A note on the use of quantile regression in beta convergence analysis

We discuss how to interpret conflicting results obtained by the use of quantile regression methods in growth regression tests of β-convergence hypothesis and the results obtained by nonparametric methods. We show that the assumption of linearity may cause the non-rejection of the β-convergence hypothesis by quantile regression. We also show that using a nonparametric form of quantile regression, we can reject the hypothesis of β-convergence and confirm the results of divergence and formation of convergence clubs. We illustrate the discussion by using the conflicting results on convergence found in the dataset of per-capita income of Brazilian municipalities between 1970 and 1996.

Bayesian Factor Selection in Dynamic Term Structure Models

This paper discusses Bayesian procedures for factor selection in dynamic term structure models through simulation methods based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo. The number of factors, besides influencing the fitting and prediction of observed yields, is also relevant to features such as the imposition of no-arbitrage conditions. We present a methodology for selecting the best specification in the Nelson-Siegel class of models using Reversible Jump MCMC.Dynamic Term Structure Models, Model Selection, Reversible Jump MCMC

Bayesian Factor Selection in Dynamic Term Structure Models

This paper discusses Bayesian procedures for factor selection in dynamic term structure models through simulation methods based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo. The number of factors, besides influencing the fitting and prediction of observed yields, is also relevant to features such as the imposition of no-arbitrage conditions. We present a methodology for selecting the best specification in the Nelson-Siegel class of models using Reversible Jump MCMC.Term Structure Models, Model Selection, MCMC, Nelson-Siegel

A Note On The Use Of Quantile Regression In Beta Convergence Analysis

We discuss how to interpret conflicting results obtained by the use of quantile regression methods in growth regression tests of I̊2-convergence hypothesis and the results obtained by nonparametric methods. We show that the assumption of linearity may cause the non-rejection of the I̊2-convergence hypothesis by quantile regression. We also show that using a nonparametric form of quantile regression, we can reject the hypothesis of I̊2-convergence and confirm the results of divergence and formation of convergence clubs. We illustrate the discussion by using the conflicting results on convergence found in the dataset of per-capita income of Brazilian municipalities between 1970 and 1996.352Andrade, E., Laurini, M.P., Madalozzo, R., Valls Pereira, P.V., Convergence clubs among Brazilian municipalities (2004) Economics Letters, 83 (2), pp. 179-184Andrade, E., Laurini, M.P., Madalozzo, R., Valls Pereira, P.V., Testing convergence across municipalities in Brazil using quantile regression (2003) In Proceedings of 18 Meeting of European Economic AssociationAzariadis, C., Drazen, A., Threshold externalities in economic development (1990) Quarterly Journal of Economics, 105 (2), pp. 501-526Barreto, R.A., Hughes, A.W., Under performers and over achievers: A quantile regression analysis of growth (2004) Economic Record, 80, pp. 17-35Barro, R., Economic growth in a cross-section of countries (1991) Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106 (2), pp. 407-443Bernard, A., Durlauf, S., Interpreting tests of the convergence hypothesis (1996) Journal of Econometrics, 71, pp. 161-173Bosch, R.J.Y., Ye, Y., Woodworth, G.G., A Convergent algorithm for the quantile regression with smoothing splines (1995) Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 19, pp. 613-630Durlauf, S., Johnson, P., Temple, J., Handbook of Economic Growth, chap (2005) Growth econometrics, pp. 5-41. , North-HollandFan, J., Yao, Q., (2003) Nonlinear Time Series: Nonparametric and Parametric Methods, , SpringerFan, J., Zhang, C., Zhang, J., Generalized likelihood ratio statistics and Wilks phenomenon (2001) The Annals of Statistics, 29, pp. 153-193Friedman, M., Do old fallacies ever die? (1992) Journal of Economic Literature, 30, pp. 2129-2132Hardle, W., (1990) Applied Nonparametric Regression, , Cambridge University PressKoenker, R., Basset, G., Regression quantiles (1978) Econometrica, 46, pp. 33-50Koenker, R., Galton, Edgeworth, Frisch, and prospects for quantile regression in econometrics (2000) Journal of Econometrics, 95, pp. 347-374Koenker, R., (2005) Quantile Regression, , Cambridge University PressLaurini, M.P., Andrade, E., Valls Pereira, P.V., Income convergence clubs for Brazilian Municipalities: A non-parametric analysis (2005) Applied Economics, 37 (18), pp. 2099-2118Lucas, R., On the mechanics of economic development (1988) Journal of Monetary Economics, 22 (1), pp. 3-42Mello, M., Novo, A., (2002) The new empirics of economic growth: Quantile regression estimation of growth equations, , Unpublished Working PaperMello, M., Perrelli, R., Growth equations: A quantile regression exploration (2003) The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 43 (4), pp. 643-667Miles, W., Human capital and economic growth: A quantile regression approach (2004) Applied Econometrics and International Development, 2Nelsen, R., (1999) An Introduction to Copulas, , Lectures Notes in Statistics, Springer VerlagQuah, D., Galton's fallacy and tests of convergence hypothesis (1993) Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 95 (4), pp. 427-443Quah, D., Empirics for growth and distribution: Stratificiation, polarization and convergence clubs (1997) Journal of Economic Growth, 2, pp. 27-59Romer, P., Increasing returns and long run growth (1986) Journal of Political Economy, 94 (5), pp. 1002-1037Solow, R., A contribution to the theory of economic growth (1956) Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70, pp. 65-94Swan, T., Economic growth and capital accumulation (1956) Economic Record, 32, pp. 334-36

International Multidisciplinary Artificial Gravity (IMAG) Project

This viewgraph presentation reviews the efforts of the International Multidisciplinary Artificial Gravity Project. Specifically it reviews the NASA Exploration Planning Status, NASA Exploration Roadmap, Status of Planning for the Moon, Mars Planning, Reference health maintenance scenario, and The Human Research Program