LEADING INDICATORS OF CURRENCY AND BANKING CRISES: CROATIA AND THE WORLD

The balance of payments crises that have shaken the world in the last two decades have awakened interest in academic and political circles in creating systems for discovering the causes of the disturbances that end in currency crisis. If disturbances on foreign exchange markets could be identified early enough, there might be enough time for policymakers to take measures to avoid or at least diminish the severity of such crises. With this in mind, the present work attempts to develop such a system of early warning for currency crises in Croatia

Features of basement membrane in non-invasive ductal breast cancer

U ovom radu analizirani su podatci dobiveni od 36 pacijentica operiranih na Klinici za tumore 2006. i 2007. godine. Kod svih 36 pacijentica dijagnosticiran je DCIS, a u 12 pacijentica prisutna je dijagnoza mikroinvazivnog karcinoma. Cilj rada bio je imunohistokemijskom metodom utvrditi izraženost poliklonalnog i monoklonalnog anti-laminina u primarnom tumoru dojke, te odrediti njihovu značajnost prema pojavnosti mikroinvazije. Kod pacijentica je također analizirana i značajnost prognostičkih čimbenika dobi, stupnja diferenciranosti tumora te statusa hormonskih receptora estrogena i progesterona i HER2 u odnosu na izraženost laminina i pojavnost mikroinvazije. Srednja dob pacijentica bila je 56,5 godina. Rezultati su pokazali da je poliklonalni anti-laminin značajan prognostički čimbenik određivanja cjelovitosti bazalne membrane i pojavnosti mikroinvazije (p=0,00026) u odnosu na monoklonalni laminin koji nema prognostički značaj određivanja cjelovitosti bazalne membrane kao ni značajan odnos prema pojavnosti mikroinvazije (p=0,23765) (p<0,05 ). Ostali prognostički čimbenici nisu pokazali značajnost s pojavnošću mikroinvazije kod DCIS. Poliklonalni anti-laminin pokazatelj je cjelovitosti bazalne membrane te se može koristiti kao biljeg pri utvrđivanju mikroinvazivnog karcinoma dojke.In this work we analyzed data obtained from case-history of 36 patients operated in Hospital for tumors, Zagreb in period 2006 till 2007 year. Ductal breast cancer in situ (DCIS) were diagnosed in 24 patients while in 12 patient's diagnosis was ductal micro invasive breast cancer. Aim of thesis was to define expression of polyclonal and monoclonal anti-laminin antibodies on basement membrane of duct's in breast cancer using immunohistochemical method. We investigated whether loss of laminin in basement membrane can be a predictive marker for micro invasiveness. We also investigated association between prognostic factors as age of patients, tumor differentiation stage, steroid hormone receptors and HER2 status with anti-laminin expression and micro invasion appearance. Average age of patients was 56.5 years. The results showed that polyclonal anti-laminin is an important predictive factor of micro invasion appearance in DCIS (p=0,00026) comparing to monoclonal anti-laminin (p=0,23765) (p<0,05 ). Other prognostic factors had no significance in micro invasion, neither the importance towards laminin expression on basement membrane. Polyclonal anti-laminin found to be a good indicator of the basement membrane integrity and can be used as predictive marker of micro invasion appearance at DCIS

UA66/13/4 The AHEC Vision, Vol. 1, No. 1

Newsletter created by and about the South Central Kentucky Area Health Education Center

MEASURING AND PREDICTING CURRENCY DISTURBANCES IN CROATIA: THE "SIGNALS" APPROACH

This paper examines the two currency disturbances that took place in Croatia, one at the beginning of 1999 and the other in the summer of 2001. The "signals" approach is used in constructing an effective system of early warning indicators heralding currency disturbances. This system monitors the behavior of various macroeconomic and financial variables that tend to exhibit an unusual behavior in the periods preceding a disturbance or crisis. The paper also proposes composite leading indicators comprising the best signal indicators. The performance of the indicators reveals that the two disturbances were different: the 1999 one came at the end of a banking crisis, while the 2001 disturbance was brought about by a combination of the domestic monetary relaxation and partial capital account liberalization. Since Croatia signed a Stabilization and Association Agreement with the EU that foresees further capital account liberalization, this system of early warning indicators can help the Croatian National Bank and other relevant policymakers along the way

DETERMINANTE VALUTNIH POREMEĆAJA U TRANZICIJSKIM GOSPODARSTVIMA SREDNJE I ISTOČNE EUROPE

This paper explores how the "signals" approach can be used to examine determinants of currency disturbances in transition economies during 1990s.We construct the measure of a currency disturbance - an index of foreign exchange market pressure as a referent series. The "signals" approach is used in constructing an effective system of early warning indicators for each country. The system monitors the behavior of various macroeconomic and financial variables that exhibit an unusual pattern in the periods preceding a disturbance or a crisis. By comparing the resulting systems of early warning indicators we are searching for common determinants of currency disturbances in transition countries in the sample.Ovaj rad ispituje mogućnost primjene signalne metode analize u otkrivanju uzročnika valutnih poremećaja i kriza u tranzicijskim zemljama tijekom 1990-tih godina. S tim je ciljem konstruirana mjera za otkrivanje ozbljnijih valutnih poremećaja - tzv. indeks pritiska na deviznom tržištu, koji se koristi kao referentna serija u istraživanju. Primjenom signalne metode moguće je izraditi sustave za rano upozorenje valutnih kriza za promatrane zemlje uzroka. Takvi sustavi omogućuju praćenje različitih makroekonomskih i financijskih varijabli, čije ponašanje u pretkriznim razdobljima bitno odstupa od njihova kretanja u normalnim razdobljima. Krajnji cilj ovog rada je potraga za mogućim zajedničkim uzročnicima valutnih poremećaja tijekom 90-tih u promatranim tranzicijskim ekonomijama

DUGOROČNI ODNOS IZMEĐU UVOZA I IZVOZA EUROPSKIH TRANZICIJSKIH ZEMALJA

An important aspect of macroeconomic policy is to monitor the time path of the current account, which can be considered as a measure of national net indebtedness. If current account defi cit is stationary, the external debt is sustainable. In this paper we test the long-run relationship between imports and exports in sixteen transition European countries, using quarterly data from different years in the 1990s to the end of 2006. In order to test the possible cointegration between exports and import in the sample countries, we apply the Johansen approach. We find existence of cointegration in 10 out of 16 analyzed countries. However, restrictions on long run coefficient suggest that current account deficit is sustainable only in 5 countries.Nadgledanje vremenske putanje tekućeg računa bilance plaćanja, kojeg možemo smatrati mjerom neto zaduženosti privrede, važan je aspekt makroekonomske politike. Naime, ako je tekući račun stacionaran, vanjski dug je održiv. U ovom radu testiramo dugoročni odnos uvoza i izvoza roba i usluga za šesnaest europskih tranzicijskih zemalja koristeći tromjesečne podatke od devedesetih godina prošlog stoljeća do kraja 2006. Koristi se Johansenova kointegracija da bi se detektiralo postojanje kointegracije između uvoza i izvoza u zemljama iz uzorka. Kod deset zemalja potvrđeno je postojanje kointegracijskog odnosa između uvoza i izvoza. Međutim, uvođenjem restrikcija na dugoročne parametre, zaključuje se da je defi cit tekućeg računa bilance plaćanja održiv u svega pet zemalja

ECONOMIC FORECAST IN CROATIA: CROLEI index

Autorica naglašava zbog čega je metoda indikatora jednostavna i popu¬larna tehnika analize i prognoziranja ekonomskih fluktuacija, navodeći razloge i uzroke učinjenih intervencija prilikom posljednje revizije metode na svršetku godine 1999. Uspoređujući ponašanje prognostičkog indeksa prije i poislije provedene revizije, autorica iznosi brojne analitičke i prognostičke prednosti novog, revidiranog indeksa pred dosadašnjim.In developed economies it is inconceivably to conduct economic, business and development policy without relying upon professional analytical methods, what finally brought to development of the whole spectrum of analytical approaches, from the simplest ones (inquiries, economic tests), across more compound (input-output tables, leading indicators approach), ali to sophisticated parameter methods and models. At this moment economic forecast in Croatia is mainly rooted in the forecast report CROLEI, which methodologically relies upon the leading indicators approach founded by the known American research institution NBER. Development of leading indicators system in Croatia started six years ago, in conditions in which it was objectively not possible, due to too short time series, to build domestic sophisticated econometric model for economic analysis and forecast. In this paper the author stresses why is the indicators method simple and popular technique of the analysis and forecast of economic fluctuations, indicating the reasons and causes of made interventions during the last auditing at the end of 1999. Comparing behaviour of the forecast index before and after the implemented auditing, the author emphasizes numerous analytical and forecast advantages of new revised index in comparison with the past one. The quality and credibility of leading indicators domestic system increasingly grows in the course of time, what arouses optimism in view of future development of this specific forecast method in this country

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF THE BANKING SYSTEM - THE APPLICATION OF “SIGNAL” METHOD

Ovaj je rad pokušaj podrobne analize makroekonomske i financijske pozadine posljednje bankarske krize u Hrvatskoj koja je započela u proljeće godine 1998. Polazeći od postojećih teorijskih objašnjenja uzročnika bankarskihkriza, testira se mogućnost korištenja nove analitičke i prognostičke metode - signalne metode, u izgradnji prvog domaćeg sustava indikatora za rano upozorenje bankarskih poremećaja. Sustavi signalnih indikatora omogućuju kontinuirano praćenje razine osjetljivosti bankarskog tržišta i u kombinaciji s ostalim analitičkim metodama mogu predstavljati značajan izvor informacija monetarnim i ekonomskim vlastima o stupnju financijske stabilnosti u zemlji. Ovaj rad prikazuje početak ozbiljnog istraživačkog poduhvata kojem je krajnji cilj izgraditi efikasan i dinamički sustava za rano upozorenje bankarskih kriza u Hrvatskoj.This paper is an attempt of detailed analysis of macroeconomic and financial back-ground of the last banking crisis in Croatia which started in spring 1998. Taking the existing theoretical explanations of the banking crises’ causes as a starting point, it has been tested the possibility of usage of the new analytical and prognostic method - signal method, in establishment of the first domestic system of indicators for early notification of banking disruptions. The signal indicators systems enable continous observation of sensitivity level of banking market, and combined with other analytical methods they can represent a remarkable source of information for monetary and economic authorities about the level of financial stability in a country. This paper presents the beginning of a serious research undertaking, the final goal of which is development of efficient and dynamic system forearly notification of banking crises in Croatia

Features of basement membrane in non-invasive ductal breast cancer

U ovom radu analizirani su podatci dobiveni od 36 pacijentica operiranih na Klinici za tumore 2006. i 2007. godine. Kod svih 36 pacijentica dijagnosticiran je DCIS, a u 12 pacijentica prisutna je dijagnoza mikroinvazivnog karcinoma. Cilj rada bio je imunohistokemijskom metodom utvrditi izraženost poliklonalnog i monoklonalnog anti-laminina u primarnom tumoru dojke, te odrediti njihovu značajnost prema pojavnosti mikroinvazije. Kod pacijentica je također analizirana i značajnost prognostičkih čimbenika dobi, stupnja diferenciranosti tumora te statusa hormonskih receptora estrogena i progesterona i HER2 u odnosu na izraženost laminina i pojavnost mikroinvazije. Srednja dob pacijentica bila je 56,5 godina. Rezultati su pokazali da je poliklonalni anti-laminin značajan prognostički čimbenik određivanja cjelovitosti bazalne membrane i pojavnosti mikroinvazije (p=0,00026) u odnosu na monoklonalni laminin koji nema prognostički značaj određivanja cjelovitosti bazalne membrane kao ni značajan odnos prema pojavnosti mikroinvazije (p=0,23765) (p<0,05 ). Ostali prognostički čimbenici nisu pokazali značajnost s pojavnošću mikroinvazije kod DCIS. Poliklonalni anti-laminin pokazatelj je cjelovitosti bazalne membrane te se može koristiti kao biljeg pri utvrđivanju mikroinvazivnog karcinoma dojke.In this work we analyzed data obtained from case-history of 36 patients operated in Hospital for tumors, Zagreb in period 2006 till 2007 year. Ductal breast cancer in situ (DCIS) were diagnosed in 24 patients while in 12 patient's diagnosis was ductal micro invasive breast cancer. Aim of thesis was to define expression of polyclonal and monoclonal anti-laminin antibodies on basement membrane of duct's in breast cancer using immunohistochemical method. We investigated whether loss of laminin in basement membrane can be a predictive marker for micro invasiveness. We also investigated association between prognostic factors as age of patients, tumor differentiation stage, steroid hormone receptors and HER2 status with anti-laminin expression and micro invasion appearance. Average age of patients was 56.5 years. The results showed that polyclonal anti-laminin is an important predictive factor of micro invasion appearance in DCIS (p=0,00026) comparing to monoclonal anti-laminin (p=0,23765) (p<0,05 ). Other prognostic factors had no significance in micro invasion, neither the importance towards laminin expression on basement membrane. Polyclonal anti-laminin found to be a good indicator of the basement membrane integrity and can be used as predictive marker of micro invasion appearance at DCIS