Shifting Global Invasive Potential of European Plants with Climate Change

Global climate change and invasions by nonnative species rank among the top concerns for agents of biological loss in coming decades. Although each of these themes has seen considerable attention in the modeling and forecasting communities, their joint effects remain little explored and poorly understood. We developed ecological niche models for 1804 species from the European flora, which we projected globally to identify areas of potential distribution, both at present and across 4 scenarios of future (2055) climates. As expected from previous studies, projections based on the CGCM1 climate model were more extreme than those based on the HadCM3 model, and projections based on the a2 emissions scenario were more extreme than those based on the b2 emissions scenario. However, less expected were the highly nonlinear and contrasting projected changes in distributional areas among continents: increases in distributional potential in Europe often corresponded with decreases on other continents, and species seeing expanding potential on one continent often saw contracting potential on others. In conclusion, global climate change will have complex effects on invasive potential of plant species. The shifts and changes identified in this study suggest strongly that biological communities will see dramatic reorganizations in coming decades owing to shifting invasive potential by nonnative species

Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on Threatened Species in UK Waters

Global climate change is affecting the distribution of marine species and is thought to represent a threat to biodiversity. Previous studies project expansion of species range for some species and local extinction elsewhere under climate change. Such range shifts raise concern for species whose long-term persistence is already threatened by other human disturbances such as fishing. However, few studies have attempted to assess the effects of future climate change on threatened vertebrate marine species using a multi-model approach. There has also been a recent surge of interest in climate change impacts on protected areas. This study applies three species distribution models and two sets of climate model projections to explore the potential impacts of climate change on marine species by 2050. A set of species in the North Sea, including seven threatened and ten major commercial species were used as a case study. Changes in habitat suitability in selected candidate protected areas around the UK under future climatic scenarios were assessed for these species. Moreover, change in the degree of overlap between commercial and threatened species ranges was calculated as a proxy of the potential threat posed by overfishing through bycatch. The ensemble projections suggest northward shifts in species at an average rate of 27 km per decade, resulting in small average changes in range overlap between threatened and commercially exploited species. Furthermore, the adverse consequences of climate change on the habitat suitability of protected areas were projected to be small. Although the models show large variation in the predicted consequences of climate change, the multi-model approach helps identify the potential risk of increased exposure to human stressors of critically endangered species such as common skate (Dipturus batis) and angelshark (Squatina squatina)

Climate Change Hastens the Conservation Urgency of an Endangered Ungulate

Global climate change appears to be one of the main threats to biodiversity in the near future and is already affecting the distribution of many species. Currently threatened species are a special concern while the extent to which they are sensitive to climate change remains uncertain. Przewalski's gazelle (Procapra przewalskii) is classified as endangered and a conservation focus on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Using measures of species range shift, we explored how the distribution of Przewalski's gazelle may be impacted by projected climate change based on a maximum entropy approach. We also evaluated the uncertainty in the projections of the risks arising from climate change. Modeling predicted the Przewalski's gazelle would be sensitive to future climate change. As the time horizon increased, the strength of effects from climate change increased. Even assuming unlimited dispersal capacity of gazelles, a moderate decrease to complete loss of range was projected by 2080 under different thresholds for transforming the probability prediction to presence/absence data. Current localities of gazelles will undergo a decrease in their occurrence probability. Projections of the impacts of climate change were significantly affected by thresholds and general circulation models. This study suggests climate change clearly poses a severe threat and increases the extinction risk to Przewalski's gazelle. Our findings 1) confirm that endangered endemic species is highly vulnerable to climate change and 2) highlight the fact that forecasting impacts of climate change needs an assessment of the uncertainty. It is extremely important that conservation strategies consider the predicted geographical shifts and be planned with full knowledge of the reliability of projected impacts of climate change

Outbreak of acute gastroenteritis in an air force base in Western Greece

BACKGROUND: On the 20(th )September 2005, soldiers and staff at the Air Force base in Western Greece experienced an outbreak of acute gastroenteritis. The purpose of this study was to identify the agent and the source of the outbreak in order to develop control measures and to avoid similar outbreaks in the future. METHODS: A case-control analytical approach was employed with 100 randomly selected cases and 66 controls. Patients completed standardized questionnaires, odds ratios were calculated and statistical significance was determined using χ(2 )test. In addition, to identify the source of the infection, we performed bacteriological examination of food samples (included raw beef, cooked minced meat, grated cheese and grated cheese in sealed package) collected from the cuisine of the military unit. RESULTS: More than 600 out of the 1,050 individuals who ate lunch that day, became ill. The overall attack rate, as the military doctor of the unit estimated it, was at least 60%. The overall odds ratio of gastroenteritis among those who had lunch was 370 (95% CI: 48–7700) as compared to those who didn't eat lunch. Among the symptoms the most prominent were watery diarrhoea (96%) and abdominal pain (73%). The mean incubation period was 9 h and the median duration of the symptoms was 21 h. In the bacteriological examination, Staphylococcus aureus was detected in a sample of raw beef (2,000 cfu per g) and in two samples of grated cheese; leftover cheese from lunch (7,800 cfu per g) and an unopened package purchased from the market (3,000 cfu per g). CONCLUSION: The findings of this study suggest that the aetiological agent of this outbreak was S. aureus. The food vehicle was the grated cheese, which was mixed with the beef and served for lunch in the military unit. This outbreak highlights the capacity of enterotoxin-producing bacteria to cause short term, moderately-severe illness in a young and healthy population. It underscores the need for proper food handling practices and reinforces the public health importance of timely notification of such outbreaks