Forecasting Australian Macroeconomic variables, evaluating innovations state space approaches

Innovations state space time series models that encapsulate the exponential smoothing methodology have been shown to be an accurate forecasting tool. These models for the first time are applied to Australian macroeconomic data. In addition new multivariate specifications are outlined and demonstrated to be accurate.exponential smoothing, state space models, multivariate time series, macroeconomic variables

Performance of a local electron density trigger to select extensive air showers at sea level

Time coincident voltage pulses in the two closely space (1.6m) plastic scintillators were recorded. Most of the recorded events are expeted to be due to electrons in cosmic ray showers whose core fall at some distance from the detectors. This result is confirmed from a measurement of the frequency distribution of the recorded density ratios of the two scintillators

A study into situated learning through community legal companionship

Against the background of the current graduate skills agenda and its considered importance in relation to a UK law degree, this article considers the value of the CLOCK Community Legal Companion scheme, a collaborative social justice project involving law students, legal services providers, third sector advice agencies and law courts based in two areas of the country namely; Canterbury and Brighton. In recent years, the UK Government has significantly cut civil legal aid in areas such as housing, family and welfare benefits, with a view to easing the strain on the deficit. These cuts have been opposed by many, including lawyers, who have raised concerns that the most vulnerable within our communities could be left unrepresented in court and as a consequence an undue burden placed on our civil justice system. CLOCK therefore provides an opportunity for those within our communities who are caught in the so-called ‘justice gap’, to gain support and guidance from law students when they attend court unrepresented. The findings of a small-scale research project into the perceived benefits of Community Legal Companionship, conducted at two UK law schools; Canterbury Christ Church University and the University of Brighton, indicate that the socio-legal experiential learning opportunities for undergraduate law students presented by such initiatives, are also valuable in terms of legal skills acquisition. The research shows that the scheme not only enables law students to use their legal knowledge for the benefit of their local community, but also through analysis of their own perceptions, demonstrates how such a community-based project can provide undergraduate law students with valuable employability skills. Experiences of setting up a Community Legal Companion scheme, together with an overview of how the scheme operates in the Canterbury and Brighton County Courts, as well as students’ reflections of participating as Community Legal Companions drawn from the empirical qualitative research, are evaluated in this article

Situated learning through the CLOCK legal companion scheme

This paper introduces the CLOCK Community Legal Companion scheme, a collaborative social justice project involving law students, law firms, third sector advice agencies and law courts. Initiated by Keele University’s law school due to concerns over the rise in the number of self-represented litigants, following implementation of the Legal Aid Sentencing & Punishment of Offenders Act 2012 (LASPO Act) and the associated reduction in legal aid, the scheme is designed to assist self-represented litigants at courts local to the participating laws schools in the post-LASPO era. Law students acting as Community Legal Companions assist self-represented litigants with legal form-filling; bundle preparation; signposting to appropriate legal and third sector services and accompany litigants in person to hearings along McKenzie Friend principles by taking notes for them. Drawing on the experiences of the scheme at two of the participating universities: Canterbury Christ Church University and the University of Brighton, Ben Waters and Jeanette Ashton outline the role of the Community Legal Companion and how the scheme operates in their respective court centres. They share their experiences of setting up the scheme and of their students’ reflections on volunteering as Community Legal Companions. Situated within a pedagogical context of experiential learning and clinical legal education, the paper also reflects upon the project based research undertaken at both institutions. This includes the responses provided by the students to an initial questionnaire about their experiences as they embarked upon their Companionship role, and the responses received to a follow-up questionnaire after students had undertaken the role for the three-month period. When presenting the research findings, consideration is given to students’ perceptions of the Community Legal Companion role; their motivations for volunteering for the scheme; the preparation and training they received from academic leads, legal partners, third sector partners and the courts; the challenges presented by the role; the supportive link made to their academic studies and the opportunities for key skills acquisition. Perceptions of employability enhancement and the likely impact of the role in supporting students’ future careers are also considered. Whilst there is a considerable body of literature on the well-known and perhaps more established clinical legal education model i.e. that of the university-based law clinic, this paper contributes to the research from the perspective of experiential learning in the context of the court environment through situated learning opportunities. It is argued that such socio-legal active learning initiatives enable law students to learn about law in context, in this case by assisting self-represented litigants who are often at their most vulnerable, with some having poor levels of literacy and many being thoroughly bewildered by the court process. The findings of the study reveal that the CLOCK Community Legal Companion scheme, as well as bringing benefits to the wider community, enables law student volunteers to develop key skills, build links with legal and third sector partners and to feel part of a community of practice

XMM-Newton observations of the Seyfert 1 AGN H0557-385

We present XMM-Newton observations of the Seyfert 1 AGN H0557-385. We have conducted a study into the warm absorber present in this source, and using high-resolution RGS data we find that the absorption can be characterised by two phases: a phase with log ionisation parameter xi of 0.50 (where xi is in units of ergs cm/s) and a column of 0.2e21 cm^-2, and a phase with log xi of 1.62 and a column of 1.3e22 cm^-2. An iron K alpha line is detected. Neutral absorption is also present in the source, and we discuss possible origins for this. On the assumption that the ionised absorbers originate as an outflow from the inner edge of the torus, we use a new method for finding the volume filling factor. Both phases of H0557-385 have small volume filling factors (< 1%). We also derive the volume filling factors for a sample of 23 AGN using this assumption and for the absorbers with log xi > 0.7 we find reasonable agreement with the filling factors obtained through the alternative method of equating the momentum flow of the absorbers to the momentum loss of the radiation field. By comparing the filling factors obtained by the two methods, we infer that some absorbers with log xi < 0.7 occur at significantly larger distances from the nucleus than the inner edge of the torus.Comment: Accepted for publication in MNRA

Searching for a just and lasting peace? Anglo-American relations and the road to United Nations Security Council Resolution 242

United Nations Security Council Resolution 242 of 22 November 1967 continues to rank as a key point of reference for the Arab-Israeli peace process. The resolution laid down a 'land for peace' formula for the resolution of the Arab-Israeli conflict, under which Israel would withdraw from territories occupied during the June 1967 Arab-Israeli War in exchange for full peace agreements with her Arab neighbours. This article analyses the Anglo-American diplomacy at the United Nations which led to the passing of the resolution. It argues that the policy-making of the Johnson Administration was rendered incoherent by internal rivalries and disorganisation. US Ambassador to the UN, Arthur Goldberg, was perceived as excessively sympathetic to Israel by the Arab delegations. The British approach, by contrast, was perceived by all parties as more even-handed. The clear position adopted by Foreign Secretary George Brown on Israeli withdrawal from the occupied territories, together with the skilful diplomacy of the Ambassador to the UN, Lord Caradon, explains the British success in sponsoring resolution 242. The episode holds broader lessons for the conduct of Anglo-American relations showing that Britain was better placed to achieve diplomatic success when it retained its freedom of manoeuvre in relations with the US

Jordan’s frustration with the Middle East peace process

In a widely quoted interview with The Times last May King Abdullah of Jordan warned that ‘if we delay our peace negotiations then there is going to be another conflict between Arabs or Muslims and Israel in the next 12-18 months’. 12 of the 18 months are now up and Israeli-Palestinian negotiations seem further away than ever from even beginning, never mind reaching, fruition. If King Abdullah’s frustrations were great a year ago, they have only increased in the course of the past month. The recent collapse of Palestinian-Israeli proximity talks before they had even begun, coupled with the intransigence of the Netanyahu government on the issue of settlement-building, give little reason to believe that the next six months will bring significant progress