De-risking policies as a substantial determinant of climate change mitigation costs in developing countries: Case study of the Middle East and North African region

Ambitious goals for climate change mitigation and energy security policies are driving deployment of renewable energy sources globally. However, the deployment of renewable energies at scale requires not only public but also private capital, such as foreign direct investment (FDI). Many countries with favourable conditions for renewables, such as the countries of the Middle East and North African (MENA) region, are not attracting sufficient FDI. Risk perceptions of FDI stakeholders are one of the reasons. This paper discusses the de-risking approach as a possible tool to address subjective risk perceptions and assesses with a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model macroeconomic feedback-effects of employing a de-risking strategy for FDI into a particular kind of renewable electricity (RES-E) technology, concentrated solar power, in the MENA region. Our results show that the application of a de-risking approach reduces the costs for deployment of CSP, and therefore, also volumes of subsidies that would be needed to make CSP cost competitive with fossil fuel based electricity generation. This, in turn, leads to positive GDP and welfare effects in the MENA region. Our results allow us developing of recommendations for energy policy the implementation of the de-risking approach as a potential consensual option with high political feasibility to reduce climate change mitigation costs

Developing a Growth Model of Household Heterogeneity, Human Capital Investment, and Impacts of Disaster Events

This study develops a simple monetary growth model of the sluggish factor-price adjustment to examine GDP growth and distributional implications of climate-related disasters with a special focus on human capital investment in developing countries. The model demonstrates an endogenous business cycle through integration of nonlinear factors associated with the money-demand function and the human capital investment function. The results of the numerical analysis suggest that there is the possibility that a disaster occurring in an economy experiencing unemployment increases GDP in the short run but hampers growth in the long run. This is due to the interruption of human-capital investment, implying that the widespread view that a disaster causes short-run adverse GDP impacts may not always hold true and negative indirect impacts may manifest in the long-term. On such a path, development in disaster mitigation infrastructure could reduce human-capital gaps in the long run by supporting continued post-disaster human-capital investment opportunities for the poor. The study further points out the methodological potential of the nonlinear dynamic model for analyzing indirect risks. The nonlinear feature of our model derives long-term non-monotonic impacts on economic dynamics that are sensitive to small changes in initial values and direct disaster damages. This allows for the estimation of various qualitative and quantitative market responses associated with a macroeconomic situation such as a boom and recession, and the possibilities of lagged influences

Climate-related Disaster and Human Capital Investment in the Global South — Household Heterogeneity and Growth

This study develops a dynamic model of climate-related disaster impacts, considering multidimensional household heterogeneity, for analyzing changes in growth and inequality in low-income countries. Focusing on human capital development, the study demonstrates the multiple impacts of disaster risk reduction (DRR) policies on human capital investment, including the effect of schooling opportunities for households constrained by the subsistence consumption constraint. Through numerical simulations performed for two economies that differ in terms of human capital, modeled after Madagascar and Fiji, it is illustrated that the possibilities of involuntary unemployment and the work-learning choice drive the diversity in macroeconomic impacts of a disaster. In an economy characterized by low levels of human capital, a disaster could cause an increase in labor supply in the immediate aftermath, but interrupt human capital formation, impeding long-term growth and human capital formation. Such a result contradicts prevailing intuition by demonstrating that a disaster occurring in an economy under recession may not result in a large adverse GDP impact in the short run but may negatively impact growth in the long run. On such a path, a policy of development in DRR infrastructure with appropriate taxation could reduce human-capital gaps in the long run by supporting continued post-disaster human-capital-investment opportunities for the poor

Bouncing Forward Sustainably: Pathways to a post-COVID World. Governance for Sustainability

The ongoing COVID-19 crisis is generating massive adverse socio-economic impacts for societies around the globe and brings many issues of relevance for ongoing sustainability transformations into the spotlight. One such issue is the role of governance for sustainability, for which COVID-19 provides encouraging as well as challenging lessons. In this background note, we draw first, tentative lessons on how COVID-19 management has been governed across levels of governance, focusing on identifying opportunities for enhancing governance for sustainability including for tackling climate change

Adaptive risk management strategies for governments under future climate and socioeconomic change: An application to riverine flood risk at the global level

Climate-related disaster risks pose a threat to sustainable development today and in the future. Major global agendas, such as the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and the Sustainable Development Goals, address ways of developing effective management strategies for tackling such risks. Risk management is increasingly focusing on low probability but high impact events, next to the more traditional attention on expected losses. We focus on urban riverine flood risk across 200 countries for today, 2030, and 2080, and develop a risk-threshold approach for identifying whether a country is exposed to risk of extreme events and, if so, when and how much. Furthermore, we apply a risk-layer approach to delineate the kinds of risk reduction or financing instruments that may be needed to manage emerging risks at the national level. Based on these country-level results, we analyze the macroeconomic consequences of setting up a global fund as one international option for coping with floods today and in the future. An additional macroeconomic analysis of different funding schemes for capitalizing the global fund provides insights into linking national risk management efforts with global efforts to manage risks. The global fund could be capitalized according to different equality principles. Our results provide an argument for an equity-based capitalization principle rather than a risk-based one, as the former makes damages at the local level a global responsibility

Functionality of the GAL4/UAS system in Tribolium requires the use of endogenous core promoters

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The red flour beetle <it>Tribolium castaneum </it>has developed into an insect model system second only to <it>Drosophila</it>. Moreover, as a coleopteran it represents the most species-rich metazoan taxon which also includes many pest species. The genetic toolbox for <it>Tribolium </it>research has expanded in the past years but spatio-temporally controlled misexpression of genes has not been possible so far.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Here we report the establishment of the GAL4/UAS binary expression system in <it>Tribolium castaneum</it>. Both GAL4Δ and GAL4VP16 driven by the endogenous heat shock inducible promoter of the <it>Tribolium hsp68 </it>gene are efficient in activating reporter gene expression under the control of the Upstream Activating Sequence (UAS). UAS driven ubiquitous tGFP fluorescence was observed in embryos within four hours after activation while <it>in-situ </it>hybridization against tGFP revealed expression already after two hours. The response is quick in relation to the duration of embryonic development in <it>Tribolium </it>- 72 hours with segmentation being completed after 24 hours - which makes the study of early embryonic processes possible using this system. By comparing the efficiency of constructs based on <it>Tribolium, Drosophila</it>, and artificial core promoters, respectively, we find that the use of endogenous core promoters is essential for high-level expression of transgenic constructs.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>With the established GAL4/UAS binary expression system, ectopic misexpression approaches are now feasible in <it>Tribolium</it>. Our results support the contention that high-level transgene expression usually requires endogenous regulatory sequences, including endogenous core promoters in <it>Tribolium </it>and probably also other model systems.</p

Large-scale insertional mutagenesis of a coleopteran stored grain pest, the red flour beetle Tribolium castaneum, identifies embryonic lethal mutations and enhancer traps

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Given its sequenced genome and efficient systemic RNA interference response, the red flour beetle <it>Tribolium castaneum </it>is a model organism well suited for reverse genetics. Even so, there is a pressing need for forward genetic analysis to escape the bias inherent in candidate gene approaches.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>To produce easy-to-maintain insertional mutations and to obtain fluorescent marker lines to aid phenotypic analysis, we undertook a large-scale transposon mutagenesis screen. In this screen, we produced more than 6,500 new <it>piggyBac </it>insertions. Of these, 421 proved to be recessive lethal, 75 were semi-lethal, and eight indicated recessive sterility, while 505 showed new enhancer-trap patterns. Insertion junctions were determined for 403 lines and often appeared to be located within transcription units. Insertion sites appeared to be randomly distributed throughout the genome, with the exception of a preference for reinsertion near the donor site.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>A large collection of enhancer-trap and embryonic lethal beetle lines has been made available to the research community and will foster investigations into diverse fields of insect biology, pest control, and evolution. Because the genetic elements used in this screen are species-nonspecific, and because the crossing scheme does not depend on balancer chromosomes, the methods presented herein should be broadly applicable for many insect species.</p

Kapitel 27. Theorien des Wandels und der Gestaltung von Strukturen: Bereitstellungsperspektive

Die Bereitstellungsperspektive untersucht geeignete Strukturen klimafreundlichen Lebens ausgehend von Bereitstellungssystemen, die suffiziente und resiliente Praktiken und Lebensformen erleichtern und damit selbstverständlich machen. Sie ermöglicht eine ganzheitliche Sichtweise, um langfristige Klimawandelmitigation und -anpassung mit der kurzfristigen Sicherung der Grundversorgung und dem Schutz vor Naturgefahren zu verbinden

Kapitel 28. Theorien des Wandels und der Gestaltung von Strukturen: Gesellschaftsperspektive

Die Gesellschaftsperspektive beschäftigt sich mit historisch entstandenen, tiefenwirksamen Treibern der Klimakrise. Ihr Fokus liegt auf klimaschädlichen Merkmalen von Natur-Mensch-Beziehungen, die für die westliche Moderne typisch und auch in Österreich wirksam sind. Dazu zählen Wachstumszwang, Kapitalakkumulation, dualistische Verständnisse von Natur und Mensch, Vorstellungen und Praktiken der Naturbeherrschung, sozial-ökologische Ungleichheit und disziplinäre Wissensproduktion

Loss and damage and limits to adaptation: recent IPCC insights and implications for climate science and policy

Recent evidence shows that climate change is leading to irreversible and existential impacts on vulnerable communities and countries across the globe. Among other effects, this has given rise to public debate and engagement around notions of climate crisis and emergency. The Loss and Damage (L&D) policy debate has emphasized these aspects over the last three decades. Yet, despite institutionalization through an article on L&D by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in the Paris Agreement, the debate has remained vague, particularly with reference to its remit and relationship to adaptation policy and practice. Research has recently made important strides forward in terms of developing a science perspective on L&D. This article reviews insights derived from recent publications by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and others, and presents the implications for science and policy. Emerging evidence on hard and soft adaptation limits in certain systems, sectors and regions holds the potential to further build momentum for climate policy to live up to the Paris ambition of stringent emission reductions and to increase efforts to support the most vulnerable. L&D policy may want to consider actions to extend soft adaptation limits and spur transformational, that is, non-standard risk management and adaptation, so that limits are not breached. Financial, technical, and legal support would be appropriate for instances where hard limits are transgressed. Research is well positioned to further develop robust evidence on critical and relevant risks at scale in the most vulnerable countries and communities, as well as options to reduce barriers and limits to adaptation