Human capital, higher education and graduate migration: an analysis of Scottish and Welsh students

In this paper we model the sequential migration behaviour of some 76,000 Scottish and Welsh students, from their domicile location to the location of their higher education and on to their employment location. We employ a probit model methodology to analyse the choice of the location of the university attended, whether inside or outside of Scotland or Wales. Then, within a GIS framework we estimate migration-on migration correlations and elasticities in order to identify the mobility effects of human-capital acquisition. Our results confirm the DaVanzo hypothesis that subsequent migration is related to previous migration, and also the Sjaastad-Becker hypothesis that higher human capital individuals are more geographically mobile. However, there are institutional differences between the two countries which mean that but the mobility effects of human-capital acquisition have to be interpreted carefully in the light of other economic, geographic and social influences