The first measurement of the deflection of the vertical in longitude -- The figure of the earth in the early 19th century

During the summer of 1837 Christian Ludwig Gerling, a former student of Carl Friedrich Gau{\ss}'s, organized the world wide first determination of the deflection of the vertical in longitude. From a mobile observatory at the Frauenberg near Marburg (Hesse) he measured the astronomical longitude difference between C.F. Gau{\ss}'s observatory at G\"ottingen and F.G.B. Nicolai's observatory at Mannheim within an error of 0.4". To achieve this precision he first used a series of light signals for synchronizing the observatory clocks and, second, he very carefully corrected for the varying reaction time of the observers. By comparing these astronomical results with the geodetic--determined longitude differences he had recently measured for the triangulation of Kurhessen, he was able to extract a combined value of the deflection of the vertical in longitude of G\"ottingen and Mannheim. His results closely agree with modern vertical deflection data.Comment: 14 pages, 3 figures, 2 table

An international campaign of the 19th century to determine the solar parallax - The US Naval expedition to the southern hemisphere 1849 - 1852

In 1847 Christian Ludwig Gerling, Marburg (Germany), suggested the solar parallax to be determined by measuring the position of Venus close to its inferior conjunction, especially at the stationary points, from observatories on nearly the same meridian but widely differing in latitude. James M. Gilliss,astronomer at the newly founded U.S. Naval Observatory, enthusiastically adopted this idea and procured a grant for the young astronomical community of the United States for an expedition to Chile. There they were to observe several conjunctions of Venus and oppositions of Mars, while the accompanying measurements were to be taken at the US Naval Observatory in Washington D.C. and the Harvard College Observatory at Cambridge, USA. This expedition was supported by A. v. Humboldt, C.F. Gau{\ss}, J.F. Encke, S.C. Walker, A.D. Bache, B. Peirce and others. From 1849 to 1852 not only were astronomical, but also meteorological and magnetic observations and measurements recorded, mainly in Santa Lucia close to Santiago, Chile. By comparing these measurements with those taken simultaneously at other observatories around the world the solar parallax could be calculated, although incomplete data from the corresponding northern observatories threatened the project's success. In retrospect this expedition can be recognized as the foundation of the Chilean astronomy. The first director of the new National Astronomical Observatory of Chile was Dr. C.W. Moesta, a Hessian student of Christian Ludwig Gerling's. The exchange of data between German, American and other astronomers during this expedition was well mediated by J.G. Fl\"ugel, consul of the United States of America and representative of the Smithsonian Institution in Europe, who altogether played a major role in nurturing the relationship between the growing scientific community in the U.S. and the well established one in Europe at that time.Comment: 20 pages, 7 figure

International Stock Return Predictability Under Model Uncertainty

This paper examines return predictability when the investor is uncertain about the right state variables. A novel feature of the model averaging approach used in this paper is to account for finite-sample bias of the coefficients in the predictive regressions. Drawing on an extensive international dataset, we find that interest-rate related variables are usually among the most prominent predictive variables, whereas valuation ratios perform rather poorly. Yet, predictability of market excess returns weakens substantially, once model uncertainty is accounted for. We document notable differences in the degree of in-sample and out-of-sample predictability across different stock markets. Overall, these findings suggests that return predictability is not a uniform and a universal feature across international capital markets. --Stock Return Predictability,Bayesian Model Averaging,Model Uncertainty,International Stock Markets

Expected Inflation, Expected Stock Returns, and Money Illusion: What can we learn from Survey Expectations?

We show empirically that survey-based measures of expected inflation are significant and strong predictors of future aggregate stock returns in several industrialized countries both in-sample and out-of-sample. By empirically discriminating between competing sources of this return predictability by virtue of a comprehensive set of expectations data, we find that money illusion seems to be the driving force behind our results. Another popular hypothesis - inflation as a proxy for aggregate risk aversion - is not supported by the data.Inflation expectations, Money Illusion, Proxy hypothesis, Stock returns

Social referencing in the domestic horse

Dogs and cats use human emotional information directed to an unfamiliar situation to guide their behavior, known as social referencing. It is not clear whether other domestic species show similar socio-cognitive abilities in interacting with humans. We investigated whether horses (n = 46) use human emotional information to adjust their behavior to a novel object and whether the behavior of horses differed depending on breed type. Horses were randomly assigned to one of two groups: an experimenter positioned in the middle of a test arena directed gaze and voice towards the novel object with either (a) a positive or (b) a negative emotional expression. The duration of subjects’ position to the experimenter and the object in the arena, frequency of gazing behavior, and physical interactions (with either object or experimenter) were analyzed. Horses in the positive condition spent more time between the experimenter and object compared to horses in the negative condition, indicating less avoidance behavior towards the object. Horses in the negative condition gazed more often towards the object than horses in the positive condition, indicating increased vigilance behavior. Breed types differed in their behavior: thoroughbreds showed less human-directed behavior than warmbloods and ponies. Our results provide evidence that horses use emotional cues from humans to guide their behavior towards novel objects

Asset Pricing with a Reference Level of Consumption: New Evidence from the Cross-Section of Stock Returns

This paper presents an empirical evaluation of recently proposed asset pricing models which extend the standard preference specification by a reference level of consumption. We motivate an alternative model that accounts for the return on human capital as a determinant of the reference level. Our analysis is based on a broad cross-section of test assets which provides a level playing field for a comparison to established benchmark models. The human capital extended reference level model does a good job in explaining size and value premia. Estimated on Fama and French's size and book-to-market sorted portfolios it outperforms Lettau and Ludvigson's scaled CCAPM and delivers average pricing errors comparable to the Fama-French three-factor model. --Consumption-Based Asset Pricing,Cross-Section of Stock Returns,Reference Level

Consumption-Based Asset Pricing with a Reference Level: New Evidence from the Cross-Section of Stock Returns

This paper presents an empirical evaluation of recently proposed asset pricing models which extend the standard preference specification by a reference level of consumption. The novelty is that we use a broad cross-section of test assets, which provides a level playing field for a comparison to well-established benchmark models. We also motivate a specification that accounts for the return on human capital as a determinant of the reference level. We find that this extension does a good job in explaining the cross-sectional variation in average returns across the 25 Fama- French portfolios with pricing errors close to those of Lettau/Ludvigson's celebrated scaled factor models. --Consumption-based Asset Pricing,Cross-Section of Stock Returns,Reference Level

The Welfare Cost of Asymmetric Information: Evidence from the U.K. Annuity Market

Much of the extensive empirical literature on insurance markets has focused on whether adverse selection can be detected. Once detected, however, there has been little attempt to quantify its importance. We start by showing theoretically that the efficiency cost of adverse selection cannot be inferred from reduced form evidence of how "adversely selected" an insurance market appears to be. Instead, an explicit model of insurance contract choice is required. We develop and estimate such a model in the context of the U.K. annuity market. The model allows for private information about risk type (mortality) as well as heterogeneity in preferences over different contract options. We focus on the choice of length of guarantee among individuals who are required to buy annuities. The results suggest that asymmetric information along the guarantee margin reduces welfare relative to a first-best, symmetric information benchmark by about £127 million per year, or about 2 percent of annual premiums. We also find that government mandates, the canonical solution to adverse selection problems, do not necessarily improve on the asymmetric information equilibrium. Depending on the contract mandated, mandates could reduce welfare by as much as £107 million annually, or increase it by as much as £127 million. Since determining which mandates would be welfare improving is empirically difficult, our findings suggest that achieving welfare gains through mandatory social insurance may be harder in practice than simple theory may suggest.