Advances in the simulation of debris flow erosion: The case study of the Rio Gere (Italy) event of the 4th August 2017

Abstract Debris flows are natural hazards causing fatalities and damages to infrastructures every year. One of the current challenges is to improve the predictability of such events using simulation tools. In this direction, the paper aims to model debris-flow generation starting from the water component and then simulating the motion of the bulked solid-fluid mixture mass flow. The debris component is progressively increased through entrainment of the channel bed material. The simulation has been performed exploiting the tool r.avaflow, which implements a physically-based model (Pudasaini and Mergili, 2019) for the flow propagation and an empirical multi-phase model for the entrainment processes. The investigated study case occurred in the Northeastern Alps of Italy, near the town of Cortina d'Ampezzo (Veneto Region), during the summer of 2017. The debris flow was triggered by a heavy rainstorm that caused extreme surface runoff, leading to entrainment of sediment from the channel bed. The debris flow obstructed the bridge of a regional road and consequently flooded the adjacent areas. Different types of debris flow simulations are performed, testing four specific functions to compute the entrainment rate. The simulated results are then compared against field observations. The analysis considers the differences in volume and depth of entrainment and in the output hydrograph. We conclude that entrainment is correlated with the terrain slope, particularly if it is calculated on a smoothed digital elevation model, which dilutes a less significant local steepness. We calibrate a spatially distributed slope-dependent erosion coefficient that successfully reproduced the observed entrainment volumes. The outcomes highlight the great importance of simulating debris flow entrainment processes adopting a multiphase model, which resulted particularly suitable for an accurate reproduction of the investigated event. The results, corroborated by further verifications, can improve the reliability of challenging predictive simulations on debris flow erosion

Bio-Kaninchenhaltung in Deutschland – derzeitige Situation und Stand des Wissens

Biokaninchenfleisch ist ein hochwertiges Nischenprodukt, das sich vor allem für die Direktvermarktung anbietet. Allerdings findet Kaninchenhaltung auf deutschen Biobetrieben meist nur in einem Hobby- und Selbstversorgungsbereich statt. Die Haltungsbedingungen sind oft mangelhaft und entsprechen nicht den Verbandsrichtlinien für Biokaninchenhaltung. Auch die Leistungen liegen in der Praxis deutlich unter jenen, die von Experten gefordert werden. Obwohl die Nachfrage von den meisten Experten und Praktikern größer eingeschätzt wird als das Angebot, spielt die Biokaninchenhaltung derzeit in Deutschland keine große Rolle. Gründe hierfür sind vor allem das Fehlen von entsprechenden Schlachtungs- und Vermarktungsstrukturen sowie das hohe betriebliche Risiko; Kaninchen sind extrem sensibel und es kann immer wieder zu hohen Verlusten kommen. Allerdings gibt es auch einige positive Beispiele, die zeigen, dass Kaninchen unter Biobedingungen durchaus erfolgreich gehalten und vermarktet werden können. Die sehr vielfältigen, individuellen Ansätze in der Praxis bilden eine gute Grundlage für die Optimierung und Ausweitung der Biokaninchenhaltung. Aus den Erhebungen zum Stand des Wissens lassen sich außerdem zahlreiche Empfehlungen für die praktische Umsetzung von Haltung, Tiermanagement, Fütterung, Züchtung und Vermarktung ableiten. Allerdings gibt es in allen Bereichen der Biokaninchenhaltung noch offene Forschungsfragen. Ein sinnvoller nächster Schritt wäre die Umsetzung der Empfehlungen, etwa durch die Einrichtung und wissenschaftliche Begleitung einer optimierten Biokaninchenhaltung in einer wirtschaftlich relevanten Größenordnung. Diese könnten dazu dienen, weitere Optimierungsmöglichkeiten für Fütterung, Management, Haltung und Zucht zu erforschen und Wirtschaftlichkeitsdaten zu erheben. Zudem wäre dringend die Entwicklung von Richtlinien auf EU-Ebene und der Ausbau von Beratungsangeboten notwendig

Simulation of debris flows in the Central Andes based on Open Source GIS: Possibilities, limitations, and parameter sensitivity

A GIS-based model framework, designed as a raster module for the OpenSource software GRASS, was developed for simulating the mobilization and motion ofdebris flows triggered by rainfall. Designed for study areas up to few square kilometres, thetool combines deterministic and empirical model components for infiltration and surfacerunoff, detachment and sediment transport, slope stability, debris flow mobilization, andtravel distance and deposition. The model framework was applied to selected study areasalong the international road from Mendoza (Argentina) to Central Chile. The inputparameters were investigated at the local scale. The model was run for a number of rainfallscenarios and evaluated using field observations and historical archives in combinationwith meteorological data. The sensitivity of the model to a set of key parameters wastested. The major scope of the paper is to highlight the capabilities of the model—and ofthis type of models in general—as well as its limitations and possible solutions.Fil: Mergili, Martin. Vienna University of Technology; AustriaFil: Fellin, Wolfgang. Universidad de Innsbruck; AustriaFil: Moreiras, Stella Maris. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Provincia de Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales; ArgentinaFil: Stötter, Johann. Universidad de Innsbruck; Austri

Probabilistic landslide ensemble prediction systems: lessons to be learned from hydrology

Landslide forecasting and early warning has a long tradition in landslide research and is primarily carried out based on empirical and statistical approaches, e.g., landslide-triggering rainfall thresholds. In the last decade, flood forecasting started the operational mode of so-called ensemble prediction systems following the success of the use of ensembles for weather forecasting. These probabilistic approaches acknowledge the presence of unavoidable variability and uncertainty when larger areas are considered and explicitly introduce them into the model results. Now that highly detailed numerical weather predictions and high-performance computing are becoming more common, physically based landslide forecasting for larger areas is becoming feasible, and the landslide research community could benefit from the experiences that have been reported from flood forecasting using ensemble predictions. This paper reviews and summarizes concepts of ensemble prediction in hydrology and discusses how these could facilitate improved landslide forecasting. In addition, a prototype landslide forecasting system utilizing the physically based TRIGRS (Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability) model is presented to highlight how such forecasting systems could be implemented. The paper concludes with a discussion of challenges related to parameter variability and uncertainty, calibration and validation, and computational concerns.</p

Reconstruction of the 1941 GLOF process chain at Lake Palcacocha (Cordillera Blanca, Peru)

The Cordillera Blanca in Peru has been the scene of rapid deglaciation for many decades. One of numerous lakes formed in the front of the retreating glaciers is the moraine-dammed Lake Palcacocha, which drained suddenly due to an unknown cause in 1941. The resulting Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) led to dam failure and complete drainage of Lake Jircacocha downstream, and to major destruction and thousands of fatalities in the city of Huaráz at a distance of 23 km. We chose an integrated approach to revisit the 1941 event in terms of topographic reconstruction and numerical back-calculation with the GIS-based open-source mass flow/process chain simulation framework r.avaflow, which builds on an enhanced version of the Pudasaini (2012) two-phase flow model. Thereby we consider four scenarios: (A) and (AX) breach of the moraine dam of Lake Palcacocha due to retrogressive erosion, assuming two different fluid characteristics; (B) failure of the moraine dam caused by the impact of a landslide on the lake; and (C) geomechanical failure and collapse of the moraine dam. The simulations largely yield empirically adequate results with physically plausible parameters, taking the documentation of the 1941 event and previous calculations of future scenarios as reference. Most simulation scenarios indicate travel times between 36 and 70 min to reach Huaráz, accompanied with peak discharges above 10 000 m3 s−1. The results of the scenarios indicate that the most likely initiation mechanism would be retrogressive erosion, possibly triggered by a minor impact wave and/or facilitated by a weak stability condition of the moraine dam. However, the involvement of Lake Jircacocha disguises part of the signal of process initiation farther downstream. Predictive simulations of possible future events have to be based on a larger set of back-calculated GLOF process chains, taking into account the expected parameter uncertainties and appropriate strategies to deal with critical threshold effects

A strategy for GIS-based 3-D slope stability modelling over large areas

Abstract. GIS-based deterministic models may be used for landslide susceptibility mapping over large areas. However, such efforts require specific strategies to (i) keep computing time at an acceptable level, and (ii) parameterize the geotechnical data. We test and optimize the performance of the GIS-based, 3-D slope stability model r.slope.stability in terms of computing time and model results. The model was developed as a C- and Python-based raster module of the open source software GRASS GIS and considers the 3-D geometry of the sliding surface. It calculates the factor of safety (FoS) and the probability of slope failure (Pf) for a number of randomly selected potential slip surfaces, ellipsoidal or truncated in shape. Model input consists of a digital elevation model (DEM), ranges of geotechnical parameter values derived from laboratory tests, and a range of possible soil depths estimated in the field. Probability density functions are exploited to assign Pf to each ellipsoid. The model calculates for each pixel multiple values of FoS and Pf corresponding to different sliding surfaces. The minimum value of FoS and the maximum value of Pf for each pixel give an estimate of the landslide susceptibility in the study area. Optionally, r.slope.stability is able to split the study area into a defined number of tiles, allowing parallel processing of the model on the given area. Focusing on shallow landslides, we show how multi-core processing makes it possible to reduce computing times by a factor larger than 20 in the study area. We further demonstrate how the number of random slip surfaces and the sampling of parameters influence the average value of Pf and the capacity of r.slope.stability to predict the observed patterns of shallow landslides in the 89.5 km2 Collazzone area in Umbria, central Italy

Progress and challenges in glacial lake outburst flood research (2017–2021): a research community perspective

Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are among the most concerning consequences of retreating glaciers in mountain ranges worldwide. GLOFs have attracted significant attention amongst scientists and practitioners in the past 2 decades, with particular interest in the physical drivers and mechanisms of GLOF hazard and in socioeconomic and other human-related developments that affect vulnerabilities to GLOF events. This increased research focus on GLOFs is reflected in the gradually increasing number of papers published annually. This study offers an overview of recent GLOF research by analysing 594 peer-reviewed GLOF studies published between 2017 and 2021 (Web of Science and Scopus databases), reviewing the content and geographical focus as well as other characteristics of GLOF studies. This review is complemented with perspectives from the first GLOF conference (7–9 July 2021, online) where a global GLOF research community of major mountain regions gathered to discuss the current state of the art of integrated GLOF research. Therefore, representatives from 17 countries identified and elaborated trends and challenges and proposed possible ways forward to navigate future GLOF research, in four thematic areas: (i) understanding GLOFs – timing and processes; (ii) modelling GLOFs and GLOF process chains; (iii) GLOF risk management, prevention and warning; and (iv) human dimensions of GLOFs and GLOF attribution to climate change

70 years of lake evolution and glacial lake outburst floods in the Cordillera Blanca (Peru) and implications for the future

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Elsevier via the DOI in this recordData availability: Data are available on request from the corresponding author.Climate change, glacier retreat and glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are intertwined. The Cordillera Blanca in Peru has one of the world's longest GLOF records and here we assess the evolution of glacial lakes in the region between 1948 and 2017 and investigate the links to documented GLOFs. We also model future lake evolution under two climate scenarios to provide an assessment of current and future GLOF triggering potential. Our analysis shows that the number of lakes as well as the total lake area has increased during the historical period. The formation of new lakes is, however, not uniform among different lake types with bedrock-dammed lakes exhibiting the largest increase in recent decades. We argue that moraine-dammed lakes have already formed at the majority of potential locations in the Cordillera Blanca and that the next generation of lakes which are expected to form in response to glacier retreat over topographically suitable areas will be predominantly bedrock-dammed. Based on a regional GLOF inventory, we show that the peak frequency of GLOFs occurred from the late 1930s to early 1950s. While GLOFs originating from moraine-dammed lakes dominated in this period, recent GLOFs have originated from bedrock-dammed lakes. At the same time, the majority of GLOFs originated from lakes in a proglacial phase (i.e. in contact with glacier), even though the share of proglacial lakes did not exceed 12% at any time step during the analysed period. While many moraine-dammed lakes evolved into the glacier-detached evolutionary phase, bedrock-dammed lakes became a major lake dam type among proglacial lakes. Over the remainder of the 21st century, a further increase in lake area of up to 10% is anticipated, with up to 50 new bedrock dammed lakes likely to develop as glaciers retreat. There is little difference in lake development and GLOF triggering potential under climate scenarios driven by RCP 2.6 and 8.5. Based on topographic disposition, recent and future lakes do not individually appear more or less susceptible to landslide impact than lakes that already developed earlier in the 20th century. Synthesizing these findings, we forecast that bedrock-dammed lakes will become the dominant source of GLOFs in the next decades. Because such dams are inherently more stable, we expect overall lower GLOF magnitudes compared to documented GLOFs from moraine-dammed lakes.Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech RepublicCzech Academy of SciencesSwiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC)Swiss National Science FoundationRCUK-CONICY