Modeling the impact of prevention policies on future diabetes prevalence in the United States: 2010-2030

Background Although diabetes is one of the most costly and rapidly increasing serious chronic diseases worldwide, the optimal mix of strategies to reduce diabetes prevalence has not been determined. Methods Using a dynamic model that incorporates national data on diabetes prevalence and incidence, migration, mortality rates, and intervention effectiveness, we project the effect of five hypothetical prevention policies on future US diabetes rates through 2030: 1) no diabetes prevention strategy; 2) a “high-risk” strategy, wherein adults with both impaired fasting glucose (IFG) (fasting plasma glucose of 100–124 mg/dl) and impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) (2-hour post-load glucose of 141–199 mg/dl) receive structured lifestyle intervention; 3) a “moderate-risk” strategy, wherein only adults with IFG are offered structured lifestyle intervention; 4) a “population-wide” strategy, in which the entire population is exposed to broad risk reduction policies; and 5) a “combined” strategy, involving both the moderate-risk and population-wide strategies. We assumed that the moderate- and high-risk strategies reduce the annual diabetes incidence rate in the targeted subpopulations by 12.5% through 2030 and that the population-wide approach would reduce the projected annual diabetes incidence rate by 2% in the entire US population. Results We project that by the year 2030, the combined strategy would prevent 4.6 million incident cases and 3.6 million prevalent cases, attenuating the increase in diabetes prevalence by 14%. The moderate-risk approach is projected to prevent 4.0 million incident cases, 3.1 million prevalent cases, attenuating the increase in prevalence by 12%. The high-risk and population approaches attenuate the projected prevalence increases by 5% and 3%, respectively. Even if the most effective strategy is implemented (the combined strategy), our projections indicate that the diabetes prevalence rate would increase by about 65% over the 23 years (i.e., from 12.9% in 2010 to 21.3% in 2030). Conclusions While implementation of appropriate diabetes prevention strategies may slow the rate of increase of the prevalence of diabetes among US adults through 2030, the US diabetes prevalence rate is likely to increase dramatically over the next 20 years. Demand for health care services for people with diabetes complications and diabetes-related disability will continue to grow, and these services will need to be strengthened along with primary diabetes prevention efforts

Increasing physical activity in postpartum multiethnic women in Hawaii: results from a pilot study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Mothers of an infant are much less likely to exercise regularly compared to other women. This study tested the efficacy of a brief tailored intervention to increase physical activity (PA) in women 3–12 months after childbirth. The study used a pretest-posttest design. Sedentary women (n = 20) were recruited from a parenting organization. Half the participants were ethnic minorities, mean age was 33 ± 3.8, infants' mean age was 6.9 ± 2.4 months, 50% were primiparas, and mean body mass index was 23.6 ± 4.2.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The two-month intervention included telephone counseling, pedometers, referral to community PA resources, social support, email advice on PA/pedometer goals, and newsletters.</p> <p>The primary outcome of the study was minutes per week of moderate and vigorous leisure-time physical activity measured by the Godin physical activity instrument.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>All women (100%) returned for post-test measures; thus, paired t-tests were used for pre-post increase in minutes of moderate and vigorous leisure-time physical activity and comparisons of moderate and vigorous leisure-time physical activity increases among ethnic groups. At baseline participants' reported a mean of 3 ± 13.4 minutes per week moderate and vigorous leisure-time physical activity. At post-test this significantly increased to 85.5 ± 76.4 minutes per week of moderate and vigorous leisure-time physical activity (p < .001, Cohen's d = 2.2; effect size r = 0.7). There were no differences in pre to post increases in minutes of moderate and vigorous leisure-time physical activity among races.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>A telephone/email intervention tailored to meet the needs of postpartum women was effective in increasing physical activity levels. However, randomized trials comparing tailored telephone and email interventions to standard care and including long-term follow-up to determine maintenance of physical activity are warranted.</p

Predictive Models of Large Neutrino Mixing Angles

Several experimental results could be interpreted as evidence that certain neutrino mixing angles are large, of order unity. However, in the context of grand unified models the neutrino angles come out characteristically to be small, like the KM angles. It is shown how to construct simple grand-unified models in which neutrino angles are not only large but completely predicted with some precision. Six models are presented for illustration.Comment: 19 pages, LaTe

Association of Rare Coding Mutations With Alzheimer Disease and Other Dementias Among Adults of European Ancestry

IMPORTANCE Some of the unexplained heritability of Alzheimer disease (AD) may be due to rare variants whose effects are not captured in genome-wide association studies because very large samples are needed to observe statistically significant associations. OBJECTIVE To identify genetic variants associated with AD risk using a nonstatistical approach. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Genetic association study in which rare variants were identified by whole-exome sequencing in unrelated individuals of European ancestry from the Alzheimer’s Disease Sequencing Project (ADSP). Data were analyzed between March 2017 and September 2018. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Minor alleles genome-wide and in 95 genes previously associated with AD, AD-related traits, or other dementias were tabulated and filtered for predicted functional impact and occurrence in participants with AD but not controls. Support for several findings was sought in a whole-exome sequencing data set comprising 19 affected relative pairs from Utah high-risk pedigrees and whole-genome sequencing data sets from the ADSP and Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative. RESULTS Among 5617 participants with AD (3202 [57.0%] women; mean [SD] age, 76.4 [9.3] years) and 4594 controls (2719 [59.0%] women; mean [SD] age, 86.5 [4.5] years), a total of 24 variants with moderate or high functional impact from 19 genes were observed in 10 or more participants with AD but not in controls. These variants included a missense mutation (rs149307620 [p.A284T], n = 10) in NOTCH3, a gene in which coding mutations are associated with cerebral autosomal-dominant arteriopathy with subcortical infarcts and leukoencephalopathy (CADASIL), that was also identified in 1 participant with AD and 1 participant with mild cognitive impairment in the whole genome sequencing data sets. Four participants with AD carried the TREM2 rs104894002 (p.Q33X) high-impact mutation that, in homozygous form, causes Nasu-Hakola disease, a rare disorder characterized by early-onset dementia and multifocal bone cysts, suggesting an intermediate inheritance model for the mutation. Compared with controls, participants with AD had a significantly higher burden of deleterious rare coding variants in dementia-associated genes (2314 vs 3354 cumulative variants, respectively; P = .006). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Different mutations in the same gene or variable dose of a mutation may be associated with result in distinct dementias. These findings suggest that minor differences in the structure or amount of protein may be associated with in different clinical outcomes. Understanding these genotype-phenotype associations may provide further insight into the pathogenic nature of the mutations, as well as offer clues for developing new therapeutic targets

The impact of seawater saturation state and bicarbonate ion concentration on calcification by new recruits of two Atlantic corals

Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2010. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Springer for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Coral Reefs 30 (2011): 321-328, doi:10.1007/s00338-010-0697-z.Rising concentrations of atmospheric CO2 are changing the carbonate chemistry of the oceans, a process known as ocean acidification (OA). Absorption of this CO2 by the surface oceans is increasing the amount of total dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and bicarbonate ion (HCO3 -) available for marine calcification, yet is simultaneously lowering the seawater pH and carbonate ion concentration ([CO3 2-]), and thus the saturation state of seawater with respect to aragonite (Ωar). We investigated the relative importance of [HCO3 -] versus [CO3 2-] for early calcification by new recruits (primary polyps settled from zooxanthellate larvae) of two tropical coral species, Favia fragum and Porites astreoides. The polyps were reared over a range of Ωar values, which were manipulated by both acid-addition at constant pCO2 (decreased total [HCO3 -] and [CO3 2-]) and by pCO2 elevation at constant alkalinity (increased [HCO3 -], decreased [CO3 2-]). Calcification after two weeks was quantified by weighing the complete skeleton (corallite) accreted by each polyp over the course of the experiment. Both species exhibited the same negative response to decreasing [CO3 2-] whether Ωar was lowered by acid-addition or by pCO2 elevation - calcification did not follow total DIC or [HCO3 -]. Nevertheless, the calcification response to decreasing [CO3 2-] was non-linear. A statistically significant decrease in calcification was only detected between Ωar = < 2.5 and Ωar = 1.1 – 1.5, where calcification of new recruits was reduced by 22 – 37 % per 1.0 decrease in Ωar. Our results differ from many previous studies that report a linear coral calcification response to OA, and from those showing that calcification increases with increasing [HCO3 -]. Clearly, the coral calcification response to OA is variable and complex. A deeper understanding of the biomineralization mechanisms and environmental conditions underlying these 3 variable responses is needed to support informed predictions about future OA impacts on corals and coral reefs.This study was supported by NSF award 0648157 (Cohen and McCorkle), NSF 1041106 (Cohen, McCorkle), NSF 1041052 (de Putron), the VITA foundation (de Putron), WHOI Ocean Life Institute (Cohen), PEI and EEB Departments at Princeton University, Bill and Anne Charrier, and the Anthony B. Evnin, Dean’s Roundtable, and Edmund Hayes Sr. senior thesis funds (Dillon)

MR and CT findings of cyst degeneration of sphenoid bone in McCune-Albright syndrome: a case report

© 2009 Li et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Licens

Effectiveness of a tailored training programme in behaviour change counselling for community pharmacists: A pilot study

Objective: To undertake a pilot study assessing effectiveness of a tailored training programme in behaviour change counselling (BCC) for community pharmacists on, their competence and confidence in delivering behaviour change consultations, skill retention over time and impact on practice. Methods: Community pharmacists (N = 87) attending Primary Care Trust training were given study information and invited to take part. Baseline BCC competence of consenting pharmacists (n = 17) was assessed using the Behaviour Change Counselling Index (BECCI). Following BCC training, competence was reassessed at 1, 3 and 6 months. Friedman’s test was used to compare median BECCI item scores at baseline and after 6 months. Structured interviews were conducted to assess pharmacists’ confidence in BCC consultations after training. Results: Baseline BECCI scores of 0–2 demonstrated pharmacists had not reached competence threshold. Six months after training, BECCI scores improved significantly from baseline (p < 0.05). Competence in delivering BCC (scores of 3–4) was achieved at 3 months, but lost at 6 months for some items. After training, pharmacists felt confident in delivering BCC. Conclusion: Training pharmacists enabled them to deliver BCC competently and confidently. Practice implications: BCC aligns with pharmacist-patient consultations. It took 3 months to achieve competence. Ongoing support may be needed to maintain competence long-term

Neutrino Interactions In Oscillation Experiments

We calculate neutrino induced cross-sections relevant for oscillation experiments, including the $\tau$-lepton threshold for quasi-elastic, resonance and deep inelastic scattering. In addition to threshold effects, we include nuclear corrections for heavy targets which are moderate for quasi-elastic and large for single pion production. Nuclear effects for deep inelastic reactions are small. We present cross sections together with their nuclear corrections for various channels which are useful for interpreting the experimental results and for determining parameters of the neutrino sector..Comment: 24 pages, 18 figure