The impact of leverage on stock returns in the hospitality sector: evidence from the UK

This paper examines the relation between capital structure and abnormal returns for the UK hospitality sector by using an investment strategy based on hospitality firms’ capital structure. We find that abnormal returns are higher, 0.53 percent per annum, for medium leverage hospitality firms, and it can be increased up to 0.91 percent by investing in medium leverage and low price-to-book value firms. The findings raise an important issue for the hospitality sector as the firms in this sector are continually aiming to raise external finance to fund expansion. This is a unique situation when compared to other sectors in the economy whereby investors earn higher abnormal returns when investing in low levered firms (Muradoglu and Sivaprasad, 2012a)

Measuring the Systematic Risk of IPO’s Using Empirical Bayes Estimates in the Thinly Traded Istanbul Stock Exchange

The systematic risk of IPO’s in the thinly traded Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) are estimated using Empirical Bayes Estimators (EBE). The sectors that the firms belong to, provide the priors. Comparisons are made with OLS estimators across different estimation and forecasting periods. Two benchmark criteria are used; sum of squared residuals and sum of absolute residuals. The application requires some complicated manipulation of the theory where some inferiors of the ordinary Bayesian approach are avoided. Results show that using the EBE procedure, betas can be calculated with greater precision than OLS. This enables us to evaluate IPO’s on similar intuition with other stocks, i.e. in a portfolio context rather than in isolation.Empirical Bayes method; Beta estimation; Forecasting; Capital Asset Pricing Model; Initial public offering

Efficiency of the Turkish Stock Exchange with respect to Monetary Variables: A C

Cataloged from PDF version of article.In this study, we test the semistrong form of the efficient market hypothesis in Turkey by using the recently developed techniques in time series econometrics, namely unit roots and cointegration. The long run relationship between stock prices and inflation is investigated by assuming the possible existence of a proxy effect. Conclusions are made as to the efficiency of the Turkish Stock Exchange and its possible implications for investors. To our knowledge, this is among the pioneering studies conducted in an emerging market that uses an updated econometric methodology to allow for an analysis of long run steady state properties together with short run dynamics

Home bias persistence in foreign direct investments

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the issues related to home bias and foreign direct investments (FDIs). We study the role of physical, cultural, and institutional distances from home on FDI decisions taken by corporations to assess whether the globalization of the past two decades has reduced their influence. Using the ‘home bias’ framework from the finance literature and the gravity model from the economics literature, we utilize a large sample of both developed and emerging markets, using FDI flows of 6263 unique bilateral country pairs over a 30-year period. We find strong empirical evidence of persistent home bias in FDI outflows, and we show that not only physical distance but also cultural and institutional similarities between host and source countries remain a decisive factor in foreign corporate investment decisions. We also show that such home bias is persistent over time and is observed around the world

Effects of feedback on probabilistic forecasts of stock prices

Cataloged from PDF version of article.This paper reports the results of an experiment in stock-price forecasting that investigated the effects of feedback on various dimensions of probability forecasting accuracy. Three types of feedback were used: (1) simple outcome feedback, (2) outcome feedback presented in the task format, and (3) performance feedback in the form of an overall accuracy score in addition to detailed calibration information. While calibration improved for all the feedback groups, forecasters' skill was found to improve only for the task-formated outcome feedback and performance feedback groups (but not for the simple outcome feedback group). Finally, the forecasters in the performance feedback group also improved their mean slope and mean probability scores, an effect not observed in the other feedback groups. It is suggested that, in a dynamic environment like the stock market, probability forecasting offers distinct advantages by providing an important channel of communication between the forecasters and the users of financial information

Herding in foreign direct investment

This paper, to our knowledge, is the first to examine herding in foreign direct investment (FDI). We investigate it from two perspectives, first the number of countries investing in the host country and then the dollar volumes of those investments. Our results provide strong evidence of herding in FDI. We also show herding in the divestures of these investors. We show that herding in FDI is related to host country characteristics and governance parameters

Financial liberalisation: from segmented to integrated economies

Cataloged from PDF version of article.Capital market liberalisation transforms segmented stock markets into integrated ones. Further impact should be expected on the dynamics of the rest of the domestic economy. This study presents evidence to that effect. A significant change after liberalisation is the emergence of world returns as an influential factor on other economic fundamentals. The information content of world returns influences emerging market returns prior to capital market liberalisation and this relation continues after capital market liberalisation. What is new after liberalisation is the influence of world returns on the dynamics of the domestic economy as a whole and its relation to stock returns. © 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved

Effects of Task Format on Probabilistic Forecasting of stock prices

Cataloged from PDF version of article.This study aims to explore the differences in various dimensions of forecasting accuracy that may result from the task format used to elicit the probabilistic forecasts. In particular, we examine the effects of using multiple-interval and dichotomous formats on the performance of portfolio managers' probabilistic forecasts of stock prices. Probabilistic forecasts of these experts are compared with those provided by semi-experts comprised of other banking professionals trained in portfolio management, as well as with forecasts provided by a novice group. The results suggest that the task format used to elicit the probabilistic forecasts has a differential impact on the performance of experts, semi-experts, and novices. The implications of these findings for financial forecasting are discussed and directions for future research are given