Monetary policy and its perspectives in advanced economies

Evento: XI Central Bank Operations Meeting. Organizado por: CEMLA y Banco de Méxic

Price determinacy under non-Ricardian fiscal strategies

This paper shows that there exist fiscal strategies that deliver equilibrium uniqueness in a monetary economy in which the central bank follows an interest rate peg. In contrast to the fiscal theory of the price level (FTPL), such strategies always satisfy a government intertemporal budget constraint. The government is able to rule out most prices using strategically its fiscal instruments, undercutting the private-market price whenever it is inconsistent with the fiscal targets. In the spirit of the FTPL, along the fiscal strategies of this paper the government does not follow a rule that mechanically links the fiscal surplus to the real value of its outstanding nominal debt. Like in the monetarist paradigm, the fiscal authority is forced to blink in face of an independent monetary policy, although in equilibrium the former achieves its own target

Spanish COVID-19 recovery, policy response and wider European reforms

Organizado por: Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF

The Euro Area: economic situation, prospects and challenges

Evento: Global Independence Center - Central Banking Serie

Speculative hyperinflations : when can we rule them out?

Motivated by a strong degree of hysteresis in the stock of monetization observed after the end of hyperinflations, I provide a cash-and-credit model in which the use of money exhibits some persistence because individuals can establish long-lasting credit relationships. This feature helps to account for the main stylized facts of extreme hyperinflations and reconcile some conflicting views on their causes, development and end without departing from rational expectations. Unlike the existing literature, I show that when hysteresis is possible, an orthodox fiscal-monetary reform that successfully stops a speculative hyperinflation may not be sufficient to prevent it. [resumen de autor

The fiscal theory of the price level : a narrow theory for non-fiat money

I examine the postulates of the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level (FTPL) under a nominal interest rate peg. First, I show that the usual definition of a non-Ricardian plan involves a number of government¿s non-credible policy commitments, thus confuting the interpretation of the FTPL as a policy-based equilibrium selection device. The main novelty of this criticism is that it is based on the same core assumptions maintained by this theory: there is a positive stock of governmentissued assets at the beginning of the history owned by the households, flow of funds constraints must be respected in every contingency, although transversality conditions may be violated at off-equilibrium prices. Then I investigate some additional necessary conditions that allow the government to implement non-Ricardian fiscal plans that result in a unique equilibrium under an interest rate peg. A critical necessary condition for the credibility of such a fiscalist plan is that the equilibrium level of seigniorage must be non-positive. I argue that the fiscalist stock-analogy, under this monetary rule, is only meaningful, precisely, when money enters into the government constraint as a destination of funds, rather than as a source

Macroeconomic projections for the Spanish economy 2019-2021

Presentació

Perspectives of the Spanish Economy within the European context: challenges and role of the NGEU

Evento: Bank of America Virtual Iberian Macro Tou

ECB Monetary policy. Past, present and future

Evento: XV Meeting of Monetary Policy Managers. Organizado por:CEMLA-BCRD (Banco Central de la República Dominicana

Structural changes in the global financial system and new challenges for central banks

Evento: 10th Istanbul Finance Summi