented with two higher resolution models focused on more limited areas, which provide operational forecasts for coastal applications: the WMOP system developed at the Balearic Islands Coastal Observing and Forecasting System (SOCIB) with a horizontal resolution of roughly 2 km and the Puertos del Estado (PdE) SAMOA systems with a 350-m resolution that cover the coastal domains of the Spanish Port Authorities of Barcelona, Tarragona, Castellón and Almeria. Both the WMOP and SAMOA models are nested in CMEMS regional systems (MED and IBI, respectively) and constitute good examples of coastal-scale-oriented CMEMS downstream services. The skill of these five ocean models in reproducing the surface dynamics in the area during Gloria is evaluated using met-ocean in situ measurements from numerous buoys (moored in coastal and open waters) and coastal meteorological stations as a reference to track the effects of the storm in essential ocean variables such as surface current, water temperature, and salinity throughout January 2020. Furthermore, modeled surface dynamics are validated against hourly surface current fields from the two high-frequency radar systems available in the zone (the SOCIB HF-Radar system covering the eastern part of the Ibiza Channel and the PdE one at Tarragona, which covers the Ebro Delta, one of the coastal areas most impacted by Gloria). The results assess the performance of the dynamical downscaling at two different levels: first, within the own CMEMS service (with their regional products, as enhanced solutions with respect to the global one) and second in the coastal down-streaming service side (with very high-resolution models reaching coastal scales). This multi-model study case focused on Storm Gloria has allowed to identify some strengths and limitations of the systems currently in operations, and it can help outlining future model service upgrades aimed at better forecasting extreme coastal events.This study has been conducted using E.U. Copernicus Marine Service Information. Specifically, from its NRT forecast products for the global, Mediterranean basin and the IBI area. Likewise, HF radar and ocean in situ observations from the Puertos del Estado and the SOCIB observing networks and systems have been used. The authors acknowledge the MEDCLIC project (LCF/PR/PR14/11090002), funded by “La Caixa” Foundation, contributing to the development of the WMOP hydrodynamic model.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Regional marine climate scenarios in the NE Atlantic sector close to the Spanish shores

[EN] We present an overview of the changes expected during the 21st century in key marine parameters (sea surface temperature, sea surface salinity, sea level and waves) in the sector of the NE Atlantic Ocean close to the Spanish shores. Under the A1B scenario, open-sea surface temperatures would increase by 1°C to 1.5°C by 2050 as a consequence of global ocean warming. Near the continental margin, however, the global temperature rise would be counteracted by an enhancement of the seasonal upwelling. Sea surface salinity is likely to decrease in the future, mainly due to the advection of high-latitude fresher waters from ice melting. Mean sea level rise has been quantified as 15-20 cm by 2050, but two contributions not accounted for by our models must be added: the mass redistribution derived from changes in the large-scale circulation (which in the NE Atlantic may be as large as 15 cm in 2050 or 35 cm by 2100) and the increase in the ocean mass content due to the melting of continental ice (for which estimates are still uncertain). The meteorological tide shows very small changes, and therefore extreme sea levels would be higher in the 21st century, but mostly due to the increase in mean sea level, not to an increase in the storminess. The wave projections point towards slightly smaller significant wave heights, but the changes projected are of the same order as the natural variability.[ES]En este trabajo se presenta una visión de conjunto de los cambios esperados en el siglo XXI en los principales parámetros marinos (temperatura y salinidad superficiales, nivel del mar y oleaje) en el sector NE del Océano Atlántico más cercano a las costas españolas. Bajo el escenario A1B, se prevé que la temperatura superficial en mar abierto suba del orden de 1-1.5°C para el año 2050, como consecuencia del calentamiento global del océano. Cerca del margen continental, sin embargo, el aumento de la temperatura superficial podría ser contrarrestado por un aumento del afloramiento estacional. La salinidad superficial es probable que disminuya en el futuro, debido principalmente a la advección desde latitudes más altas de aguas provenientes de la fusión de hielos polares. El aumento del nivel del mar obtenido de los modelos se ha cuantificado en 15 a 20 cm para el año 2050, pero esa estima no incluye dos contribuciones adicionales que deben ser añadidas: la redistribución de masa derivada de los cambios en la circulación a gran escala (que en el Atlántico NE se ha estimado en unos 15 cm para 2050 i en 35 cm para 2100) y el aumento de masa debido a la fusión de hielos continentales (para el cual las estimas son todavía inciertas). La marea meteorológica muestra cambios muy pequeños, y por tanto el aumento de los niveles extremos del mar en el siglo XXI serán debidos principalmente al aumento del nivel medio, no a un aumento en la intensidad de las tormentas. Las proyecciones de oleaje apuntan a olas de altura significante ligeramente más pequeñas; de todos modos, los cambios proyectados son del mismo orden que la variabilidad natural.The computational work of this paper was carried out in the framework of two projects: VANIMEDAT-2 (CTM2009-10163-C02-01), funded by the Spanish Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (MINECO) and the E-Plan of the Spanish Government; and ESCENARIOS, funded by the Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET). Some of the analysis and summary efforts were carried out in the framework of the subsequent project CLIMPACT (CGL2014-54246-C2-1-R), also funded by MINECO

Progress in detection and projection of climate change in Spain since the 2010 CLIVAR-Spain regional climate change assessment report

Special Issue on climate over the Iberian Peninsula: an overview of CLIVAR-Spain coordinated science

Evaluación de los campos de precipitación generados por el modelo atmosférico regional de clima RCA3.5 sobre un dominio mediterráneo

Ponencia presentada en: VIII Congreso de la Asociación Española de Climatología celebrado en Salamanca entre el 25 y el 28 de septiembre de 2012.[ES]En el contexto del proyecto de escenarios de clima oceánico desarrollado por AEMET-EPPEIMEDEA- MeteoFrance se ha utilizado el modelo atmosférico regional de clima RCA3.5 para forzar diferentes modelos oceánicos de circulación, residuos de nivel del mar y oleaje. Como paso previo a la generación de proyecciones regionalizadas atmosféricas y oceánicas se ha evaluado el modelo. Este trabajo analiza los campos de precipitación generados por RCA forzado por el reanálisis de ERA-interim. Para la comparación se ha utilizado como referencia observacional la base de datos en rejilla de Spain02. Se ha realizado un análisis de significación estadística de los resultados. RCA3.5 muestra una variabilidad temporal y sobre todo espacial más próxima a Spain02 que el resto de datasets, incluyendo el reanálisis de ERA-interim con el que fue forzado. También es el que mejor reproduce las estructuras locales de precipitación observadas. Sin embargo, sobreestima la precipitación sobre todo en las montañas.[EN]In the framework of the generation of ocean climate scenarios developed by AEMET-EPPEIMEDEA- MeteoFrance, a regional climate model, RCA 3.5, has been used to force models which simulate the oceanic circulation, sea level and waves. As a previous step RCA fields have been evaluated. This work analizes the precipitation simulated by RCA forced with ERA-interim reanalysis. As observational reference for the comparisons a new gridded precipitation database (Spain02) was used. A complete statistical analysis of significance was conducted for the results. RCA3.5 compares better than any other dataset to Spain02 observations in temporal and, mainly, spatial variability; beating even the reanalysis of ERA-interim used to force the model. Besides, it is the one who better represents the local precipitation structures observed. However, RCA3.5 overestimates the precipitation amounts, mainly in the mountains

Mediterranean Sea response to climate change in an ensemble of twenty first century scenarios

The Mediterranean climate is expected to become warmer and drier during the twenty-first century. Mediterranean Sea response to climate change could be modulated by the choice of the socio-economic scenario as well as the choice of the boundary conditions mainly the Atlantic hydrography, the river runoff and the atmospheric fluxes. To assess and quantify the sensitivity of the Mediterranean Sea to the twenty-first century climate change, a set of numerical experiments was carried out with the regional ocean model NEMOMED8 set up for the Mediterranean Sea. The model is forced by air–sea fluxes derived from the regional climate model ARPEGE-Climate at a 50-km horizontal resolution. Historical simulations representing the climate of the period 1961–2000 were run to obtain a reference state. From this baseline, various sensitivity experiments were performed for the period 2001–2099, following different socio-economic scenarios based on the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. For the A2 scenario, the main three boundary forcings (river runoff, near-Atlantic water hydrography and air–sea fluxes) were changed one by one to better identify the role of each forcing in the way the ocean responds to climate change. In two additional simulations (A1B, B1), the scenario is changed, allowing to quantify the socio-economic uncertainty. Our 6-member scenario simulations display a warming and saltening of the Mediterranean. For the 2070–2099 period compared to 1961–1990, the sea surface temperature anomalies range from +1.73 to +2.97 °C and the SSS anomalies spread from +0.48 to +0.89. In most of the cases, we found that the future Mediterranean thermohaline circulation (MTHC) tends to reach a situation similar to the eastern Mediterranean Transient. However, this response is varying depending on the chosen boundary conditions and socio-economic scenarios. Our numerical experiments suggest that the choice of the near-Atlantic surface water evolution, which is very uncertain in General Circulation Models, has the largest impact on the evolution of the Mediterranean water masses, followed by the choice of the socio-economic scenario. The choice of river runoff and atmospheric forcing both have a smaller impact. The state of the MTHC during the historical period is found to have a large influence on the transfer of surface anomalies toward depth. Besides, subsurface currents are substantially modified in the Ionian Sea and the Balearic region. Finally, the response of thermosteric sea level ranges from +34 to +49 cm (2070–2099 vs. 1961–1990), mainly depending on the Atlantic forcing

Caracterización del clima presente y futuro de las aguas de la Península Ibérica y el mar Mediterráneo

Ponencia presentada en: VIII Congreso de la Asociación Española de Climatología celebrado en Salamanca entre el 25 y el 28 de septiembre de 2012.[ES]La colaboración establecida entre AEMET, Puertos del Estado, IMEDEA y Météo-France tiene como objetivo realizar simulaciones de océano para obtener escenarios de cambio climático marino (oleaje, residuos del nivel del mar y circulación oceánica), que cubran las zonas marítimas que circundan la Península Ibérica y el mar Mediterráneo.[EN]The aim of the collaboration established between the Spanish Metoffice (AEMET), Puertos del Estado, IMEDEA and Météo-France is to perform ocean simulations to obtain marine climate change scenarios (waves, sea level and ocean circulation) which covers the sea areas surrounding the Iberian Peninsula and the Mediterranean Sea