The Link between the Office Market and Labour Market in Germany

The article examines the link between the office market and labour market in Germany. In a first step the number of office employees is calculated by referring to occupational labour market statistics. Using a panel analysis with data for the biggest five German metropolises it is shown that office employment is a superior predictor for explaining adjustments in prime and average rents compared to total employment and unemployment rates. Taking vacancy rates also into account, the fit of the model can be further increased. Construction has only a minor impact on prime rents. The study is supplemented with single regressions for the five cities. While adjustments in Berlin and Dusseldorf can hardly be ascribed to office employment, office rents in Frankfurt, Hamburg and Munich react strongly to changes in the labour market.office employment, rental adjustment, panel analysis

A Perfect Marriage: Child-related Pensions and Public Education

In the present paper the effects of different pay-as-you-go pension systems on fertility decisions of a representative household are examined. Thereby, the analysis focuses especially on the interplay of parental quantity and quality decisions, introduced by Becker (1960). As it will be shown, a traditional pay-as-you-go system in either case distorts decisions of parents leading to an erosion of the financial basis of the system. In contrast, the assessment of a child-related pay-as-you-go system is ambiguous. If parents are solely responsible for expenditures on the quality of children, it is inefficient, too. However, if it is combined with a device like public education, optimality can be restored.Pay-as-you-go, child-related pension, quantity and quality of children

Enhancing Semantic Bidirectionalization via Shape Bidirectionalizer Plug-ins

Matsuda et al. (2007) and Voigtlander (2009) have introduced two techniques that given a source-to-view function provide an update propagation function mapping an original source and an updated view back to an updated source, subject to standard consistency conditions. Previously, we developed a synthesis of the two techniques, based on a separation of shape and content aspects (Voigtlander et al. 2010). Here, we carry that idea further, reworking the technique of Voigtlander such that any shape bidirectionalizer (based on the work of Matsuda et al. or not) can be used as a plug-in, to good effect. We also provide a data-type-generic account, enabling wider reuse, including the use of pluggable bidirectionalization itself as a plug-in

How the West "invented" fertility restriction

We analyze the rise of the first socio-economic institution in history that limited fertility – long before the Demographic Transition. The "European Marriage Pattern" (EMP) raised the marriage age of women and ensured that many remained celibate, thereby reducing childbirths by up to one third between the 14th and 18th century. To explain the rise of EMP we build a two-sector model of agricultural production – grain and livestock. Women have a comparative advantage in the latter because plow agriculture requires physical strength. After the Black Death in 1348-50, land abundance triggered a shift towards the landintensive pastoral sector, improving female employment prospects. Because women working in animal husbandry had to remain unmarried, more farm service spelled later marriages. The resulting reduction in fertility led to a new Malthusian steady state with lower population pressure and higher wages. The model can thus help to explain the divergence in income per capita between Europe and Asia long before the Industrial Revolution. Using detailed data from England after 1290, we provide strong evidence for our mechanism. Where pastoral agriculture dominated, more women worked as servants, and marriage occurred markedly later. Overall, we estimate that pastoral farming raised female ages at first marriage by more than 4 years.Fertility, Great Divergence, Demographic Regime, Long-Run Growth

Malthusian dynamism and the rise of Europe: Make war, not love

This paper argues that Malthusian regimes are capable of sustained changes in per capita incomes. Shifting mortality and fertility schedules can lead to different steady-state income levels, with long periods of growth during the transition. Europe checked the downward pressure on wages through late marriage, which reduced fertility, and a mortality regime that combined high death rates with high incomes. We argue that both emerged as a result of the Black Death.Growth, Comparative Development, Technological Progress, Demographic Transition, Diversity, Human Capital, Malthusian Stagnation, Black Death

Why England? Demand, growth and inequality during the Industrial Revolution

Why was England first? And why Europe? We present a probabilistic model that builds on big-push models by Murphy, Shleifer and Vishny (1989), combined with hierarchical preferences. The interaction of exogenous demographic factors (in particular the English low-pressure variant of the European marriage pattern)and redistributive institutions – such as the “old Poor Law” – combined to make an Industrial Revolution more likely. Essentially, industrialization is the result of having a critical mass of consumers that is “rich enough” to afford (potentially) mass-produced goods. Our model is then calibrated to match the main characteristics of the English economy in 1750 and the observed transition until 1850. This allows us to address explicitly one of the key features of the British Industrial Revolution unearthed by economic historians over the last three decades – the slowness of productivity and output change. In our calibration, we find that the probability of Britain industrializing is 5 times larger than France’s. Contrary to the recent argument by Pomeranz, China in the 18th century had essentially no chance to industrialize at all. This difference is decomposed into a demographic and a policy component, with the former being far more important than the latter.Inequality, Industrial Revolution, growth, big push, redistribution, steam, general purpose technology

Numerical simulation of flow, H2SO4 cycle and new particle formation in the CERN CLOUD chamber

To study the effect of galactic cosmic rays on aerosols and clouds, the Cosmic Leaving OUtdoor Droplets (CLOUD) project was established. Experiments are carried out at a 26 m3 tank at CERN (Switzerland). In the experiments, the effect of ionising particle radiation on H2SO4 particle formation and growth is investigated. To evaluate the experimental configuration, the experiment was simulated using a coupled multidimensional CFD – particle model (CLOUD-FPM). In the model the coupled fields of gas/vapour species, temperature, flow velocity and particle properties were computed to investigate the tank's mixing state and mixing times. Simulation results show that the mixing state of the tank's contents largely depends on the characteristics of the mixing fans and a 1-fan configuration, as used in first experiments, may not be sufficient to ensure a homogeneously mixed chamber. To mix the tank properly, 2 fans are necessary. The 1/e response times for instantaneous changes of wall temperature and saturation ratio inside the chamber were found to be in the order of few minutes. Particle nucleation and growth was also simulated and particle number size distribution properties of the freshly nucleated particles (particle number, mean size, standard deviation of the assumed log-normal distribution) were found to be mixed over the tank's volume similar to the gas species

Persecution perpetuated: The medieval origins of anti-semitic violence in Nazi Germany

How persistent are cultural traits? This paper uses data on anti-Semitism in Germany and finds continuity at the local level over more than half a millennium. When the Black Death hit Europe in 1348-50, killing between one third and one half of the population, its cause was unknown. Many contemporaries blamed the Jews. Cities all over Germany witnessed mass killings of their Jewish population. At the same time, numerous Jewish communities were spared these horrors. We use plague pogroms as an indicator for medieval anti-Semitism. Pogroms during the Black Death are a strong and robust predictor of violence against Jews in the 1920s, and of votes for the Nazi Party. In addition, cities that saw medieval anti-Semitic violence also had higher deportation rates for Jews after 1933, were more likely to see synagogues damaged or destroyed in the Night of Broken Glass in 1938, and their inhabitants wrote more anti-Jewish letters to the editor of the Nazi newspaper Der Stürmer.anti-semitic medieval origins, pogroms, Nazi Germany, Weimar Republic, persistence of anti-semitic attitudes, long-run effects of local culture

The three horsemen of riches: Plague, war and urbanization in early modern Europe

How did Europe escape the "Iron Law of Wages?" We construct a simple Malthusian model with two sectors and multiple steady states, and use it to explain why European per capita incomes and urbanization rates increased during the period 1350-1700. Productivity growth can only explain a small fraction of the rise in output per capita. Population dynamics – changes of the birth and death schedules – were far more important determinants of steady states. We show how a major shock to population can trigger a transition to a new steady state with higher per-capita income. The Black Death was such a shock, raising wages substantially. Because of Engel's Law, demand for urban products increased, and urban centers grew in size. European cities were unhealthy, and rising urbanization pushed up aggregate death rates. This effect was reinforced by diseases spread through war, financed by higher tax revenues. In addition, rising trade also spread diseases. In this way higher wages themselves reduced population pressure. We show in a calibration exercise that our model can account for the sustained rise in European urbanization as well as permanently higher per capita incomes in 1700, without technological change. Wars contributed importantly to the "Rise of Europe", even if they had negative short-run effects. We thus trace Europe’s precocious rise to economic riches to interactions of the plague shock with the belligerent political environment and the nature of cities.Malthus to Solow, Long-run Growth, Great Divergence, Epidemics, Demographic Regime

How the West 'Invented' Fertility Restriction

Europeans restricted their fertility long before the Demographic Transition. By raising the marriage age of women and ensuring that a substantial proportion remained celibate, the "European Marriage Pattern" (EMP) reduced childbirths by up to one third between the 14th and 18th century. In a Malthusian environment, this translated into lower population pressure, raising average wages significantly, which in turn facilitated industrialization. We analyze the rise of this first socio-economic institution in history that limited fertility through delayed marriage. Our model emphasizes changes in agricultural production following the Black Death in 1348-50. The land-intensive production of pastoral products increased in relative importance. Using detailed data from England after 1290, we show that women had a comparative advantage in livestock farming. They often worked as servants in husbandry, where they remained unmarried until their mid-twenties. Where pastoral agriculture dominated, marriage occurred markedly later. Overall, we estimate that pastoral farming raised female age at first marriage by more than 4 years.