ACE’s Contextualization for Healthcare Workers

There is a well-established causative relationship between Adverse Childhood Experiences (ACE’s) and pathology. Despite strong supporting evidence, some healthcare workers are unaware of how deep this relationship is. I conducted an educational session surrounding ACEs targeting healthcare workers in an attempt to contextualize the relationship between ACE’s and consequent disease.https://scholarworks.uvm.edu/fmclerk/1431/thumbnail.jp

Income inequality and growth: A regime-switching approach.

This paper explores the methodology of regime-switching in the analysis of the income inequality-economic growth relationship. The underlying idea is that when some income determinant passes a certain threshold introduces a new relationship between inequality and income and/or income determinants. There are three implications of the estimated models. First, inequality decreases with economic growth when government consumption as share of GDP is ‘low’. Second, in a ‘low’ inflation environment government consumption increases inequality. Third, in countries with ‘strict’ rule of law openness to international trade and government consumption are associated with lower inequality, while financial development implies higher inequality.Kuznets curve, regime-switching, growth determinants, thresholds

Smooth Transition Regression Models in UK Stock Returns

This paper models UK stock market returns in a smooth transition regression (STR) framework. A variety of financial and macroeconomic series are employed that are assumed to influence UK stock returns, namely GDP, interest rates, inflation, money supply and US stock prices. STR models are estimated where the linearity hypothesis is strongly rejected for at least one transition variable. These non-linear models describe the in-sample movements of the stock returns series better than the corresponding linear model. Moreover, the US stock market appears to play an important role in determining the UK stock market returns regime.smooth transition regression models, linearity tests, forecasting, stock returns.

Rarefaction wave in relativistic steady magnetohydrodynamic flows

We construct and analyze a model of the relativistic steady-state magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) rarefaction that is induced when a planar symmetric flow (with one ignorable Cartesian coordinate) propagates under a steep drop of the external pressure profile. Using the method of self-similarity we derive a system of ordinary differential equations that describe the flow dynamics. In the specific limit of an initially homogeneous flow we also provide analytical results and accurate scaling laws. We consider that limit as a generalization of the previous Newtonian and hydrodynamic solutions already present in the literature. The model includes magnetic field and bulk flow speed having all components, whose role is explored with a parametric study.Comment: 12 pages, Accepted in Physics of Plasma

Rarefaction acceleration in magnetized gamma-ray burst jets

Relativistic jets associated with long/soft gamma-ray bursts are formed and initially propagate in the interior of the progenitor star. Because of the subsequent loss of their external pressure support after they cross the stellar surface, these flows can be modeled as moving around a corner. A strong steady-state rarefaction wave is formed, and the sideways expansion is accompanied by a rarefaction acceleration. We investigate the efficiency and the general characteristics of this mechanism by integrating the steady-state, special relativistic, magnetohydrodynamic equations, using a special set of partial exact solutions in planar geometry (r self-similar with respect to the "corner"). We also derive analytical approximate scalings in the ultrarelativistic cold/magnetized, and hydrodynamic limits. The mechanism is more effective in magnetized than in purely hydrodynamic flows. It substantially increases the Lorentz factor without much affecting the opening of the jet; the resulting values of their product can be much grater than unity, allowing for possible breaks in the afterglow light curves. These findings are similar to the ones from numerical simulations of axisymmetric jets by Komissarov et al and Tchekhovskoy et al, although in our approach we describe the rarefaction as a steady-state simple wave and self-consistently calculate the opening of the jet that corresponds to zero external pressure.Comment: 11 page

Regime-switching behaviour in European

This paper examines the empirical relationship between five European stock market indices and the US market in a smooth transition regression (STR) framework. Due to globalization of economies the motivation is that the New York market has exerted substantial influence on international markets in post-October 1987 period. The results show that the US market plays indeed an important role and determines stock market asymmetric behaviour in Europe, though non-linearity is not particularly strong.smooth transition regression models, linearity tests, stock returns.

Environmental Kuznets curves for carbon emissions: A critical survey

The empirical finding of an inverse U-shaped relationship between per capita income and pollution, the so-called Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC), suggests that as countries experience economic growth, environmental deterioration decelerates and thus becomes less of an issue. Focusing on the prime example of carbon emissions, the present article provides a critical review of the new econometric techniques that have questioned the baseline polynomial specification in the EKC literature. We discuss issues related to the functional form, heterogeneity, “spurious” regressions and spatial dependence to address whether and to what extent the EKC can be observed. Despite these new approaches, there is still no clear-cut evidence supporting the existence of the EKC for carbon emissions.

Magnetohydrodynamics of Gamma-Ray Burst Outflows

Using relativistic, axisymmetric, ideal MHD, we examine the outflow from a disk around a compact object, taking into account the baryonic matter, the electron-positron/photon fluid, and the large-scale electromagnetic field. Focussing on the parameter regime appropriate to gamma-ray burst outflows, we demonstrate, through exact self-similar solutions, that the thermal force (which dominates the initial acceleration) and the Lorentz force (which dominates further out and contributes most of the acceleration) can convert up to ~50% of the initial total energy into asymptotic baryon kinetic energy. We examine how baryon loading and magnetic collimation affect the structure of the flow, including the regime where emission due to internal shocks could take place.Comment: To be published in ApJ Letters. 4 pages, 1 figur

Leading indicator properties of the US corporate spreads

The focus of this paper is on the leading indicator properties of high-yield corporate spreads regarding the level of real economic activity. This is motivated by both the financial accelerator mechanism underlying business cycle fluctuations as suggested by Bernanke and Gertler (1989). We examine the out-of-sample forecast performance of the high-yield spreads regarding employment and industrial production in the US, using both a point forecast and a probability forecast exercise. Our main findings suggest the use of few factors obtained by pooling information from a number of sub sectors high-yield credit spreads. This can be justified by observing that there is a substantial gain from using a Dynamic Factor fitted to credit spreads compared to the prediction produced by benchmarks, such as an AR and ARDL models, where the exogenous regressor is either the term spread, or the aggregate high-yield spread.credit spreads, dynamic factor, forecasting