Earnings Losses of Displaced Older Workers: Accounting for the Retirement Option

In this paper I estimate the magnitude of earnings losses faced by workers who are displaced when over the age of 50. This is potentially complicated by the self-selection of older individuals out of the labour force and into activities such as retirement, preventing observation of their potential earnings losses. Using data from the Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics (1993-2004), I use a Heckman selection model that accounts for individuals’ departure from the labour force following displacement. Results indicate that self-selection is an important factor to consider when studying the earnings of older workers but does not bias estimates of earnings losses due to displacement. Further, the results suggest that workers over 50 do not face larger earnings losses upon displacement than 35-49 year olds. Losses are only slightly larger than that experienced by 25-34 year olds. Consistent with the existing literature, those workers displaced over 50 with high tenure on the lost job experience the largest earnings losses.Layoffs, Wage Level, Wage Structure, Retirement, Retirement Policies

Health, Pensions, and the Retirement Decision: Evidence from Canada

Using longitudinal data from the Canadian Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics, I use an option value framework to examine the effects of health and employer provided pensions on retirement decisions. This study fills existing gaps in the literature by jointly modeling the impact of financial incentives and health on the retirement decisions of Canadians. The results indicate that both factors have substantial and significant effects on retirement, as having poor health increases the likelihood of entering retirement by up to 25 percentage points. Given the longitudinal aspect of the data, I am also able to address several identification issues discussed in the literature. The results corroborate previous evidence regarding the relative importance of attenuation and justification bias in self-reported health measures. The results also confirm U.S. and European evidence that employer-provided pensions and health are significant determinants of retirement.Retirement; Private Pensions; Health

Greener Pastures: Understanding the Impact of Retirement Incentives in Defined-benefit Pension Plans

Provisions in defined-benefit pension plans may bring down employment rates among older workers — a concern for employers, and for policymakers projecting the impact of babyboomers’ mass retirement from the labour force.pension papers, early retirement, labour-market behaviour of olders workers

Why Have the Labour Force Participation Rates of Older Men Increased Since the Mid 1990s

This paper seeks to explain the substantial increases in older men’s labour force participation rates that have been observed since the mid-1990s. Using data from the U.S. March Current Population Survey, the Canadian Labour Force Survey, and the U.K. Labour Force Survey, I investigate the hypothesis that husbands treat the leisure time of their wives as complementary to their own leisure at older ages. I exploit the cohort effects driving recent increases in older women’s participation rates to identify the effect of a wife’s participation decision on her husband’s participation decision. Given this complementarity in leisure time, a large portion of the increase in older men’s participation rates may be explained as a response to the recent increases in older women’s participation in the labour force. The methodology of Dinardo, Fortin, and Lemieux (1996) is used to decompose the changes in older married men’s participation rates, demonstrating that increases in wives’ participation in the labour force can explain roughly one quarter of the recent increase in participation in the U.S., almost one half of the recent increase in participation in Canada, and roughly one third of the recent increase in the U.K. Older men’s educational attainment is also an important factor explaining recent increases in participation, yet cannot be expected to drive further increases in participation rates. In contrast, expected increases in older wives’ participation over the next decade are expected to drive further increases in older men’s participation rates.Labour force participation; leisure complementarity

Simulated Replacement Rates for CPP Reform Options

A certain segment of the Canadian population is at risk of being ill-prepared for retirement. These people will likely not have enough pension income when they retire to maintain their current lifestyle. It sounds like a problem that calls for urgent government action. Only, these people are not underprivileged or lowincome earners. They are middle- and higher-income earners who lack an employer-provided pension, but presumably have the capacity to save for retirement on their own. Whether we see the fact that many of them do not as a problem for government to solve depends entirely on our view of the role of government. This, ultimately, is what the current discussions about reforming the Canada Pension Plan, boil down to. The trend in the incomes of the elderly is generally positive: compared to the 1970s, retirees are living far more comfortably, with incomes overall showing no obvious signs of distress. And data show that Canadians earning low incomes will be able to largely maintain their current earnings upon retirement, relying on the Canada Pension Plan and other public supports. Those Canadians earning mid-range and higher incomes who also enjoy an employer-provided pension, such as public-service workers, are also well-positioned to be able to largely maintain their working-age lifestyles after retirement. Meanwhile, there is no obvious evidence that the number of workers with employment-related pensions will decline in the future; pension coverage among young workers has been increasing, as has the proportion of workers in the public sector. Expanding the CPP — whether it is using the plan recently proposed by P.E.I., the “wedge” proposal offered by economist Michael Wolfson, or simply doubling the maximum pensionable-earnings room allowed for CPP contributions — would have the largest impact on relatively comfortable workers who are not saving adequately for retirement. In effect, it would force them to save more. But that is not without risks. On a practical level, simply increasing CPP contributions makes the investment decisions of the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board that much more liable for the retirement fate of Canadians. But it also promulgates a philosophy in which the federal government plays an ever-larger role, moving further into parts of our lives that have traditionally been considered areas of personal responsibility. That said, decisions about retirement savings are complicated and irreversible, yet critically important. There will inevitably be at least some people who make poor choices. Whether leaving relatively advantaged workers to suffer the consequences of their own investment decisions, or whether we require government intervention to protect them with an expanded CPP, hinges very much on just how paternalistic we expect our policy-makers to be

TAX POLICY TRENDS: AN EXAMINATION OF THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY OF CANADA’S PROPOSED CHILDCARE REFUNDABLE TAX CREDIT

On Aug. 15, 2021, Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau had his request to dissolve Parliament approved, triggering Canada’s 44th federal election. On Aug. 16, 2021, the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) released their full platform. In that election platform, the CPC promise to convert the Childcare Expense Deduction (CCED) into a refundable tax credit (CPC 2021, 23). In releasing that platform, the CPC have also publicly stated that they would cancel the existing signed childcare agreements that expand childcare supply and limit childcare fees (Tasker 2021). This note examines the proposed benefit schedule of the refundable tax credit and what it would mean for childcare affordability

Systementwurf eines elektromechanischen Fahrwerks für Megacitymobilität

Der integrierter Systementwurf eines elektromechanischen Fahrwerks nutzt Mechanik, Aktorik und Regelung gleichrangig bereits für Grundfunktionen und schafft so Raum für erweiterte Funktionen für Komfort, Manövrierbarkeit und modulare Antriebe zukünftiger Megacity-Mobilität. Ein integriertes Schienenfahrwerk erschließt den Transportleistungsvorteil von Mehrwegeverkehrssystemen. Der Konzeptnachweis erfolgt mittels eines Simulationsmodells anhand relevanter Fahrmanöver auf Straße und Schiene

Measurement of heat flux in multi-layer insulated helium cryostats after loss of insulating vacuum

The dimensioning of pressure relief devices (PRD) for cryogenic pressure equipment requires knowledge on the heat input at the maximum credible incident. In helium cryostats, this situation is typically defined by the loss of insulating vacuum (LIV), where the heat load is induced by desublimation and condensation of atmospheric air on the cryogenic surface. This surface is often covered with multi-layer insulation (MLI) in order to reduce the thermal radiation heat load in standard operation. During loss of insulating vacuum, the MLI represents a diffusive barrier for the air to reach the cryogenic surface, reducing the heat flux as well. Experimental reference data for the heat flux in case of LIV exist mainly for blank surfaces; only few data are published for MLI-covered helium surfaces. Therefore, the effect has been investigated in the cryogenic safety test facility PICARD at KIT. This paper presents the results of venting experiments carried out with different numbers of layers and different types of MLI