Comovements in Trading activity: A Multivariate Autoregressive Model of Time Series Count Data Using Copulas

This paper introduces the Multivariate Autoregressive Conditional Poisson model to deal with issues of discreteness, overdispersion and both auto- and cross-correlation, arising with multivariate counts. We model counts with a double Poisson and assume that conditionally on past observations the means follow a Vector Autoregression. We resort to copulas to introduce contemporaneous correlation. We advocate the use of our model as a feasible alternative to multivariate duration models and apply it to the study of sector and stock specific news related to the comovements in the number of trades per unit of time of the most important US department stores traded on the New York Stock Exchange. We show that the market leaders inside an specific sector, in terms of more sectorial information conveyed by their trades, are related to their size measured by their market capitalization.Continuousation; Factor model; Market microstructure.

Dynamic Optimal Portfolio Selection in a VaR Framework

We propose a dynamic portfolio selection model that maximizes expected returns subject to a Value-at-Risk constraint. The model allows for time varying skewness and kurtosis of portfolio distributions estimating the model parameters by weighted maximum likelihood in a increasing window setup. We determine the best daily investment recommendations in terms of percentage to borrow or lend and the optimal weights of the assets in the risky portfolio. Two empirical applications illustrate in an out-of-sample context which models are preferred from a statistical and economic point of view. We find that the APARCH(1,1) model outperforms the GARCH(1,1) model. A sensitivity analysis with respect to the distributional innovation hypothesis shows that in general the skewed-t is preferred to the normal and Student-t.Portfolio Selection; Value-at-Risk; Skewed-t distribution; Weighted Maximum Likelihood.

Investors Facing Risk: Loss Aversion and Wealth Allocation Between Risky and Risk-Free Assets

This paper studies the impact of loss aversion on decisions regarding the allocation of wealth between risky and risk-free assets. We use a Value-at-Risk portfolio model with endogenous desired risk levels that are individually determined in an extended prospect theory framework. This framework allows for the distinction between gains and losses with respect to a subjective reference point as in the original prospect theory, but also for the influence of past performance on the current perception of the risky portfolio value. We show how the portfolio evaluation frequency impacts investor decisions and attitudes when facing financial losses and analyze the role of past gains and losses in the current wealth allocation. The perceived portfolio value exhibits distinct evolutions in two frequency segments delimitated by what we consider to be the optimal evaluation horizon of one year. Our empirical results suggest that previous research relying on VaR underestimates the aversion of real individual investors to financial losses.prospect theory, loss aversion, capital allocation, Value-at-Risk, portfolio evaluation

Investors Facing Risk II: Loss Aversion and Wealth Allocation When Utility Is Derived From Consumption and Narrowly Framed Financial Investments

This paper studies the attitude of non-professional investors towards financial losses and their decisions concerning wealth allocation among consumption, risky, and risk-free financial assets. We employ a two-dimensional utility setting in which both consumption and financial wealth fluctuations generate utility. The perception of financial wealth is modelled in an extended prospect-theory framework that accounts for both the distinction between gains and losses with respect to a subjective reference point and the impact of past performance on the current perception of the risky portfolio value. The decision problem is addressed in two distinct equilibrium settings in the aggregate market with a representative investor, namely with expected and non-expected utility. Empirical estimations performed on the basis of real market data and for various parameter configurations show that both settings similarly describe the attitude towards financial losses. Yet, the recommendations regarding wealth allocation are different. Maximizing expected utility results on average in low total-wealth percentages dedicated to consumption, but supports myopic loss aversion. Non-expected utility yields more reasonable assignments to consumption but also a high preference for risky assets. In this latter setting, myopic loss aversion holds solely when financial wealth fluctuations are viewed as the main utility source and in very soft form.prospect theory, Value-at-Risk, loss aversion, expected utility, non-expected utility

Trading activity and liquidity supply in a pure limit order book market: An empirical analysis using a multivariate count data model.

In this paper we perform an empirical analysis of the trading process in a pure limit order book market, the Xetra system which operates at various European exchanges.We study how liquidity supply and demand as well as price volatility affect future trading activity and market resiliency, and discuss the results in the light of predictions implied by theoretical models of financial market microstructure. Parameter estimation and hypotheses testing is conducted using a new econometric methodology designed for the analysis of multivariate count processes.Market microstructure; Liquidity; Trading activity; Multivariate count process

Illusionary Finance and Trading Behavior

One important aspect of financial market is that there might be some traders that intentionally mislead other market participants by creating illusions in order to obtain a profit. We call this new concept illusionary finance. We present an analysis of how illusions can be created and disseminated in financial markets based on certain psychological principles that explain agents’ decisions under time pressure and polysemous signals. We develop a simple model that incorporates the illusions in the price formation process. Furthermore, using powerful simulations, we show how illusions can be incorporated, directly or indirectly, in the expected prices of the traders.Illusionary Finance; Behavioral Finance; Evolutionary Finance; Neuroeconomics

Dynamics of Foreign Currency Lending in Turkey

On June 16 2009, in what authorities called ``a surprise development'' the Turkish Government removed a provision from its existing laws that had allowed Turkish residents to borrow in foreign currency from banks operating in Turkey. The development ended a long era of foreign currency lending in Turkey at least in the sense of consumer loans. This paper studies the determinants and consequences of foreign currency lending for banks in Turkey in the run-up to this significant policy change. Our analysis uses detailed foreign and Turkish currency composition bank data for 21 commercial banks in Turkey between 2002 and 2010. We evaluate drivers of saving and lending in foreign currency(FX) in Turkey along with consequences for the banking system in particular and for the economy in general. We highlight possible risks to the Turkish banking system as a result of system's heavy exposure to both channels. In doing so, we show that the policy change was not necessarily a surprise but a cautionary step in the right direction to help keep Turkish banking system stable.Dollarization, bank performance, bank profitability, Turkish economy

Intra-Daily FX Optimal Portfolio Allocation

We design and implement optimal foreign exchange portfolio allocations. An optimal allocation maximizes the expected return subject to a Value-at-Risk (VaR) constraint. Based on intradaily data, the optimization procedure is carried out at regular time intervals. For the estimation of the conditional variance from which the VaR is computed, we use univariate and multivariate GARCH models. The result for each model is given by the best intradaily investment recommendations in terms of the optimal weights of the currencies in the risk portfolio.Optimal portfolio selection; Value-at-risk; GARCH models; Foreign exchange markets

What will the future landscape look like?

18th EISCAT symposiumSession E2: Future infrastructure & facilities (EISCAT_3D user meeting)May 29 (Mon), NIPR Auditoriu

El significado político de la familia en la institucionalización del Estado de seguridad social chileno, 1920-1930 / The political meaning of family during the Chilean Welfare State institutionalization, 1920-1930

Este artículo explora la relación entre la familia y el Estado de seguridad social chileno durante el periodo de formulación e institucionalización de este, entre las décadas de 1920 y 1930, planteando la pregunta por cómo comprometió un soporte de bienestar a las familias y cuáles fueron los modos específicos en que tal compromiso fue implementado. A través del análisis político-institucional de la articulación de prestaciones básicas en salud y previsión dirigidas a disminuir la vulnerabilidad económica de los hogares, es posible comprender cómo operó el Estado en su base social y recuperar el protagonismo político de la familia.This article examines the Chilean State’s commitment to the families' welfare, and the specific policies that it designed and implemented to achieve this goal. The analysis of the articulation of benefits in public health and pensions during the formulation and the institutionalization of the Social Security in the 1920s and 1930s, shows that there was an important gap between the legal model of family and the specific ways in which those policies were based applied. At the same time, by analyzing the relation between the state and families, it is possible to understand how the state operated at the social base, and to reassert the political relevance of the family.