Documentation of model components EXPAMOD and CAPRI

ISBN no.: 978-90-8585-129-

Documentation of baseline and policy scenarios to be assessed with Prototypes 2 and 3

SEAMLESS integrated project, EU 6th Framework Programme, contract no.010036-2.International audienceThis deliverable describes the construction of baseline and policy scenarios in Test Case 1 and 2 for the second and third prototypes of SEAMLESS-IF. It provides details of the methodology used in SEAMLESS-IP to build scenarios, and the data and parameters needed for the implementation of these scenarios in SEAMLESS-IF. These scenarios will be used to test the second and third prototypes of the integrated framework and its individual tools, especially the two backbone model chains: Data-base-APES-FSSIM-Indicators and Data-bases-APES-FSSIM-EXPAMOD-CAPRI-Indicators. The report is divided in two parts. The first part gives an overview of what we, in the SEAMLESS integrated project, define as a scenario. It also identifies the main elements for defining scenarios in agreement with the literature. After this overview, the steps defining scenarios in SEAMLESS-IF are identified and explained. The last section of the first part applies this approach to four typical user’s problems that SEAMLESS-IF is designed to address: i) Green intensification at regional scale in animal-based farming systems (Auvergne), ii) Nitrate Directive at regional scale in crop based farming systems (Midi-Pyrenees), iii) Trade liberalisation at EU scale and iv) WTO and cotton policies in a LDC country (Sikasso and Koutiala regions of Mali). The second part of the report details the scenarios used in SEAMLESS-IF for Test Case 1 and 2 at EU and regional scales. The scenarios that can be developed depend on the availability of data as well as the model chain used for assessing the impact of the different EU policies and technological innovations. It proposes a template for the baseline and the policy scenarios compatible with the SEAMLESS-IF structure. More details on the parameters (premiums and constraints) of scenarios to be implemented by WP6 with prototype 2 and 3 are given in three sets of annexe

Evaluation conceptuelle et technique du second prototype de SEAMLESS-IF et de ses composants

The second Prototype of SEAMLESS-IF was evaluated for its capability to be used by integrative modellers (represented by members of WP6) to conduct policy impact assessment with the specific example of Test Case 1 and Test case 2. The triple I concept of SEAMLESS-IF defined in PD1.3.8 has been used as the framework of this evaluation : (I) framework for Integrated assessment of policy options; (II) Individual tools with some being already implemented (e.g. models) and others with limited functionalities (e.g. for editing scenarios or calculating indicators); (III) Infrastructure software (SeamFrame) to link these tools in a coherent and functional manner to define, run and visualise a SEAMLESS-IF project for impact assessment. The individual tools and SeamFrame were evaluated from an Integrative modeller's point of view having in mind the functions that each tool has to fulfil when used in the software infrastructure (e.g. spatial scales, level of precision of output variables .). Even if quantitative evaluation were conducted when possible, the incomplete functionalities of the second Prototype, compared to what was initially planned, led to adapt the WP6 plan of evaluation and to perform mostly qualitative evaluation of back bone and non back bone models and procedure for policy impact assessment. A Strength, Weakness, Opportunity and Threat (SWOT) analysis of each tool and of the whole infrastructure and the suggestions for improvement are presented in this deliverable. They have also been presented and discussed during the third Transition Workshop and have been discussed with the relevant work packages and tasks to guide the implementation of Prototype 3 and further internal version towards the final version of SEAMLESS-IF