Climatic indices in assessing of temperature and precipitation patterns in Turkey

Ponencia presentada en: VI Congreso Internacional de la Asociación Española de Climatología celebrado en Tarragona del 8 al 11 de octubre de 2008

Dynamical processes effecting laminar structure in ozone profiles: A case study of Ankara

Günümüzde Montreal Protokolü ile kontrol altına alınan klor ve brom içeren ve ozona zarar veren kimyasal bileşikler nedeniyle stratosferik ozon son 30 yıldır azalmaktadır. Stratosferik ozon ve iklim arasında oldukça karmaşık etkileşimler bulunmaktadır. Stratosferik sıcaklık ve taşınımda meydana gelen değişimler stratosferik ozonun dağılımına ve konsantrasyonuna etki etmekte; iklim değişimleri stratosferik sirkülasyonu etkilemekte; stratosferik ozonda meydana gelen değişimler atmosferin radyatif bütçesini ve buna bağlı olarak da iklimini etkilemektedir. Kuzey yarıküre orta enlemlerinde ozon, dinamik etkilere duyarlıdır. Kış sonu ilkbahar başında hem aşağı stratosferden düşey taşınım hem de yatay izentropik taşınım orta enlem aşağı stratosfer bölgelerinde ozon değişkenliği üzerine katkı yapmaktadır. Ozonsonde ile ölçülen ozon verileri ozonun maksimum değeri altında düz bir profile sahip değildir. Özellikle kış mevsimi ya da ilkbaharda elde edilen ozon profillerinde ozon konsantrasyonunun bir sonucu olarak artan ya da azalan ince bir tabaka şeklinde gözlenen bu yapıya lamine ya da filament adı verilir. Lamine yapıyı etkileyen olası termik ve dinamik etkenlerin, seçilen bölge üzerinde etkili olan parametreleri ve bu parametrelerin etki şekillerinin ortaya çıkarılması hedeflenmektedir. Bu çalışmada Ankara’da bulunan ozonsonde istasyonundan alınan 1997-2008 dönemine ait ozon profillerinin lamine yapıları ile troposferik ve stratosferik davranışları araştırılmıştır. Elde edilen sonuçlar bu bölgede hakim olan salınımlar, solar döngü gibi dinamik etkiler yardımıyla incelenmiş; 395, 475 ve 600K seviyeleri izentropik analizleri yapılmıştır. Ozon profillerinin 2005-2008 arasındaki değişimleri ENVISAT’a ait SCIAMACHY uydusundan alınan aynı döneme ait ozon profilleriyle de karşılaştırılmıştır. Sonuçlar lamine yapının özellikle kış ve ilkbahar mevsiminde görüldüğünü ortaya koymakta ve lamine yapıdaki artış toplam ozonda da artışa neden olmaktadır. Anahtar Kelimeler: Ozon, lamine, dinamik süreçler.Stratospheric ozone has been depleted over the last 30 years due to chlorine and bromine containing chemicals that are regulated under the Montreal Protocol nowadays. There is a complex interaction between stratospheric ozone and climate. Changes in stratospheric transport and temperature effect the concentration and distribution of stratospheric ozone; changes in climate effect stratospheric circulation; changes in stratospheric ozone influence radiation budget of the atmosphere and climate. Ozone in the mid-latitudes of Northern Hemisphere is sensitive to dynamical effects. During late winter and early spring both vertical transport and horizontal isentropic transport from the lower stratosphere contribute to ozone variability in the lower stratosphere over mid-latitudes. As well as the information ozone soundings have provided on the vertical distribution of ozone, they are the source of knowledge on ozone amounts. Ozonesondes are the instruments providing year-round profiles of ozone through the lowermost stratosphere of Northern Hemisphere. Measurements of the vertical profile of ozone concentration by balloon-borne ECC (Electrochemical Concentration Cell) ozonesondes have been made since 1994 at least once in a month in Ankara. The ozone profiles measured by ozonesondes do not display a smooth shape below the maximum of the ozone layer. Relatively narrow layers of substantially increased or depressed ozone observed in the measured ozone profiles in the late winter and early spring is called laminae or filament. Laminae basically occur between the tropopause and the ozone maximum and is confined to lower stratosphere. The occurence frequency reveals a very strong seasonal variation with early spring maximum and fall minimum. In recent years the existence of the layers with depleted and enchanced ozone mixing ratios has been reported. The first systematic analysis of the laminated ozone structure was reported by Dobson (1973). In his analysis the criteria for the detection of the laminae in a certain height distance was the change of ozone to be greater than 3 mPa. It has been found that the features of laminae vary with season and latitude. Various further studies with different analysis methods have shown that the laminar structure varies with season, latitude, and the effects of dynamical processes. Laminae in ozonesonde profiles have been used in several studies as an indicator of transport. Following Reid and Vaughan (1991) laminae is defined as a sharp phenomenon deviated from the general shape of an ozone profile by at least 20 nanobars, in order not to confuse with gravity waves. In this study it is aimed to examine the thermal and dynamical effects on the laminar structure and the parameters effecting the study area. Upper level temperatures, pressure heights, potential vorticity, oscillation indices, solar cycle, polar vortex are the most effective of all parameters. Ozone profiles of Ankara-Turkey ozone sounding station for the period 1997-2008 were processed. The data was obtained from WOUDC (World Ozone and Ultraviolet Radiation Data Centre) and TSMS (Turkish State Meteorological Service). Since the data of ozonesondes for the period of 2001-2004 were missing due to software difference problem between WOUDC and TSMS, the laminar structure of the profiles of 1997-2001 and 2004-2008 were examined. The results were compared with the dynamical effects of the region and isentropic analysis were made for the 395 K, 475 K and 600 K isentropic levels respectively. The variation of the profiles for the 2005-2008 period were compared with ENVISAT (Environmental Satellite) SCIAMACHY (SCanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric ChartograhY) data. Ozonesondes were examined for six pressure levels; ground-630 hPa; 630-400 hPa; 400-250 hPa; 250-158 hPa; 158-100 hPa and 100-30 hPa, and the trend of the ozonsonde for the selected time range was identified. The ground-level trends are found to be larger in general than those in the rest five atmospheric layers. Since laminae is minor compared to the total column ozone, the relation between the indices of the AO (Arctic Oscillation) and NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) and the total ozone content obtained from TOMS (Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer)-OMI (Ozone Monitoring Instrument) measurements are examined. The results show that the overall ozone content in laminae has a strong seasonal variation with a maximum in late winter/early spring and a minimum in fall. Laminae seem to contribute to seasonal variation of trends in total ozone. The ozonesonde trend is found to be positive for the selected time range. Keywords: Ozone, laminae, dynamical effects

Avrupa hava kirleticilerinin Doğu Akdeniz bölgesine taşınımının modellenmesi

Measurements of some air pollution species in a rural station located near Antalya (36.47N, 30.34E) on the eastern Mediterranean coasts revealed high concentrations during the years 1992  2000. Since the area is free of any source of pollution, it is believed that such high concentrations of various pollution species are transported from other regions, such as Eastern or southeastern Europe. Long range transport of European air pollution to the Eastern Mediterranean region has been investigated during the episodic period 26  29 August 1998. Meso-scale Meteorological Model, MM5 was applied to forecast the hourly general circulation conditions and hourly 3 and 2 dimensional meteorological variables. Air mass backward trajectory simulations were also predicted by MM5/RIP and HYSPLIT models. Consequently, three main sectors of air mass trajectory originated from Europe were found. MM5 model outputs were used in the three-dimensional Eulerian photochemical model CAMx to simulate the concentration deposition and the long range transport of the air pollution species PSO42- and SO2. CAMx air quality model simulations have revealed a great agreement with the air mass trajectory simulations produced by HYSPLIT and RIP/MM5 models and have demonstrated that sulfate transport from central and southeastern Europe to the eastern Mediterranean has two distinguished paths. The modeling system which is used for the first time in Turkey exhibited a high performance. Keywords: Long range air pollution transport, backward trajectory, MM5, CAMx, HYSPLIT.Avrupa hava kirleticilerinin Doğu Akdeniz bölgesine taşınımı 26 – 29 Ağustos episodik periyodunda incelenmiştir. 3 ve 2 boyutlu meteorolojik değişkenlerin ve hava sirkülasyonunun öngörüsünü yapmak için Mezo-ölçekli meteorolojik model, MM5 kullanılmıştır. Hava parsellerinin yörünge simülasyonları MM5/RIP ve HYSPLIT modelleriyle tahmin edilerek Avrupa’dan kaynaklanan 3 ana yörünge kaynağı sektörü bulunmuştur. PSO42- ve SO2 gibi türlerin derişimi, birikmesi ve taşınımının simülasyonunun tahmini  üç boyutlu Eulerian CAMx modeliyle yapılmıştır. Sülfatın Avrupa’dan Doğu Akdeniz bölgesine taşınması sırasında iki ana geçidi izlediği saptanmıştır. CAMx simülasyonlarının, HYSPLIT ve MM5/RIP modelleriyle üretilen  yörünge simülasyonlarıyla büyük bir uyum sağladığı görülmüştür. Türkiye’de ilk defa kullanılan bu modelleme sistemi yüksek bir performans göstermiştir. Anahtar Kelimeler: Uzun menzilli hava kirliliği taşınımı, geriye doğru yörüngeler, MM5, CAMx, HYSPLIT

Investigation of air quality and spatial analysis using GIS approach in İstanbul

Bu çalışmada, İstanbul’da ısınma mevsimlerinde ortalama SO2 konsantrasyonları ile arazi kullanımı ve nüfus arasındaki ilişkiler Coğrafi Bilgi Sistemleri (CBS) kullanılarak araştırılmıştır. 1992-2000 periyodunda ısınma mevsimlerinde ortalama SO2 konsantrasyonlarının zamansal değişimi incelenmiş ve azalan bir trend görül-müştür. CBS ile mekansal analiz yapılarak büyük yerleşim ve iş merkezlerini kapsayan bölgelerde yüksek SO2 konsantrasyon seviyeleri belirlenmiştir. İstanbul’da 5 istasyonda (Avrupa yakasında 2; Anadolu yakasında 3) ölçülen SO2 konsantrasyonlarına ait 1995-1996 ve 1999-2000 ısınma mevsimlerindeki dağılımlar karşılaştı-rılmış ve SO2 seviyelerinde azalma görülmüştür. SO2’deki bu azalmaya rağmen yüksek konsantrasyonların daha çok Avrupa yakasında meydana geldiği belirlenmiştir. Anahtar Kelimeler: Coğrafi bilgi sistemleri (CBS), hava kirliliği, kriging.  In this study, the relationships between SO2 concentrations with land uses and population has been investigated using Geographical Information Systems. The temporal variation of SO2 concentrations in heating seasons for the period of 1992-2000 has been investigated and a decreased trend has been found. This period covers the application of fuel switching as well as natural gas usage and fuel control program by the local and central government in İstanbul. The spatial analyze showed that, higher pollution concentrations are measured in larger built-up areas and business centers which is located in the European side. Although a decrease observed on SO2 levels during the heating seasons of the compared to the periods of 1995-96 and 1999-2000, higher air pollution levels have been found in European side for both heating periods. It was found out that there was a positive correlation between population density and air pollution levels during the heating periods and the most polluted areas were the most densely populated areas of the city in each heating period. It is expected that the result of this research can be guide for urban growth and air quality management plans according to the relationship between air pollution sources and effected areas. Keywords: Air pollution, geographical information systems (GIS), kriging

The evaluation of CO2 emissions mitigation scenarios for Turkish electricity sector

This study presents the results on the simulations of the scenarios based on the CO2 emission reduction of the electricity sector in Turkey, utilising the long-range energy alternatives planning (LEAP) system model, and the mitigation costs of the scenarios. Three scenarios including baseline scenario, (scenario 1) and the two mitigation scenarios (scenario 2 and scenario 3) are employed. The scenario 1 is based on the continuation of the recent electricity generation composition. Scenario 2 is established for the evaluation of all the renewable energy potential, except solar, of Turkey while scenario 3 included all the renewable and nuclear energy. The CO2 emission intensity decreased by 20.5% and 35.6% for the scenarios 2 and 3 in 2030, respectively compared to the baseline scenario. The CO2 emission mitigation costs are found 17 $/ ton CO2 and 40$/ ton CO2 for the Scenarios 2 and 3, respectively through 2010 to 2030.Istanbul Technical University (ITU)Istanbul Technical UniversityThis study was supported by Istanbul Technical University (ITU) as part of the 'Analysis of CO2 Emission Mitigation Potential in Turkish Electricity Sector by Energy-Environment Model' project. The authors also acknowledge the significant data support from EUAS and DPT (State Planning Organisation).WOS:0003971914000022-s2.0-8501825696

Compilation of a GIS based high spatially and temporally resolved emission inventory for the greater Istanbul area

AbstractEmission inventories are a fundamental input to atmospheric chemical transport models (CTMs). As the latter become increasingly demanding, modern inventories began to provide much more information (high spatial and temporal disaggregation, more chemical compounds etc). In this study we present a computational approach, an emission processing kernel that is used to compile a high spatially and temporally resolved emission inventory for the anthropogenic sources covering the Greater Istanbul Area (GIA) for the reference year 2007. The emission processor is used to produce emissions for a 92x57km area covering the GIA with 2km grid resolution. The emission inventory has high temporal resolution, covering monthly, weekly and diurnal processing and includes CO, NOx, SOx, NH3, and chemically speciated PM10, PM2.5 and NMVOCs emissions. PM10 and PM2.5 are chemically split into organic carbon, elemental carbon, sulfates, nitrates, ammonium and other particles while NMVOCs are chemically speciated into 23 chemical compounds. The compilation process includes the use of various activity information and statistical data that were gathered from local official authorities and experts, measurements, published studies for the region or extracted from pre–existing databases. The results indicate that the road transport sector is the main contributor to the emissions in the area, whereas residential combustion (for SOx) and solvent use (for NMVOCs) are also important source categories. Industrial combustion is found out to be the main SOx emitter. The temporal calculations show that monthly distributions follow the seasonal variation for most of the pollutants with higher emissions in winter time. Diurnal calculations show that the profile fits with the rush hours due to the highest contribution of traffic emissions