Identifiability in Age/Period/Cohort Mortality Models

The addition of a set of cohort parameters to a mortality model can generate complex identifiability issues due to the collinearity between the dimensions of age, period and cohort. These issues can lead to robustness problems and difficulties making projections of future mortality rates. Since many modern mortality models incorporate cohort parameters, we believe that a comprehensive analysis of the identifiability issues in age/period/cohort mortality models is needed. In this paper, we discuss the origin of identifiability issues in general models before applying these insights to simple but commonly used mortality models. We then discuss how to project mortality models so that our forecasts of the future are independent of any arbitrary choices we make when fitting a model to data in order to identify the historical parameters

An introduction to interactive sonification

The research field of sonification, a subset of the topic of auditory display, has developed rapidly in recent decades. It brings together interests from the areas of data mining, exploratory data analysis, human–computer interfaces, and computer music. Sonification presents information by using sound (particularly nonspeech), so that the user of an auditory display obtains a deeper understanding of the data or processes under investigation by listening

Positive associations between consumerism and tobacco and alcohol use in early adolescence: cross-sectional study

<p>Background: There is concern about the negative impact of modern consumer culture on young people's mental health, but very few studies have investigated associations with substance use. In those which have, positive associations have been attributed to attempts to satisfy the unmet needs of more materialistic individuals.</p> <p>Objectives: This study examines associations between different dimensions of consumerism and tobacco and alcohol use among Scottish early adolescents.</p> <p>Design: Cross-sectional study.</p> <p>Setting and participants: 2937 (92% of those eligible) secondary school pupils (ages 12–14) completed questionnaires in examination conditions. Analyses were restricted to those with complete data on all relevant variables (N=2736 smoking; N=2737 drinking).</p> <p>Measures: Dependent variables comprised ever smoking and current drinking. Measures of consumerism comprised number of ‘premium’ (range 0–7) and ‘standard’ (range 0–5) material possessions and three Consumer Involvement subscales, ‘dissatisfaction’, ‘consumer orientation’ and ‘brand awareness’ (each range 3–12). Analyses also included school-year group and family affluence.</p> <p>Results: Ever smoking and current drinking were both more prevalent among adolescents with more ‘premium’ and ‘standard’ material possessions, greater consumer ‘dissatisfaction’ and ‘brand awareness’ (mutually adjusted analyses including school-year group and family affluence). The strongest relationships occurred for ‘brand awareness’: for each unit increase in ‘brand awareness’ the ORs (95% CI) of ever smoking were 1.17 (1.08 to 1.26) and 1.23 (1.14 to 1.33) in males and females, respectively; and those for drinking were 1.15 (1.08 to 1.23) and 1.21 (1.13 to 1.30). ‘Brand awareness’ had an equal or stronger relationship with both smoking and drinking than did family affluence.</p> <p>Conclusions: These results suggest aassociations between consumerism and both smoking and drinking might arise because adolescent identities incorporate both consumerism and substance use, or be the result of promotion (indirectly in the case of tobacco) linking consumerist or aspirational lifestyles with these behaviours.</p&gt

Orientation of \u3ci\u3eHylobius Pales\u3c/i\u3e and \u3ci\u3ePachylobius Picivorus\u3c/i\u3e (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) to Visual Cues

Pitfall traps with above-ground silhouettes of various colors and diameters were used in field tests to evaluate the role of vision in host orientation by adult pales weevils, Hylobius pales, and pitch-eating weevils, Pachylobius picivorus. White traps (11 em outer diameter) baited with ethanol and turpentine caught significantly more weevils than similarly baited black or green traps (11 cm outer diameter). Trap diameter (range of 6-22 cm outer diameter) did not affect trap catch. Pitfall traps can be used to monitor root weevil populations in young pine plantations and Christmas tree farms, where they are major pests. These results demonstrate that visual and chemical cues can be integrated to improve trap efficiency

Managing multiple morbidity in mid-life: a qualitative study of attitudes to drug use

OBJECTIVE: To examine attitudes towards drug use among middle aged respondents with high levels of chronic morbidity. DESIGN: Qualitative study with detailed interviews. SETTING: West of Scotland. PARTICIPANTS: 23 men and women aged about 50 years with four or more chronic illnesses. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Participants' feelings about long term use of drugs to manage chronic multiple morbidity. RESULTS: Drugs occupied a central place in the way people managed their comorbidities. Respondents expressed an aversion to taking drugs, despite acknowledging that they depended on drugs to live as "normal" a life as possible. Respondents expressed ambivalence to their drugs in various ways. Firstly, they adopted both regular and more flexible regimens and might adhere to a regular regimen in treating one condition (such as hypertension) while adopting a flexible regimen in relation to others, in response to their experience of symptoms or varying demands of their daily life. Secondly, they expressed reluctance to take drugs, but an inability to be free of them. Thirdly, drugs both facilitated performance of social roles and served as evidence of an inability to perform such roles. CONCLUSIONS: Insight into the considerable tension experienced by people managing complex drug regimens to manage multiple chronic illness may help medical carers to support self care practices among patients and to optimise concordance in their use of prescribed drugs

M2M modelling of the Galactic disc via PRIMAL: Fitting to Gaia Error Added Data

We have adapted our made-to-measure (M2M) algorithm PRIMAL to use mock Milky Way like data constructed from an N-body barred galaxy with a boxy bulge in a known dark matter potential. We use M0 giant stars as tracers, with the expected error of the ESA space astrometry mission Gaia. We demonstrate the process of constructing mock Gaia data from an N-body model, including the conversion of a galactocentric Cartesian coordinate N-body model into equatorial coordinates and how to add error to it for a single stellar type. We then describe the modifications made to PRIMAL to work with observational error. This paper demonstrates that PRIMAL can recover the radial profiles of the surface density, radial velocity dispersion, vertical velocity dispersion and mean rotational velocity of the target disc, along with the pattern speed of the bar, to a reasonable degree of accuracy despite the lack of accurate target data. We also construct mock data which take into account dust extinction and show that PRIMAL recovers the structure and kinematics of the disc reasonably well. In other words, the expected accuracy of the Gaia data is good enough for PRIMAL to recover these global properties of the disc, at least in a simplified condition, as used in this paper.Comment: 16 pages, 10 figures, submitted to MNRAS 17th Dec 2013, accepted 30th June 201

Occupational therapists' perceptions of predischarge home assessments with older adults in acute care

Predischarge occupational therapy home assessments are routinely performed with older adults in Europe, Australia and North America. Their primary aim is to facilitate a timely and safe discharge from hospital. However, there is a lack of published research on this topic, especially studies exploring occupational therapists' perceptions of home assessments. The paper aims to redress this by describing occupational therapists' perceptions of predischarge occupational therapy home assessments with older adults in acute care. All occupational therapists who undertook home assessments in an acute care hospital with older adults during the duration of the study period were invited to complete a reflective diary. In total, 15 reflective diaries were completed by six therapists. The data were analysed using thematic content analysis. The findings suggest that home assessments were carried out because of mobility or environmental concerns. Satisfaction and dissatisfaction with the outcome of the home assessment were related to the incidents that occurred during the assessment. Some of the occupational therapists' anxieties were related to the older adults' level of functioning or ill health, and the older adults' own concerns did have an impact upon the therapists' expectations of the home assessment process