Towards Predictive Computational Models of Oncolytic Virus Therapy: Basis for Experimental Validation and Model Selection

Oncolytic viruses are viruses that specifically infect cancer cells and kill them, while leaving healthy cells largely intact. Their ability to spread through the tumor makes them an attractive therapy approach. While promising results have been observed in clinical trials, solid success remains elusive since we lack understanding of the basic principles that govern the dynamical interactions between the virus and the cancer. In this respect, computational models can help experimental research at optimizing treatment regimes. Although preliminary mathematical work has been performed, this suffers from the fact that individual models are largely arbitrary and based on biologically uncertain assumptions. Here, we present a general framework to study the dynamics of oncolytic viruses that is independent of uncertain and arbitrary mathematical formulations. We find two categories of dynamics, depending on the assumptions about spatial constraints that govern that spread of the virus from cell to cell. If infected cells are mixed among uninfected cells, there exists a viral replication rate threshold beyond which tumor control is the only outcome. On the other hand, if infected cells are clustered together (e.g. in a solid tumor), then we observe more complicated dynamics in which the outcome of therapy might go either way, depending on the initial number of cells and viruses. We fit our models to previously published experimental data and discuss aspects of model validation, selection, and experimental design. This framework can be used as a basis for model selection and validation in the context of future, more detailed experimental studies. It can further serve as the basis for future, more complex models that take into account other clinically relevant factors such as immune responses

Horizontal gene transfer dynamics and distribution of fitness effects during microbial in silico evolution

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Horizontal gene transfer (HGT) is a process that facilitates the transfer of genetic material between organisms that are not directly related, and thus can affect both the rate of evolution and emergence of traits. Recent phylogenetic studies reveal HGT events are likely ubiquitous in the Tree of Life. However, our knowledge of HGT's role in evolution and biological organization is very limited, mainly due to the lack of ancestral evolutionary signatures and the difficulty to observe complex evolutionary dynamics in a laboratory setting. Here, we utilize a multi-scale microbial evolution model to comprehensively study the effect of HGT on the evolution of complex traits and organization of gene regulatory networks.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Large-scale simulations reveal a distinct signature of the Distribution of Fitness Effect (DFE) for HGT events: during evolution, while mutation fitness effects become more negative and neutral, HGT events result in a balanced effect distribution. In either case, lethal events are significantly decreased during evolution (33.0% to 3.2%), a clear indication of mutational robustness. Interestingly, evolution was accelerated when populations were exposed to correlated environments of increasing complexity, especially in the presence of HGT, a phenomenon that warrants further investigation. High HGT rates were found to be disruptive, while the average transferred fragment size was linked to functional module size in the underlying biological network. Network analysis reveals that HGT results in larger regulatory networks, but with the same sparsity level as those evolved in its absence. Observed phenotypic variability and co-existing solutions were traced to individual gain/loss of function events, while subsequent re-wiring after fragment integration was necessary for complex traits to emerge.</p

Virulence Evolution of the Human Pathogen Neisseria meningitidis by Recombination in the Core and Accessory Genome

Joseph B, Schwarz RF, Linke B, et al. Virulence Evolution of the Human Pathogen Neisseria meningitidis by Recombination in the Core and Accessory Genome. PLoS ONE. 2011;6(4): e18441.Background: Neisseria meningitidis is a naturally transformable, facultative pathogen colonizing the human nasopharynx. Here, we analyze on a genome-wide level the impact of recombination on gene-complement diversity and virulence evolution in N. meningitidis. We combined comparative genome hybridization using microarrays (mCGH) and multilocus sequence typing (MLST) of 29 meningococcal isolates with computational comparison of a subset of seven meningococcal genome sequences. Principal Findings: We found that lateral gene transfer of minimal mobile elements as well as prophages are major forces shaping meningococcal population structure. Extensive gene content comparison revealed novel associations of virulence with genetic elements besides the recently discovered meningococcal disease associated (MDA) island. In particular, we identified an association of virulence with a recently described canonical genomic island termed IHT-E and a differential distribution of genes encoding RTX toxin-and two-partner secretion systems among hyperinvasive and non-hyperinvasive lineages. By computationally screening also the core genome for signs of recombination, we provided evidence that about 40% of the meningococcal core genes are affected by recombination primarily within metabolic genes as well as genes involved in DNA replication and repair. By comparison with the results of previous mCGH studies, our data indicated that genetic structuring as revealed by mCGH is stable over time and highly similar for isolates from different geographic origins. Conclusions: Recombination comprising lateral transfer of entire genes as well as homologous intragenic recombination has a profound impact on meningococcal population structure and genome composition. Our data support the hypothesis that meningococcal virulence is polygenic in nature and that differences in metabolism might contribute to virulence

Set-membership estimations for the evolution of infectious diseases in heterogeneous populations

The paper presents an approach for set-membership estimation of the state of a heterogeneous population in which an infectious disease is spreading. The population state may consist of susceptible, infected, recovered, etc. groups, where the individuals are heterogeneous with respect to traits, relevant to the particular disease. Set-membership estimations in this context are reasonable, since only vague information about the distribution of the population along the space of heterogeneity is available in practice. The presented approach comprises adapted versions of methods which are known in estimation and control theory, and involve solving parametrized families of optimization problems. Since the models of disease spreading in heterogeneous populations involve distributed systems (with non-local dynamics and endogenous boundary conditions), these problems are non-standard. The paper develops the needed theoretical instruments and a solution scheme. SI and SIR models of epidemic diseases are considered as case studies and the results reveal qualitative properties that may be of interest.Austrian Science Foundation (FWF