Lithuania: Fertility decline and its determinants

Since the beginning of the 1990s, Lithuania has been undergoing significant transformations in family life and has experienced a precipitous decline in fertility. The determinants of the changes are diverse in character and are associated with socioeconomic transformations, economic difficulties faced by the post-Soviet society, inadequate social and family policies and changing value orientations and life styles. This article traces the fertility trends in Lithuania from the period and cohort perspective, providing adjusted TFR estimates that reveal the significance of the tempo effect on the recent decline in fertility. Furthermore, the main factors leading to the recently observed changes in family and fertility are identified and analysed. Finally, the characteristic features and necessary improvements of current Lithuanian family policy and its possible effects on individual behaviour and fertility trends are discussed.childbearing, Europe, fertility, fertility decline, Lithuania

Union formation and fertility in Bulgaria and Russia: A life table description of recent trends

The paper provides an extensive descriptive analysis and comparison of recent trends in union formation and fertility in Bulgaria and Russia. The analysis is based on data from the Generation and Gender Surveys (GGS) carried out in 2004. We generate a large number of single- and multi-decrement life tables describing various life course events: leaving home and separation from the parental family, entry into union, first and second childbirth, divorce. Life tables are constructed for real cohorts as well as for synthetic cohorts. We study four real cohorts, born in 1940-44, 1950-54, 1960-64 and 1970-74. Synthetic-cohort life tables are constructed for three periods of time, referring to the pre-transitional demographic situation (1985-1989), the beginning of the transition (1990-1994) and recent demographic developments (1999-2003). We study also Roma and Turkish ethnic groups in Bulgaria. The life tables deliver detailed information that is otherwise unavailable. Our tentative findings indicate that societal transformation had a stronger impact on family-related behavior in the Bulgarian population than in the population of Russia. There is evidence that in some aspects Bulgaria is lagging behind other former socialist and Western European countries where the second demographic transition is more advanced. Evidence also suggests that Russia is lagging behind Bulgaria. However, certain specific features distinctive to Russia, such as the low level of childlessness, a drastic drop in second and subsequent births, and very high divorce rates even compared to Western European countries (it is a long-standing, not just recent trend), lead us to think that Russia may have a model of change particular to the country.Bulgaria, fertility, life tables, Russia, union formation

The end of 'lowest-low' fertility? (with supplementary materials)

Period fertility rates fell to previously unseen low levels in a large number of countries beginning in the early 1990s. The persistence of Total Fertility Rates under 1.3 raised the possibility of dramatic, rapid population aging as well as population decline. In an analysis of recent trends, we find, however, a widespread turn-around in so-called “lowest-low” fertility countries. The reversal has been particularly vigorous in Europe. The number of countries with period total fertility rates less than 1.3 fell from 21 in 2003 to five in 2008, of which four (Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore and Taiwan) are in East Asia. Moreover, the upturn in the period TFR was not confined to lowest-fertility countries, but affected the whole developed world. We explore the demographic explanations for the recent rise in fertility stemming from fertility timing effects as well as economic, policy, and social factors. Although the current economic crisis may push down fertility in the short-run, we conclude that formerly lowest-low fertility countries should continue to see further increase in fertility as the transitory effects of shifts to later motherhood become less and less important.

The structure of recent first-union formation in Romania

By European standards, consensual first unions have been rare in Romania, and they remain so even though their incidence has increased by a factor of almost five since the early 1960s. Rates of conversion of consensual unions into marriages have been cut in half over the same four decades or so, and marriage rates have declined by a similar factor since the fall of state socialism, which is more dramatic because this period is so much shorter. There have been strong ethnic differentials in union-entry rates in the country.Romania

Census-linked study on ethnic fertility differentials in Lithuania

Fertility transformations observed since the early 1990s and their determinants have been rather thoroughly investigated in Lithuania. There are fairly numerous national and international studies devoted to this topic, mainly based on survey data. However, none of these studies looks into the effect of ethnicity on fertility. It is, to a large extent, caused by limitations of sample survey data. This study demonstrates potentials of census-linked fertility data to estimate robust and nationally representative parity-specific period fertility measures by ethnicity. The findings of this first systematic study of ethnicity-specific fertility differentials in Lithuania indicate that ethnicity does matter for fertility even in such ethnically homogenous country as Lithuania. Fertility among Lithuanians is higher than in the other ethnic groups, especially among Russians. Lower fertility in the Russian ethnic group is mainly explained by differences in the risk of having the second child. Importantly, this disadvantage remains significant even after controlling for selected compositional characteristics including urban-rural place of residence and education. The approach used in this study may be applied for Latvia and Estonia, where national minorities constitute substantial shares of the entire populations and significantly contribute to overall fertility levels

Census-linked study on ethnic fertility differentials in Lithuania

Fertility transformations observed since the early 1990s and their determinants have been rather thoroughly investigated in Lithuania. There are fairly numerous national and international studies devoted to this topic, mainly based on survey data. However, none of these studies looks into the effect of ethnicity on fertility. It is, to a large extent, caused by limitations of sample survey data. This study demonstrates potentials of census-linked fertility data to estimate robust and nationally representative parity-specific period fertility measures by ethnicity. The findings of this first systematic study of ethnicity-specific fertility differentials in Lithuania indicate that ethnicity does matter for fertility even in such ethnically homogenous country as Lithuania. Fertility among Lithuanians is higher than in the other ethnic groups, especially among Russians. Lower fertility in the Russian ethnic group is mainly explained by differences in the risk of having the second child. Importantly, this disadvantage remains significant even after controlling for selected compositional characteristics including urban-rural place of residence and education. The approach used in this study may be applied for Latvia and Estonia, where national minorities constitute substantial shares of the entire populations and significantly contribute to overall fertility levels

Levels of recent union formation

We offer a comparison between the age profiles of risks of formation of marital and non-marital unions in Russia, Romania, Poland, Hungary, Bulgaria, and Italy. We show that there is considerable variability across these populations in the level and age pattern of union-entry risks, ranging (i) from the high and early risks in Russia to the slow and late entries in Italy, and (ii) from an emphasis on marriage in Russia, Poland, Italy, and particularly Romania, to the dominant role of cohabitation reported for Bulgaria. Some of this mostly re-iterates known features (like the patterns for Italy), but they are displayed with unusual clarity in the comparative framework, which also highlights unusual patterns like those for Bulgaria. We cannot see much commonality in union-entry risks among ex-communist countries.Bulgaria, Hungary, Italy, marital status, non-marital, Poland, Russia, union formation

Fertility reactions to the "Great Recession" in Europe : Recent evidence from oder-specific data

Objective: This paper provides recent cross-national evidence of the impact of the great recession on fertility in Europe in the context of the recent decade. Methods: Using data from the Human Fertility Database (HFD), from Eurostat, and from the OECD database, we employ fixed-effects modeling to study how changes in unemployment rates have affected birth rates across Europe. Results: We find that countries that were hit hard by the recession show reduced fertility when compared with a continuation of recent trends, especially at younger ages. Conclusions: Our results indicate a strong relationship between economic conditions and fertility. However, there is variation by region, age, and parity suggesting the importance of life course and institutional factors

The increase in fertility in cohabitation across Europe: examining the intersection between union status and childbearing

-Europe, cohabitation, family formation