A SARIMAX coupled modelling applied to individual load curves intraday forecasting

A dynamic coupled modelling is investigated to take temperature into account in the individual energy consumption forecasting. The objective is both to avoid the inherent complexity of exhaustive SARIMAX models and to take advantage of the usual linear relation between energy consumption and temperature for thermosensitive customers. We first recall some issues related to individual load curves forecasting. Then, we propose and study the properties of a dynamic coupled modelling taking temperature into account as an exogenous contribution and its application to the intraday prediction of energy consumption. Finally, these theoretical results are illustrated on a real individual load curve. The authors discuss the relevance of such an approach and anticipate that it could form a substantial alternative to the commonly used methods for energy consumption forecasting of individual customers.Comment: 17 pages, 18 figures, 2 table

A sharp analysis on the asymptotic behavior of the Durbin-Watson statistic for the first-order autoregressive process

The purpose of this paper is to provide a sharp analysis on the asymptotic behavior of the Durbin-Watson statistic. We focus our attention on the first-order autoregressive process where the driven noise is also given by a first-order autoregressive process. We establish the almost sure convergence and the asymptotic normality for both the least squares estimator of the unknown parameter of the autoregressive process as well as for the serial correlation estimator associated to the driven noise. In addition, the almost sure rates of convergence of our estimates are also provided. It allows us to establish the almost sure convergence and the asymptotic normality for the Durbin-Watson statistic. Finally, we propose a new bilateral statistical test for residual autocorrelation

A Robbins-Monro procedure for estimation in semiparametric regression models

This paper is devoted to the parametric estimation of a shift together with the nonparametric estimation of a regression function in a semiparametric regression model. We implement a very efficient and easy to handle Robbins-Monro procedure. On the one hand, we propose a stochastic algorithm similar to that of Robbins-Monro in order to estimate the shift parameter. A preliminary evaluation of the regression function is not necessary to estimate the shift parameter. On the other hand, we make use of a recursive Nadaraya-Watson estimator for the estimation of the regression function. This kernel estimator takes into account the previous estimation of the shift parameter. We establish the almost sure convergence for both Robbins-Monro and Nadaraya--Watson estimators. The asymptotic normality of our estimates is also provided. Finally, we illustrate our semiparametric estimation procedure on simulated and real data.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/12-AOS969 the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

CIVIC PARTICIPATION-ELEMENT OF EUROPEAN DEMOCRACY

Democracy is explained by giving the power to the government, with the consent of citizens, expressing their will, directly or indirectly through voting. Promoting and respecting individual and collective rights and freedoms is the foundation of democracy. Citizen participation is remarkable on two levels in the European government: one, as a citizen of European Union member state, in which exercises the rights and freedoms, the second as a European citizen (in agreement with the Treaty of Maastricht in 1993) which has claimed rights and freedoms recognized by law. Citizens of EU Member States elect, directly or indirectly, representatives (national) in the Community institutions to represent their interests.democracy, individual liberties, individual rights, European governance, fundamentals rights, European Constitution, European Citizen

Asymptotic results for empirical measures of weighted sums of independent random variables

We prove that if a rectangular matrix with uniformly small entries and approximately orthogonal rows is applied to the independent standardized random variables with uniformly bounded third moments, then the empirical CDF of the resulting partial sums converges to the normal CDF with probability one. This implies almost sure convergence of empirical periodograms, almost sure convergence of spectra of circulant and reverse circulant matrices, and almost sure convergence of the CDF's generated from independent random variables by independent random orthogonal matrices. For special trigonometric matrices, the speed of the almost sure convergence is described by the normal approximation and by the large deviation principle

A Durbin-Watson serial correlation test for ARX processes via excited adaptive tracking

We propose a new statistical test for the residual autocorrelation in ARX adaptive tracking. The introduction of a persistent excitation in the adaptive tracking control allows us to build a bilateral statistical test based on the well-known Durbin-Watson statistic. We establish the almost sure convergence and the asymptotic normality for the Durbin-Watson statistic leading to a powerful serial correlation test. Numerical experiments illustrate the good performances of our statistical test procedure