A dynamic coupled modelling is investigated to take temperature into account
in the individual energy consumption forecasting. The objective is both to
avoid the inherent complexity of exhaustive SARIMAX models and to take
advantage of the usual linear relation between energy consumption and
temperature for thermosensitive customers. We first recall some issues related
to individual load curves forecasting. Then, we propose and study the
properties of a dynamic coupled modelling taking temperature into account as an
exogenous contribution and its application to the intraday prediction of energy
consumption. Finally, these theoretical results are illustrated on a real
individual load curve. The authors discuss the relevance of such an approach
and anticipate that it could form a substantial alternative to the commonly
used methods for energy consumption forecasting of individual customers.Comment: 17 pages, 18 figures, 2 table
