Distinguishing patterns in the dynamics of long-term medication use by Markov analysis: beyond persistence

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In order to accurately distinguish gaps of varying length in drug treatment for chronic conditions from discontinuation without resuming therapy, short-term observation does not suffice. Thus, the use of inhalation corticosteroids (ICS) in the long-term, during a ten-year period is investigated. To describe medication use as a continuum, taking into account the timeliness and consistency of refilling, a Markov model is proposed.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Patients, that filled at least one prescription in 1993, were selected from the PHARMO medical record linkage system (RLS) containing >95% prescription dispensings per patient originating from community pharmacy records of 6 medium-sized cities in the Netherlands.</p> <p>The probabilities of continuous use, the refilling of at least one ICS prescription in each year of follow-up, and medication free periods were assessed by Markov analysis. Stratified analysis according to new use was performed.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The transition probabilities of the refilling of at least one ICS prescription in the subsequent year of follow-up, were assessed for each year of follow-up and for the total study period.</p> <p>The change of transition probabilities in time was evaluated, e.g. the probability of continuing ICS use of starters in the first two years (51%) of follow-up increased to more than 70% in the following years. The probabilities of different patterns of medication use were assessed: continuous use (7.7%), cumulative medication gaps (1–8 years 69.1%) and discontinuing (23.2%) during ten-year follow-up for new users. New users had lower probability of continuous use (7.7%) and more variability in ICS refill patterns than previous users (56%).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>In addition to well-established methods in epidemiology to ascertain compliance and persistence, a Markov model could be useful to further specify the variety of possible patterns of medication use within the continuum of adherence. This Markov model describes variation in behaviour and patterns of ICS use and could also be useful to investigate continuous use of other drugs applied in chronic diseases.</p

Prescription of respiratory medication without an asthma diagnosis in children: a population based study

Background. In pre-school children a diagnosis of asthma is not easily made and only a minority of wheezing children will develop persistent atopic asthma. According to the general consensus a diagnosis of asthma becomes more certain with increasing age. Therefore the congruence between asthma medication use and doctor-diagnosed asthma is expected to increase with age. The aim of this study is to evaluate the relationship between prescribing of asthma medication and doctor-diagnosed asthma in children age 0-17. Methods. We studied all 74,580 children below 18 years of age, belonging to 95 GP practices within the second Dutch national survey of general practice (DNSGP-2), in which GPs registered all physician-patient contacts during the year 2001. Status on prescribing of asthma medication (at least one prescription for beta2-agonists, inhaled corticosteroids, cromones or montelukast) and doctor-diagnosed asthma (coded according to the International Classification of Primary Care) was determined. Results. In total 7.5% of children received asthma medication and 4.1% had a diagnosis of asthma. Only 49% of all children receiving asthma medication was diagnosed as an asthmatic. Subgroup analyses on age, gender and therapy groups showed that the Positive Predictive Value (PPV) differs significantly between therapy groups only. The likelihood of having doctor-diagnosed asthma increased when a child received combination therapy of short acting beta2-agonists and inhaled corticosteroids (PPV = 0.64) and with the number of prescriptions (3 prescriptions or more, PPV = 0.66). Both prescribing of asthma medication and doctor-diagnosed asthma declined with age but the congruence between the two measures did not increase with age. Conclusion. In this study, less than half of all children receiving asthma medication had a registered diagnosis of asthma. Detailed subgroup analyses show that a diagnosis of asthma was present in at most 66%, even in groups of children treated intensively with asthma medication. Although age strongly influences the chance of being treated, remarkably, the congruence between prescribing of asthma medication and doctor-diagnosed asthma does not increase with age

Prior outpatient antibiotic use as predictor for microbial aetiology of community-acquired pneumonia: hospital-based study

Objective: The causative micro-organism in community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is often difficult to predict. Different studies have examined chronic morbidity and clinical symptoms as predictors for microbial aetiology of pneumonia. The aim of our study was to assess whether prior outpatient antimicrobial treatment is predictive for determining the microbial aetiology of CAP. Methods: This was a hospital-based prospective observational study including all patients admitted with CAP between 1 October 2004 and 1 August 2006. Microbial investigations included sputum, blood culture, sputum PCR, antigen testing and serology. Exposure to antimicrobial drugs prior to hospital admission was ascertained through community pharmacy dispensing records. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was conducted to assess whether prior outpatient antimicrobial treatment is a predictor of microbial aetiology. Patient demographics, co-morbidities and pneumonia severity were considered to be other potential predictors. Results: Overall, 201 patients were included in the study. The microbial aetiology was determined in 64% of the patients. The five most prevalent pathogens were Streptococcus pneumoniae, Heamophilus influenzae, Legionella spp., Mycoplasma pneumoniae and Influenza virus A+B. Forty-seven of the patients (23%) had received initial antimicrobial treatment as outpatients. Multivariate analyses revealed that initial outpatient beta-lactam treatment was associated with a threefold increased chance of finding atypical pathogens and a threefold decreased probability of pneumococcal infection; the corresponding odds ratios were 3.51 (95% CI 1.25-9.99) and 0.30 (95% CI 0.10-0.90), respectively. Patients who received macrolides prior to hospitalisation had an increased probability of viral pneumonia. Conclusion: Prior outpatient antimicrobial therapy has a predictive value in the diagnostic workup aimed at identifying the causative pathogen and planning corresponding antimicrobial treatment in patients hospitalised for pneumonia

Combined impact of healthy lifestyle factors on colorectal cancer: a large European cohort study

Background: Excess body weight, physical activity, smoking, alcohol consumption and certain dietary factors are individually related to colorectal cancer (CRC) risk; however, little is known about their joint effects. The aim of this study was to develop a healthy lifestyle index (HLI) composed of five potentially modifiable lifestyle factors – healthy weight, physical activity, non-smoking, limited alcohol consumption and a healthy diet, and to explore the association of this index with CRC incidence using data collected within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. Methods: In the EPIC cohort, a total of 347,237 men and women, 25- to 70-years old, provided dietary and lifestyle information at study baseline (1992 to 2000). Over a median follow-up time of 12 years, 3,759 incident CRC cases were identified. The association between a HLI and CRC risk was evaluated using Cox proportional hazards regression models and population attributable risks (PARs) have been calculated. Results: After accounting for study centre, age, sex and education, compared with 0 or 1 healthy lifestyle factors, the hazard ratio (HR) for CRC was 0.87 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.44 to 0.77) for two factors, 0.79 (95% CI: 0.70 to 0.89) for three factors, 0.66 (95% CI: 0.58 to 0.75) for four factors and 0.63 (95% CI: 0.54 to 0.74) for five factors; P-trend <0.0001. The associations were present for both colon and rectal cancers, HRs, 0.61 (95% CI: 0.50 to 0.74; P for trend <0.0001) for colon cancer and 0.68 (95% CI: 0.53 to 0.88; P-trend <0.0001) for rectal cancer, respectively (P-difference by cancer sub-site = 0.10). Overall, 16% of the new CRC cases (22% in men and 11% in women) were attributable to not adhering to a combination of all five healthy lifestyle behaviours included in the index. Conclusions: Combined lifestyle factors are associated with a lower incidence of CRC in European populations characterized by western lifestyles. Prevention strategies considering complex targeting of multiple lifestyle factors may provide practical means for improved CRC prevention. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12916-014-0168-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

Genetic ancestry is associated with colorectal adenomas and adenocarcinomas in Latino populations

Colorectal cancer rates in Latin American countries are less than half of those observed in the United States. Latin Americans are the resultant of generations of an admixture of Native American, European, and African individuals. The potential role of genetic admixture in colorectal carcinogenesis has not been examined. We evaluate the association of genetic ancestry with colorectal neoplasms in 190 adenocarcinomas, 113 sporadic adenomas and 243 age- and sex-matched controls enrolled in a multicentric case–control study in Colombia. Individual ancestral genetic fractions were estimated using the STRUCTURE software, based on allele frequencies and assuming three distinct population origins. We used the Illumina Cancer Panel to genotype 1,421 sparse single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), and Northern and Western European ancestry, LWJ and Han Chinese in Beijing, China populations from the HapMap project as references. A total of 678 autosomal SNPs overlapped with the HapMap data set SNPs and were used for ancestry estimations. African mean ancestry fraction was higher in adenomas (0.13, 95% confidence interval (95% CI)=0.11–0.15) and cancer cases (0.14, 95% CI=0.12–0.16) compared with controls (0.11, 95% CI=0.10–0.12). Conditional logistic regression analysis, controlling for known risk factors, showed a positive association of African ancestry per 10% increase with both colorectal adenoma (odds ratio (OR)=1.12, 95% CI=0.97–1.30) and adenocarcinoma (OR=1.19, 95% CI=1.05–1.35). In conclusion, increased African ancestry (or variants linked to it) contributes to the increased susceptibility of colorectal cancer in admixed Latin American population