Determinants of trip duration for international tourists in Norway; a parametric survival analysis

Source at https://doi.org/10.1515/ejthr-2017-0008 .How long a tourist stays in a host country acts as an indicator of tourism industry’s contribution towards the national economy. The purpose of this study is to examine how socio-demographic characteristics of international tourists, their travelling purpose, tourism products and characteristics of the destination influence the length of stay in Norway, by estimating a parametric survival model. Total cost of trip, purpose of travel, type of accommodation and transportation, age of tourist and geographical area are key elements that explain the variation in the length of tourist stay in Norway. The Cox proportional hazard model with time-independent covariates indicates the survival probability of tourists with less budget constraints and younger ages is higher than that of low-spending tourists and elderly travelers. Moreover, tourists with the purpose of friend and family visitation are at lower risk of leaving Norway than are tourists with other purposes. In terms of tourism products, choosing camping sites as the type of accommodation and road transport as the mode of transportation are associated with the highest survival probability. Another key finding is that tourists stay longer in northern Norway than in southern Norway; hence, on average, tourists’ overall expenditures are higher in northern Norway

The effect of quota portfolio composition on optimal harvest strategy and profitability in a multi-species fishery

The benefits of individual vessel quota (IVQ) management in terms of improved harvest strategy and profitability are well recognized, but there is less focus on how different components of a quota portfolio can influence decisions underlying the effort allocation and profit-maximizing behaviour of fishers. Variations in the components of the quota portfolio may create economic incentives that alter the optimal harvest strategy and profitability. Thus, we study the potential impact of different components of quota portfolio on the intra-annual harvest strategy and profitability in two segments of the Norwegian bottom trawl fleet. By developing a vessel-based spatio-temporal bioeconomic framework, we demonstrate and compare adopted harvest strategies and accrued profits for small and large trawl vessels under three scenarios regarding restrictive quotas in codfish fishery. Our analysis confirms that alternations in the components of the quota portfolio influence the spatio-temporal dynamics of the fishing effort for small and large trawl vessels in different ways, probably due to the differences in vessel-specific characteristics. We also demonstrate that the differences in profit between small and large vessels in part depend on the overall size of the quota portfolio. The economies of scale in the trawl industry are being eroded as the shares of higher-priced species in the quota portfolio decreases. The benefits of economies of scale cannot be reaped as trawlers respond to the reduction in profit by redirecting effort from offshore areas of the Arctic to nearshore waters or staying ashore. Likewise, having small quotas of high-priced species reduces the effectiveness of the IVQ system in meeting management objectives, and could in some cases undermine sustainability outcomes. Our results also demonstrate that both the intensity with which fishers react to the fluctuations in market price levels and fishers’ perceptions of location attractiveness are influenced by the components of the quota portfolio.publishedVersio

Fisher's effort allocation behavior and decision-making process in the Norwegian trawl fishery

The empirical investigation of fishers’ harvest behavior is an important but neglected strand of fishery science. In this thesis, we fill some of this gap by developing empirical models to investigate trawlers’ harvest behavior over time and space in codfish fisheries, managed using individual vessel quotas (IVQs). Fishers’ harvest behavior is reflected in the decision-making processes underlying effort allocation: when and where to fish, what species to target, and how much to fish in each haul to avoid over- and underutilization of quotas. Effort allocation is a challenging task, especially in multi-species fisheries as the fish stocks in the fishing portfolio may differ in feeding, breeding, and migration patterns. This biological heterogeneity together with constant movement of different fish stocks across various locations influences economic conditions such as market prices and operation costs. What adds more complication to optimal allocation of fishing effort is the constantly changing environmental conditions such as food availability and sea temperature, which influence fish behavior. Another complication arises from the inherent uncertainties and external disturbances such as abrupt oceanographic changes, which affect the catch size and profitability. On top of what has been mentioned, institutional regulations such as quota restrictions further complicate the decisions underlying effort allocation. Understanding how trawlers behave and why they behave the way they do reveals valuable information about marine resource status, as well as evaluating fisheries management options to anticipate the possible responses of fishers to changing regulatory schemes. Moreover, recognition of the fishing effort allocation of the trawl fleet enables fisheries managers to evaluate the status of the benthos and seafloor as dragging heavy nets across the ocean can be environmentally destructive. This thesis focuses on codfish; that is, cod, saithe, and haddock fisheries as this portfolio includes economically important species in terms of volume and total revenue. These fish species are seasonally migratory and constantly swim over a vast geographical area to spawn and/or feed. The thesis aims to empirically investigate the fishing behavior of Norwegian trawlers in response to the economic changes stemming from the migratory behavior of these fish stocks, and to show how this could affect harvest attributes such as location choice, timing of production, preference in target species, and quota utilization. This study employs and combines multiple data sources for the empirical analysis of spatiotemporal allocation of fishing effort in trawl fishery. Our comprehensive data set covers the relevant information of trawl fishery during 2011–2016 to conduct empirical investigations of trawlers’ adopted harvest strategy and explain the drivers behind the chosen harvest strategy. The outcomes of this thesis are believed to be useful to fisheries managers in the policy-making process as well as for fishers’ communities to enhance the efficiency of their fishing activities

Tourism Demand in Northern and Southern Norway: A Survival Analysis Approach

The twentieth century is a golden era for technology and transportation boost, which facilitates taking journey all over the world. Traveling for any purpose such as leisure, meetings, conferences, conventions, business, educational and medical trips is considered to be one the most profitable industries in the world and the cornerstone of many economies. Norway has a great reputation among overseas visitors for being safe and having an abundance of diverse touristic sites. However, like any other country, Norway needs to make appropriate policies to increase its income in the tourism sector. In this regard, research is required to estimate the tourism demand in order to provide the policy makers with solid foundations for their decision-making processes. The aim of this research is to identify the factors, including economic and demographic, which can affect the international tourism demand in Norway. To achieve this aim, the present study uses a probabilistic approach in order to estimate the length of stay of tourists in Northern and Southern Norway. As tourist-attraction differs from North to South, investigating the tourism demand and analyzing how different covariates affect the demand provides a basis for recognizing the area that has a higher investment turnover. The findings of this study show that the tourism demand differs in Southern and Northern Norway and tourists in general have the tendency to stay longer in Northern Norway. The extent of such difference is modeled as a function of time and a set of explanatory variables, for instance tourist gender, age, purpose of trip, total cost, geographical area, preference of accommodation and transportation type. This means that the effects of the covariates on the probabilistic representation (using survival analysis) of tourism demand vary from one region to other. Such findings can be used to make appropriate regional and national policies to have a well-organized plan to promote tourist flow to Norway. Keywords: Tourism industry, Northern and Southern Norway, Survival analysis, Probabilistic approach, Policy-making

Spatial and temporal distributions in the Norwegian cod fishery

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A multi-region and multi-period harvest schedule of the trawl fleet

Under the individual vessel quota regulations, the expected economic return of a multi species fishery is influenced by an array of a multi-component choice such as targeted species, landings per haul, harvesting time and its location. The components of effort allocation decisions are further complicated by changes in the market conditions and the constant movements of fish between spawning and feeding habitats. Migratory behavior influences the dispersal of species, relative availability of fish and its composition, and the bycatch likelihood across different locations over the course of a fishing year. The objective of this article is to investigate the optimal allocation of fishing effort in the Norwegian bottom-trawl fleet within economically important species; cod, saithe, and haddock across three heavily trawled areas—including southern and northern parts of the west coast of Norway, and the high sea areas of the Arctic—to achieve maximum expected economic return, with respect to the individual vessel quota constraints and bycatch considerations. The results from a mixed integer non-linear optimization problem evidence that the spawning migration of Northeast Arctic cod along the northwest coast, effort allocation behavior of coastal fleet, together with institutional regulations necessitate the substitution of fishing effort across different fishing locations within the fishing season to maximize expected return. The results of our study further reveal that the Arctic region to target cod is the biggest contributor to annual fishing revenue. By contrast, conducting saithe fishery in the southwest of the Norwegian coast has the lowest economic contribution. The results from Monte Carlo simulation demonstrate that the proposed model is effective and applicable for effort allocation decision analysis