A methodology for long-range prediction of air transportation

A framework and methodology for long term projection of demand for aviation fuels is presented. The approach taken includes two basic components. The first was a new technique for establishing the socio-economic environment within which the future aviation industry is embedded. The concept utilized was a definition of an overall societal objective for the very long run future. Within a framework so defined, a set of scenarios by which the future will unfold are then written. These scenarios provide the determinants of the air transport industry operations and accordingly provide an assessment of future fuel requirements. The second part was the modeling of the industry in terms of an abstracted set of variables to represent the overall industry performance on a macro scale. The model was validated by testing the desired output variables from the model with historical data over the past decades

Forecast of future aviation fuels: The model

A conceptual models of the commercial air transportation industry is developed which can be used to predict trends in economics, demand, and consumption. The methodology is based on digraph theory, which considers the interaction of variables and propagation of changes. Air transportation economics are treated by examination of major variables, their relationships, historic trends, and calculation of regression coefficients. A description of the modeling technique and a compilation of historic airline industry statistics used to determine interaction coefficients are included. Results of model validations show negligible difference between actual and projected values over the twenty-eight year period of 1959 to 1976. A limited application of the method presents forecasts of air tranportation industry demand, growth, revenue, costs, and fuel consumption to 2020 for two scenarios of future economic growth and energy consumption

Point-of-care measurement of blood lactate in children admitted with febrile illness to an African District Hospital.

BACKGROUND: Lactic acidosis is a consistent predictor of mortality owing to severe infectious disease, but its detection in low-income settings is limited to the clinical sign of "deep breathing" because of the lack of accessible technology for its measurement. We evaluated the use of a point-of-care (POC) diagnostic device for blood lactate measurement to assess the severity of illness in children admitted to a district hospital in Tanzania. METHODS: Children between the ages of 2 months and 13 years with a history of fever were enrolled in the study during a period of 1 year. A full clinical history and examination were undertaken, and blood was collected for culture, microscopy, complete blood cell count, and POC measurement of blood lactate and glucose. RESULTS: The study included 3248 children, of whom 164 (5.0%) died; 45 (27.4%) of these had raised levels of blood lactate (>5 mmol/L) but no deep breathing. Compared with mortality in children with lactate levels of ≤ 3 mmol/L, the unadjusted odds of dying were 1.6 (95% confidence interval [CI].8-3.0), 3.4 (95% CI, 1.5-7.5), and 8.9 (95% CI, 4.7-16.8) in children with blood lactate levels of 3.1-5.0, 5.1-8.0, or >8.0 mmol/L, respectively. The prevalence of raised lactate levels (>5 mmol/L) was greater in children with malaria than in children with nonmalarial febrile illness (P < .001) although the associated mortality was greater in slide-negative children. CONCLUSIONS: POC lactate measurement can contribute to the assessment of children admitted to hospital with febrile illness and can also create an opportunity for more hospitals in resource-poor settings to participate in clinical trials of interventions to reduce mortality associated with hyperlactatemia

Dimpling process in cold roll metal forming by finite element modelling and experimental validation

The dimpling process is a novel cold-roll forming process that involves dimpling of a rolled flat strip prior to the roll forming operation. This is a process undertaken to enhance the material properties and subsequent products’ structural performance while maintaining a minimum strip thickness. In order to understand the complex and interrelated nonlinear changes in contact, geometry and material properties that occur in the process, it is necessary to accurately simulate the process and validate through physical tests. In this paper, 3D non-linear finite element analysis was employed to simulate the dimpling process and mechanical testing of the subsequent dimpled sheets, in which the dimple geometry and material properties data were directly transferred from the dimpling process. Physical measurements, tensile and bending tests on dimpled sheet steel were conducted to evaluate the simulation results. Simulation of the dimpling process identified the amount of non-uniform plastic strain introduced and the manner in which this was distributed through the sheet. The plastic strain resulted in strain hardening which could correlate to the increase in the strength of the dimpled steel when compared to plain steel originating from the same coil material. A parametric study revealed that the amount of plastic strain depends upon on the process parameters such as friction and overlapping gap between the two forming rolls. The results derived from simulations of the tensile and bending tests were in good agreement with the experimental ones. The validation indicates that the finite element analysis was able to successfully simulate the dimpling process and mechanical properties of the subsequent dimpled steel products

Designing the Main Street Lending Program: Challenges and Options

The Main Street Lending Program (MSLP) was established by the Federal Reserve to provide loans to small and mid-sized firms and large below-investment-grade firms that were financially sound before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. The program, which was established under the Fed’s Section 13(3) emergency authorities, is supported by capital from the U.S. Treasury and became operational in July 2020; however, utilization has been slight. We describe the economic challenges in designing a loan support program and evaluate the MSLP program in terms of how it manages significant asymmetric information, adverse selection, poor targeting, and moral hazard problems while protecting taxpayer funds. We contrast the MSLP with other possible approaches, such as subsidies or loan guarantees. We conclude by recommending changes to the program to increase its usage and effectiveness

Hypervelocity impact testing of cables

The physics and electrical results obtained from simulated micrometeoroid testing of certain Skylab cables are presented. The test procedure, electrical circuits, test equipment, and cable types utilized are also explained

Microphysical simulations of sulfur burdens from stratospheric sulfur geoengineering

Recent microphysical studies suggest that geoengineering by continuous stratospheric injection of SO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; gas may be limited by the growth of the aerosols. We study the efficacy of SO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;, H&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;SO&lt;sub&gt;4&lt;/sub&gt; and aerosol injections on aerosol mass and optical depth using a three-dimensional general circulation model with sulfur chemistry and sectional aerosol microphysics (WACCM/CARMA). We find increasing injection rates of SO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; in a narrow band around the equator to have limited efficacy while broadening the injecting zone as well as injecting particles instead of SO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; gas increases the sulfate burden for a given injection rate, in agreement with previous work. We find that injecting H&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;SO&lt;sub&gt;4&lt;/sub&gt; gas instead of SO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; does not discernibly alter sulfate size or mass, in contrast with a previous study using a plume model with a microphysical model. However, the physics and chemistry in aircraft plumes, which are smaller than climate model grid cells, need to be more carefully considered. We also find significant perturbations to tropospheric aerosol for all injections studied, particularly in the upper troposphere and near the poles, where sulfate burden increases by up to 100 times. This enhanced burden could have implications for tropospheric radiative forcing and chemistry. These results highlight the need to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions rather than attempt to cool the planet through geoengineering, and to further study geoengineering before it can be seriously considered as a climate intervention option

Establishment of leucaena in Australia

Leucaena (Leucaena leucocephala ssp. glabrata) is a highly productive tropical perennial legume used primarily in extensive beef grazing systems across northern Australia. Its productivity provides substantial benefits to grazing businesses and economically significant areas of leucaena have been established in Queensland, with much smaller areas in both the Northern Territory and Western Australia. Specific environmental conditions (particularly soil type) and management practices are required to obtain reliable establishment and high productivity from leucaena-grass grazing systems. Significant research, development and extension have been undertaken in northern Australia, particularly in central Queensland, resulting in management packages which ensure establishment reliability and long-term productivity. However expansion into new areas can be constrained by regionally-specific establishment issues. Adaptation of known establishment and management practices together with research and development are required for leucaena-grass grazing systems in new regions

More Aeschynomene Pasture Legumes for the Tropics and Sub-Tropics

Two cultivars of Aeschynomene villosa were released in Queensland in 1995. Cultivars ‘Reid’ (previously CPI 91209) and ‘Kretschmer’ (previously CPI 93621) are both native to Mexico and are the first cultivars of A. villosa to be released as pasture legumes. They will complement the three Aeschynomene cultivars already in use in tropical and sub-tropical northern and eastern Australia, namely cultivars ‘Glenn’ and ‘Lee’ (A. americana) and ‘Bargoo’ (A. falcata). Characteristics of Reid and Kretschmer jointvetch include, early seeding perennials within high seed yields, prostrate to semi-erect growth habit, adaptation to a wide range of soil types in medium rainfall areas, tolerance of temporary waterlogging, palatability of high quality forage, responsive to added phosphorus, and tolerance of light frosts. Commercial seed will be available for sale about October, 1997. Reid and Kretschmer villose jointvetch are widely adapted high quality pasture legumes which will complement current legume cultivars and will broaden the scope for sown pasture development in sub-tropical and tropical northern Australia