Testing for contemporary fiscal policy discretion with real time data

We propose a method for indentifying discretionary fiscal policy with real time data. The starting point is the observation that automatic stabilizers should depend on true GDP, while discretionary fiscal policy depends on the information that policy makers have in real time. We approximate the information set of policy makers with GDP data released in real time. True GDP is approximated using the last GDP release. Accordingly, we can compute a real time measurement error. Discretionary fiscal policy can be expected to react to this measurement error, whereas automatic fiscal policy will not. We apply this identification approach in order to test the central identifying assumption of Blanchard and Perotti's (2002) seminal structural VAR. According to this assumption, fiscal policy makers do not react to GDP evolutions contemporaneously in a discretionary fashion. We find that government expenditure is adjusted upward if GDP in real time is lower than true GDP. This suggests that fiscal policy makers can use short-term funds to buy goods and services in response to GDP updates. Our results therefore call the identifying assumption of Blanchard and Perotti's (2002) SVAR into question. --discretionary fiscal policy,real-time data,government spending,structural vector autoregression

What do deficits tell us about debt? Empirical evidence on creative accounting with fiscal rules in the EU

Fiscal rules, such as the excessive deficit procedure and the stability and growth pact (SGP), aim at constraining government behavior. Milesi-Ferretti (2003) develops a model in which governments circumvent such rules by reverting to creative accounting. The amount of this creative accounting depends on the reputation cost for the government and the economic cost of sticking to the rule. In this paper, we provide empirical evidence of creative accounting in the European Union. We find that the SGP rules have induced governments to use stock-flow adjustments, a form of creative accounting, to hide deficits. This tendency to substitute stock-flow adjustments for budget deficits is especially strong for the cyclical component of the deficit, as in times of recession the cost of reducing the deficit is particularly large. --Fiscal rules,stock-flow adjustments,debt-deficit adjustments,stability and growth pact,excessive deficit procedure,ESA 95

What do deficits tell us about debt? Empirical evidence on creative accounting with fiscal rules in the EU

Fiscal rules, such as the Excessive Deficit Procedure and the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP), aim at constraining government behavior. Milesi-Ferretti (2003) develops a model in which governments circumvent such rules by reverting to creative accounting. The amount of this depends on the reputation cost for the government and the economic cost of sticking to the rule. We provide empirical evidence of creative accounting in the European Union. We find that the SGP rules have induced governments to use stock-flow adjustments, a form of creative accounting, to hide deficits. The tendency to substitute stock-flow adjustments for budget deficits is especially strong for the cyclical component of the deficit, as in times of recession the cost of reducing the deficit is particularly large.Fiscal rules; stock-flow adjustments; debt-deficit adjustments; stability and growth pact; excessive deficit procedure; ESA 95

Habituelle Aborte: Leitliniengerechte Diagnostik und Therapie

Zusammenfassung: Häufigkeit: Habituelle Frühaborte ereignen sich bei etwa 1 % der fruchtbaren Paare. Ursachen und Therapie: Als weitgehend erwiesene Ursachen gelten chromosomale balancierte Translokationen, große Uterussepten, unzureichend behandelte Hypothyreosen und Diabetes-mellitus-Erkrankungen, polyzystische Ovarialsyndrome und das Antiphospolipidsyndrom (APS). Alle genannten Ursachen bedürfen definitiv einer Behandlung. Diese umfasst die genetische Beratung, die operative Korrektur eines Septums, die endokrine Einstellung einer Hypothyreose und eines Diabetes mellitus sowie die Heparin- und Acetylsalicylsäuregabe bei einem APS. Eine Vielzahl anderer Ursachen wird diskutiert. Aufgrund qualitativ unzureichender Studien konnte deren Relevanz nicht bestätigt werden. Entsprechend ist auch der Erfolg einer Therapie ungewiss. Empfehlungen: Fachgesellschaften versuchen, klare und evidenzbasierte Empfehlungen zu formulieren. Diese sind jedoch nicht einheitlich. Daher sind in Einzelfällen mehrere Empfehlungen zu berücksichtigen. Eine medizinisch und ökonomisch sinnvolle Ausweitung der Diagnostik und Therapie muss erwogen werde

East Asia, the Pacific, and Latin America

Exposición realizada por el profesor Manfred Wilhelmy en la XVI Reunión General (PECC XVI) en Seúl, el 6 de septiembre de 200