Further evidence of the absence of Replica Symmetry Breaking in Random Bond Potts Models

In this short note, we present supporting evidence for the replica symmetric approach to the random bond q-state Potts models. The evidence is statistically strong enough to reject the applicability of the Parisi replica symmetry breaking scheme to this class of models. The test we use is a generalization of one formerly proposed by Dotsenko et al. and consists in measuring scaling laws of disordered-averaged moments of the spin-spin correlation functions. Numerical results, obtained via Monte Carlo simulations for several values of q, are shown to be in fair agreement with the replica symmetric values computed by using perturbative CFT for the second and third moments of the q=3 model. RSB effects, which should increase in strength with moment, are unobserved.Comment: 7 pages, some minor modifications (mainly misprints). To Appear in Europhysics Letter

Global health security: where is the data to inform health system strengthening?

[Extract] The Ebola outbreak in West Africa (2013–2016) triggered a renewed interest and sense of urgency about global health security. A surge of reports and publications ensued, examining various aspects of emerging infectious disease outbreaks. In 2016, Olivero and colleagues published a biogeographical approach mapping favourable conditions that facilitated the Ebola outbreak, in terms of environmental factors and the presence of potential host animals.1 Constructing biological vulnerability maps has value to guide preparations for future emerging infectious disease outbreaks, especially in low-income and middle-income countries. But perhaps more important is the need to develop similar ‘vulnerability maps’ to capture the ability of health systems to prevent or respond to major infectious disease challenges. Without a health system vulnerability map, or the public availability of the data to generate it, efforts to achieve global health security in relation to emerging infectious disease outbreaks will likely be limited and post hoc, rather than pre-emptive and strategic. Unfortunately, the revived interest in global health security has not been matched with commensurate action. In 2014, the G7 (Group of Seven) endorsed the Global Health Security Agenda (GHSA), a partnership of governments and international organisations with the goal of accelerating the achievement of the core disease outbreak preparedness and response capacities as required by the International Health Regulations, but progress has been limited

Performance-based incentives and community health workers' outputs, a systematic review.

ObjectiveTo review the evidence on the impact on measurable outcomes of performance-based incentives for community health workers (CHWs) in low- and middle-income countries.MethodsWe conducted a systematic review of intervention studies published before November 2020 that evaluated the impact of financial and non-financial performance-based incentives for CHWs. Outcomes included patient health indicators; quality, utilization or delivery of health-care services; and CHW motivation or satisfaction. We assessed risk of bias for all included studies using the Cochrane tool. We based our narrative synthesis on a framework for measuring the performance of CHW programmes, comprising inputs, processes, performance outputs and health outcomes.FindingsTwo reviewers screened 2811 records; we included 12 studies, 11 of which were randomized controlled trials and one a non-randomized trial. We found that non-financial, publicly displayed recognition of CHWs' efforts was effective in improved service delivery outcomes. While large financial incentives were more effective than small ones in bringing about improved performance, they often resulted in the reallocation of effort away from other, non-incentivized tasks. We found no studies that tested a combined package of financial and non-financial incentives. The rationale for the design of performance-based incentives or explanation of how incentives interacted with contextual factors were rarely reported.ConclusionFinancial performance-based incentives alone can improve CHW service delivery outcomes, but at the risk of unincentivized tasks being neglected. As calls to professionalize CHW programmes gain momentum, research that explores the interactions among different forms of incentives, context and sustainability is needed

Phenomenology of the Term Structure of Interest Rates with Pade Approximants

The classical approach in finance attempts to model the term structure of interest rates using specified stochastic processes and the no arbitrage argument. Up to now, no universally accepted theory has been obtained for the description of experimental data. We have chosen a more phenomenological approach. It is based on results obtained some twenty years ago by physicists, results which show that Pad\'e Approximants are very suitable for approximating large classes of functions in a very precise and coherent way. In this paper, we have chosen to compare Pad\'e Approximants with very low indices with the experimental densities of interest rates variations. We have shown that the data published by the Federal Reserve System in the United States are very well reproduced with two parameters only. These parameters are rather simple functions of the lag and of the maturity and are directly related to the moments of the distributions.Comment: LaTeX, 28 pages, 13 figure

While We Waited: Incidence and Predictors of Falls in Older Adults With Cataract.

PURPOSE: Strong evidence indicates an increased fall risk associated with cataract. Although cataract surgery can restore sight, lengthy wait times are common for public patients in many high-income countries. This study reports incidence and predictors of falls in older people with cataract during their surgical wait. METHODS: Data from a prospective study of falls in adults aged ≥65 years who were awaiting cataract surgery in public hospitals in Australia were analyzed. Participants underwent assessment of vision, health status, and physical function, and recalled falls in the previous 12 months. Falls were self-reported prospectively during the surgical wait. RESULTS: Of 329 participants, mean age was 75.7 years; 55.2% were female. A total of 267 falls were reported by 101 (30.7%) participants during the surgical wait (median observation time, 176 days): an incidence of 1.2 falls per person-year (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.0-1.3). Greater walking activity (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 1.06, 95% CI 1.01-1.10; P = 0.02, per additional hour/week), poorer health-related quality of life (IRR 1.12, 95% CI 1.05-1.20; P < 0.001, per 5-unit decrease), and a fall in the prior 12 months (IRR 2.48, 95% CI 1.57-3.93; P < 0.001) were associated with incident falls. No visual measure independently predicted fall risk. More than one-half (51.7%) of falls were injurious. CONCLUSIONS: We found a substantial rate of falls and fall injury in older adults with cataract who were awaiting surgery. Within this relatively homogenous cohort, measures of visual function alone inadequately predicted fall risk. Assessment of exposure to falls through physical activity frequency may prove valuable in identifying those more likely to fall during the surgical wait

While We Waited: Incidence and Predictors of Falls in Older Adults With Cataract

Purpose: Strong evidence indicates an increased fall risk associated with cataract. Although cataract surgery can restore sight, lengthy wait times are common for public patients in many high-income countries. This study reports incidence and predictors of falls in older people with cataract during their surgical wait. Methods: Data from a prospective study of falls in adults aged ≥65 years who were awaiting cataract surgery in public hospitals in Australia were analyzed. Participants underwent assessment of vision, health status, and physical function, and recalled falls in the previous 12 months. Falls were self-reported prospectively during the surgical wait. Results: Of 329 participants, mean age was 75.7 years; 55.2% were female. A total of 267 falls were reported by 101 (30.7%) participants during the surgical wait (median observation time, 176 days): an incidence of 1.2 falls per person-year (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.0–1.3). Greater walking activity (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 1.06, 95% CI 1.01–1.10; P = 0.02, per additional hour/week), poorer health-related quality of life (IRR 1.12, 95% CI 1.05–1.20; P < 0.001, per 5-unit decrease), and a fall in the prior 12 months (IRR 2.48, 95% CI 1.57–3.93; P < 0.001) were associated with incident falls. No visual measure independently predicted fall risk. More than one-half (51.7%) of falls were injurious. Conclusions: We found a substantial rate of falls and fall injury in older adults with cataract who were awaiting surgery. Within this relatively homogenous cohort, measures of visual function alone inadequately predicted fall risk. Assessment of exposure to falls through physical activity frequency may prove valuable in identifying those more likely to fall during the surgical wait

Understanding community health worker employment preferences in Malang district, Indonesia using a discrete choice experiment

BACKGROUND: Community health workers (CHWs) play a critical role in supporting health systems, and in improving accessibility to primary healthcare. In many settings CHW programmes do not have formalised employment models and face issues of high attrition and poor performance. This study aims to determine the employment preferences of CHWs in Malang district, Indonesia, to inform policy interventions. METHODS: A discrete choice experiment was conducted with 471 CHWs across 28 villages. Attributes relevant to CHW employment were identified through a multistage process including literature review, focus group discussions and expert consultation. Respondents’ choices were analysed with a mixed multinomial logit model and latent class analyses. RESULTS: Five attributes were identified: (1) supervision; (2) training; (3) monthly financial benefit; (4) recognition; and (5) employment structure. The most important influence on choice of job was a low monthly financial benefit (US$~2) (β=0.53, 95$~20) was most unappealing to respondents (β=−0.13, 95% CI=−0.23 to −0.03). Latent class analysis identified two groups of CHWs who differed in their willingness to accept either job presented and preferences over specific attributes. Preferences diverged based on respondent characteristics including experience, hours’ worked per week and income. CONCLUSION: CHWs in Malang district, Indonesia, favour a small monthly financial benefit which likely reflects the unique cultural values underpinning the programme and a desire for remuneration that is commensurate with the limited number of hours worked. CHWs also desire enhanced methods of performance feedback and greater structure around training and their rights and responsibilities. Fulfilling these conditions may become increasingly important should CHWs work longer hours

A study of the quality of cardiovascular and diabetes medicines in Malang District, Indonesia, using exposure-based sampling

BACKGROUND: The WHO has warned that substandard and falsified medicines threaten health, especially in low and middle-income countries (LMICs). However, the magnitude of that threat for many medicines in different regions is not well described, and high-quality studies remain rare. Recent reviews of studies of cardiovascular and diabetes medicine quality recorded that 15.4% of cardiovascular and 6.8% of diabetes samples failed at least one quality test. Review authors warn that study quality was mixed. Because they did not record medicine volume, no study reflected the risk posed to patients. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We investigated the quality of five medicines for cardiovascular disease and diabetes in Malang district, East Java, Indonesia. Our sample frame, based on dispensing volumes by outlet and price category, included sampling from public and private providers and pharmacies and reflected the potential risk posed to patients. The content of active ingredient was determined by high-performance liquid chromatography and compared with the labelled content. Dissolution testing was also performed. We collected a total of 204 samples: amlodipine (88); captopril (22); furosemide (21); glibenclamide (21) and simvastatin (52), comprising 83 different brands/products. All were manufactured in Indonesia, and all samples met specifications for both assay and dissolution. None was suspected of being falsified. CONCLUSIONS: While we cannot conclude that the prevalence of poor-quality medicines in Malang district is zero, our sampling method, which reflects likely exposure to specific brands and outlets, suggests that the risk to patients is very low; certainly nothing like the rates found in recent reviews of surveys in LMICs. Our study demonstrates the feasibility of sampling medicines based on likely exposure to specific products and underlines the dangers of extrapolating results across countries

Local critical behaviour at aperiodic surface extended perturbation in the Ising quantum chain

The surface critical behaviour of the semi--infinite one--dimensional quantum Ising model in a transverse field is studied in the presence of an aperiodic surface extended modulation. The perturbed couplings are distributed according to a generalized Fredholm sequence, leading to a marginal perturbation and varying surface exponents. The surface magnetic exponents are calculated exactly whereas the expression of the surface energy density exponent is conjectured from a finite--size scaling study. The system displays surface order at the bulk critical point, above a critical value of the modulation amplitude. It may be considered as a discrete realization of the Hilhorst--van Leeuwen model.Comment: 13 pages, TeX file + 6 figures, epsf neede