France and the EU under Sarkozy: between European ambitions and national objectives?

The early phase of Nicolas Sarkozy's presidency proved highly proactive, particularly during the French presidency of the European Union (EU). However, little of practical import resulted. Moreover, there is much that connects Sarkozy's policies to those of his predecessors. Constrained both at home and abroad, he was sometimes unable to carry through his preferred policies. In addition, Sarkozy has done nothing to resolve a long-standing tension of French EU policy between enormous ambitions for the Union and reluctance to empower its institutions. Intergovernmental co-operation has been the theme linking all of Sarkozy's initiatives. The jury is, of necessity, still out on the long-term impact Sarkozy will have. Early indications are that, whilst there has been no shortage of initiatives, it is open to question whether these either diverge much from those of his predecessors, or will have much impact on the workings and effectiveness of the Union itself

QUATERNARY DEFORMATION OF THE MAVROPIGI LIGNITE FIELD (WESTERN MARGIN OF PTOLEMAIS - KOZANI GRABEN, NW MACEDONIA, GREECE)

The present study aims to analyse in details the tectono-sedimentary processes of the western borderline of the intra-continental graben of Ptolemais-Kozani in NW Macedonia, given the presentday mining activity of Public Power Corporation. Field studies in combination with drilling analysis revealed the extremely geometrical complexity of the sedimentary fill as the result of the recent Quaternary deformation. Bearing in mind, the recognition of left-lateral strike-slip component of movement in the western border fault zone-Mavropigi shear zone, the geometrical coincidence of the morphological shapes of the present-day morphology-of the top-of the bottom of the Pliocene earthy lignite sequence and of the sub-surface morphology of the pre-Cretaceous Pelagonian basement as well as the discovery of several reverse faults in the surrounding area have allowed us to accept the action of a composite Quaternary deformational pattern. For the first time in NW Macedonia, ductile-brittle type macrostructures (mega-anticlines) with NE-SW axis direction are confirmed, showing the simultaneous and progressive action of ductile and brittle deformation of all the geological formations of the western borderline, sedimentary fill and metamorphic basement. The aforementioned geometrical complexity and also the observed field structures strongly reveal the action of a rotational couple-type stress field in Ptolemais-Kozani graben, enclosed in the incapiate in-type deformation of NW Macedonia. In this framework, the occurrence of the extensional post-orogenic structures, which seems that they have been overestimated by previous researchers in the literature, is considered of secondary importance and constitutes part and expression of the complicated Quaternary tectonic structures of the sedimentary fill. This complex deformational pattern controls and also defines the spatial distribution of the lignite reserves in the Mavropigi Lignite Field with a southward increasing of them as well as causes regions with a composite or a simple post-orogenic geometry and evolution, directly reflected by the sub-surface geometry of the Pliocene lignite sequence. The aforementioned complicated geometry is of great importance, either for the planning and the future expansion of the Mavropigi Lignite Field in the western borderline, or for the better approach of the intra-plate deformational processes of Ptolemais-Kozani graben

Short Communication. Comparing flammability traits among fire-stricken (low elevation) and non fire-stricken (high elevation) conifer forest species of Europe: A test of the Mutch hypothesis

Aim of study. The flammability of the main coniferous forest species of Europe, divided into two groups according to their fire regime and altitudinal distribution, was tested in an effort to detect species-specific differences that may have an influence on community-wide fire regimes.Area of study. Conifer species comprising low- and high-elevation forests in Europe.Materials and Methods. The following conifer species were tested: low elevation; Pinus halepensis (Aleppo pine), Pinus brutia (Turkish pine), Pinus pinaster (maritime pine), Pinus pinea (stone pine) and Cupressus sempervirens (cypress), high elevation (i.e., above 600 m a.s.l.); Pinus sylvestris (Scots pine), Abies alba (white fir), Picea excelsa (Norway spruce), Abies borissii regis (Macedonian fir) and Pinus nigra (black pine). Flammability assessment (time-to-ignition and ignition temperature) was conducted by an innovative ignition apparatus, heat content was measured with an IKA Adiabatic Bomb Calorimeter and ash content by heating 5 g of plant material in a muffle furnace at 650ºC for 1 h. Differences among species was statistically analysed by Duncan’s multiple comparison test.Main results. The results did not distinguish separate groups among traits between fire- and non-fire-stricken communities at the individual species level.Research highlights. Differences in fire regimes among low and high elevation conifer forests could be attributed either to differences in flammability of the plant communities as a whole (i.e., fuelbed or canopy properties vs. individual fuel properties) or to other factors (climatic or anthropogenic).Key words: flammability; ignitability; heat content; ash content; conifer species; Mutch hypothesis

Dimensional analysis of yielding and pounding structures for records without distinct pulses

The seismic response of two fundamental mechanical configurations of earthquake engineering, the elastic–plastic system and the pounding oscillator, is revisited with the aid of dimensional analysis. Starting from the previous work of the authors which focused on pulse-type excitations, the paper offers an alternative, yet physically motivated, way to present the response of yielding and pounding structures under excitations with arbitrary time history. It is shown, that when the appropriate time and length scales are adopted, dimensional analysis can be implemented and remarkable order emerges in the response. Regardless of the acceleration level and frequency content of the excitation, all response spectra become self-similar and when expressed in dimensionless terms, resulting from dimensional analysis, follow a single master curve. The study proposes such scales together with the associated selection criteria among the available in literature strong ground motion parameters and shows that the proposed approach reduces drastically the scatter in the response

Dimensional analysis of the earthquake-induced pounding between inelastic structures

In this paper the seismic response of inelastic structures with unilateral contact is revisited with dimensional analysis. All physically realizable contact types are captured via a non-smooth complementarity approach. The implementation of formal dimensional analysis leads to a condensed presentation of the response and unveils remarkable order even though two different types of non-linearity coexist in the response: the boundary non-linearity of unilateral contact and the inelastic behaviour of the structure itself. It is shown that regardless the intensity and frequency content of the excitation, all response spectra become self-similar when expressed in the appropriate dimensionless terms. The proposed approach hinges upon the notion of the energetic length scale of an excitation which measures the persistence of ground shaking to impose deformation demands. Using the concept of persistency which is defined for excitations with or without distinct pulses, the response is scaled via meaningful novel intensity measures: the dimensionless gap and the dimensionless yield displacement. The study confirms that contact may have a different effect on the response displacements of inelastic structures depending on the spectral region. In adjacent inelastic structures, such as colliding buildings or interacting bridge segments, contact is likely to alter drastically the excitation frequencies’ at which the system is most vulnerable. Finally, it is shown that the proposed approach yields maximum response displacements which correlate very well with the persistency of real earthquakes for a bridge system with considerably complex behaviour

Bayesian analysis of periodic asymmetric power GARCH models

In this paper, we set up a generalized periodic asymmetric power GARCH (PAP-GARCH) model whose coefficients, power, and innovation distribution are periodic over time. We first study its properties, such as periodic ergodicity, finiteness of moments and tail behavior of the marginal distributions. Then, we develop an MCMC algorithm, based on the Griddy-Gibbs sampler, under various distributions of the innovation term (Gaussian, Student-t, mixed Gaussian-Student-t). To assess our estimation method we conduct volatility and Value-at-Risk forecasting. Our model is compared against other competing models via the Deviance Information Criterion (DIC). The proposed methodology is applied to simulated and real data

Periodic autoregressive conditional duration

We propose an autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) model with periodic time-varying parameters and multiplicative error form. We name this model periodic autoregressive conditional duration (PACD). First, we study the stability properties and the moment structures of it. Second, we estimate the model parameters, using (profile and two-stage) Gamma quasi-maximum likelihood estimates (QMLEs), the asymptotic properties of which are examined under general regularity conditions. Our estimation method encompasses the exponential QMLE, as a particular case. The proposed methodology is illustrated with simulated data and two empirical applications on forecasting Bitcoin trading volume and realized volatility. We found that the PACD produces better in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts than the standard ACD