A new method for assessing judgmental distributions

For a number of statistical applications subjective estimates of some distributional parameters - or even complete densities are needed. The literature agrees that it is wise behaviour to ask only for some quantiles of the distribution; from these, the desired quantities are extracted. Quite a lot of methods have been suggested up to now; the number of quantiles they need varies from three to nine or more. Still another method is proposed here. Individuals are asked the relatively simple task of presenting the seven values that divide the total probability mass into eight equal parts. From these so-called octiles four estimates for location, dispersion, skewness and `peakedness' are derived. Moreover, these four values uniquely determine one distribution within either the Pearson or the Johnson system. Consequently, there is no need for `optimal' approximating formulae.Estimation;Bayesian Statistics;Statistical Distribution;statistics

Statutory Misinterpretations: Small v. United States Darkens the Already Murky Waters of Statutory Interpretation

Part II of this Note will examine the background of this issue by exploring the history and purpose of the Gun Control Act of 1968 and the circuit split arising over the interpretation of the words “any court” under § 922(g)(1). Part III will focus on Small v. United States in detail, including the underlying facts, procedural history, and majority and dissenting opinions. Part IV will analyze this decision and argue that the majority misused canons of statutory interpretation to reach an interpretation that is contrary to the plain meaning of the statute. The section will also discuss the majority’s “assumption about the reach of domestically oriented statutes” and explore the implications of this opinion on future legislation and cases. Part V concludes that this case is part of a larger problem of courts relying too heavily on outside sources when interpreting a statute, which causes them to stray too far from the text of the statute. It also concludes that to prevent continued misinterpretations of statutes a more consistent approach to statutory interpretation is needed with a stronger adherence to the plain meaning of the statute, less reliance on outside sources, and a disciplined application of canons of construction

Nick Schuld of Richardton: Germany, World War II

North Dakota Prisoner of War Report by Nick Schuld (1914-2003) of Richardton. Schuld was a POW of Germany during the Second World War. 21 page

Voting and violence in KwaZulu-Natal’s no-go areas: Coercive mobilisation and territorial control in post-conflict elections

Post-confl ict elections have become an important tool of international confl ict resolution over the last decades. Theoretical studies usually point out that in warto- democracy transitions, military logics of territorial control are transformed into electoral logics of peaceful political contestation. Empirical reality, however, shows that the election process is often accompanied by various forms of violence. This paper analyses post-confl ict elections in war-to-democracy transitions by comparing support structures for confl ict parties as well as their coercive mobilisation strategies in times of violent confl ict and post-confl ict elections. It does so through a single case study of KwaZulu-Natal. This South African province faced a civil war-scale political confl ict in the 80s and early 90s in which the two fi ghting parties – the African National Congress (ANC) and the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) – used large-scale violence to establish and protect no-go areas of territorial control. This study finds that in the first decade after South Africa’s miraculous transition, these spatial structures of violence and control persisted at local levels. Violent forms of mobilisation and territorial control thus seem to be able to survive even a successful transition to democracy by many years. Measures to open up the political landscape, deescalate heated-up party antagonisms and overcome geopolitical borders of support structures seem to be crucial elements for post-conflict elections that introduce a pluralist democracy beyond the voting process.African Journal on Conflict Resolution,Volume 13, Number 1, 201