How does the interplay between resource availability, intersectoral competition and reliability affect a low-carbon power generation mix in Brazil for 2050?

Increasing penetration of solar and wind energy can reduce the reliability of power generation systems. This can be mitigated by e.g.; low-carbon dispatchable hydropower and baseload biomass power plants. However, long-term supply potential for those sources is often uncertain, and biomass can also be used for biofuel production. The purpose of this study is to assess the interplay between uncertain supply potential of biomass and hydropower, intersectoral competition and reliability on a low carbon power system for 2050, with Brazil as case study, using a soft-link between an energy model and a power system model. Hydropower acts as a balancing agent for solar and wind energy, even under lower hydropower supply potential. When less biomass is available, low carbon transportation is met more with electric cars instead of ethanol cars, leading to an increase in electric load for charging their batteries. The charging strategy determines whether peak load increases substantially; after commuting, or lowers; in off-peak hours. This shows the importance of using a soft-link between the high temporal resolution power system model to assess the reliability, and a least cost-optimization model to assess the interplay between resource availability and intersectoral competition of low-carbon power systems

BECCS as climate mitigation option in a Brazilian low carbon energy system:Estimating potential and effect of gigatonne scale CO₂ storage

Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) can lead to negative emissions, and is seen as an important option to decarbonize energy systems. Its potential decarbonization contribution depends on low-carbon resource availability, its ability to meet end-use demand and the geological storage potential to safely trap CO2. Here an energy system model is used to assess the BECCS decarbonization potential in Brazil, considering uncertainty in low-carbon biomass resources, and storage potential, injection rates and costs of CO2 storage, assessed in eight scenarios. A spatial explicit analysis is done to make improved estimates on the storage potential, injection rates, and costs for CO2 storage in the Rio Bonito saline aquifer of the Paraná basin. Although there are large differences in storage potential (12–117 Gt CO2) and costs (on average 5–15 $/t CO2), the accumulated volume of CO2 stored between 2010 and 2050 is 2.9 Gt CO2 for all scenarios, with injection rates around 240 Mt CO2 in 2050. This shows that BECCS is a cost-competitive option to decarbonize the Brazilian energy system, even under pessimistic estimates of CO2 storage potential and costs, and low biomass availability. The cheapest sink locations are selected, in the high development scenario. When CCS development is low, injection rates are the limiting factor. Locations are selected with the highest injection rates, even though sometimes more expensive. When CO2 storage is limited, total system costs increase, mainly because decarbonization of the industry and freight transport sector relies on more expensive decarbonization options such as green hydrogen.</p

The impact of land-use change emissions on the potential of bioenergy as climate change mitigation option for a Brazilian low-carbon energy system

Land-use change (LUC)-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions determine largely whether bioenergy is a suitable option for climate change mitigation. This study assesses how LUC emissions influence demand for bioenergy to mitigate GHG emissions, and how this affects the energy mix, using Brazil as a case study. A methodological framework is applied linking bioenergy supply curves, with associated costs and spatially explicit LUC emissions, to a bottom-up energy system model. Furthermore, the influence of four key determining parameters is assessed: agricultural productivity, time horizon, natural succession (NS), and the use of dynamic emission factors (EFs). Demand for new bioenergy plantations range from 0.5 to 6.7 EJ in 2050, and is avoided when its EF reaches above 15 kg CO2/GJbiomass. Dynamic EFs result in earlier and larger use of bioenergy. Static EFs attenuate all emissions evenly over time, resulting in relative high emissions around 2050 when the carbon budget is most stringent. This in contrast to dynamic EFs, having early high peaks because of clearance of natural vegetation, but relatively small long-term emissions when the carbon budget is most stringent. Exclusion of NS, in combination with spared agricultural land, results in a demand of 6.7 EJ, because of its low carbon penalty. Assuming that land is spared due to continuous yield increase (which is the reason to include NS as and EF component), bypasses the fact that yield improvements (that make those lands available) take place because of demand for bioenergy. When low-carbon biomass is in limited availability, increasing electrification is observed, leading to electric capacity increase of 62% (mainly wind and solar energy), and a 12% energy system costs increase. Inclusion of spatiotemporal explicit supply potential and LUC emissions leads to improved bioenergy deployment pathways that come closer to the real situation as the dynamic nature of LUC emissions is included

Low-ILUC-risk rapeseed biodiesel:potential and indirect GHG emission effects in Eastern Romania

Indirect land-use change (ILUC) can have a severe impact on the greenhouse gas (GHG) balance of biofuels. Mitigating ILUC risk is important to avoid additional GHG emissions compared to fossil fuels. This is possible by making surplus land available through land demand reduction and using this for low-ILUC-risk biodiesel production. For a case study in Eastern Romania, we calculated the rapeseed biodiesel potential and the GHG emissions of four measures to make surplus land available in 2020. Four scenarios varying in assumptions on productivity and sustainability in the agricultural sector show the variation in the potential of these measures. We find that using surplus land to produce low-ILUC-risk rapeseed biodiesel has a potential of 3-64 PJ, 1-28% of the projected Romanian transport diesel consumption. The main contribution to this potential comes from yield improvements in crop and livestock production. Average GHG emissions of the ILUC mitigation measures are -11 to 22 g CO2-eq MJ−1 (maximum total lifecycle emissions are 34 g CO2-eq MJ−1; 60% reduction from fossil fuel reference). This means ILUC mitigation is possible without necessarily missing the GHG emission reduction target, provided that the entire agricultural sector is sustainably intensified, going beyond a focus on biofuel production alone

Projecting socio-economic impacts of bioenergy:Current status and limitations of ex-ante quantification methods

The socio-economic effects of bio-energy are not unequivocally positive, although it is one of the main arguments for supporting its expansion. An ex-ante quantification of the impacts is necessary for transparently presenting the benefits and burdens of bioenergy before they occur, and for minimising unwanted outcomes. In this article, the status, limitations, and possibilities for improvements in ex-ante quantitative research methods for investigating socio-economic impacts of bioenergy are mapped. For this, a literature review to identify relevant indicators, analyse the latest quantitative ex-ante research methods, and to assess their ability and suitability to measure these indicators was performed. The spatial aggregation of existing analyses was specifically considered because quantitative information on different spatial scales shows the geographic distribution of the effects. From the 236 indicators of socio-economic impacts spread over twelve impact categories that were found in this review, it becomes evident that there are clear differences in the ex-ante quantification of these indicators. The review shows that some impact categories receive more attention in ex-ante quantification studies, such as project-level economic feasibility and national-level macroeconomic impacts, while other relevant indicators have not been ex-ante quantified, such as community impacts and public acceptance. Moreover, a key blind spot regarding food security impacts was identified in the aggregation level at which food security impacts are quantified, which does not match the level at which the impacts occur. The review also shows that much more can be done in terms of ex-ante quantification of these impacts. Specifically, spatial disaggregation of models and model collaboration can extend the scope of socio-economic analyses. This is demonstrated for food security impacts, which shows the potential for future household-level analysis of food security impacts on all four pillars of food security

BECCS as climate mitigation option in a Brazilian low carbon energy system: Estimating potential and effect of gigatonne scale CO2 storage

Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) can lead to negative emissions, and is seen as an important option to decarbonize energy systems. Its potential decarbonization contribution depends on low-carbon resource availability, its ability to meet end-use demand and the geological storage potential to safely trap CO2. Here an energy system model is used to assess the BECCS decarbonization potential in Brazil, considering uncertainty in low-carbon biomass resources, and storage potential, injection rates and costs of CO2 storage, assessed in eight scenarios. A spatial explicit analysis is done to make improved estimates on the storage potential, injection rates, and costs for CO2 storage in the Rio Bonito saline aquifer of the Paraná basin. Although there are large differences in storage potential (12–117 Gt CO2) and costs (on average 5–15 $/t CO2), the accumulated volume of CO2 stored between 2010 and 2050 is 2.9 Gt CO2 for all scenarios, with injection rates around 240 Mt CO2 in 2050. This shows that BECCS is a cost-competitive option to decarbonize the Brazilian energy system, even under pessimistic estimates of CO2 storage potential and costs, and low biomass availability. The cheapest sink locations are selected, in the high development scenario. When CCS development is low, injection rates are the limiting factor. Locations are selected with the highest injection rates, even though sometimes more expensive. When CO2 storage is limited, total system costs increase, mainly because decarbonization of the industry and freight transport sector relies on more expensive decarbonization options such as green hydrogen

The distribution of food security impacts of biofuels, a Ghana case study

The demand for biofuels is expected to increase significantly in the coming years. However, there are major concerns on the impact of increased biofuel production on food security. As biofuel affects food security in various ways, it is important to assess the impacts on the four pillars of food security, availability, access, utilisation and stability. The objective of this study is to ex-ante quantify impacts of biofuel production on the four pillars of food security for urban and rural households in a developing country. We illustrate this for Ghana, which proposed a 10% biodiesel and 15% ethanol mandate for 2030 and which faces food security issues. We used the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model MAGNET in combination with a household and a nutrition module to quantify 13 food security indicators. The results show that the largest food security effects of the biofuel mandate are negative impacts on food prices and import dependency. However, the projected food security impacts of the biofuel mandate in 2030 are relatively small compared to the projected food security effects of economic development in Ghana towards 2030. Our approach enables ex-ante quantification of the effects of biofuel on the four pillars of food security and the differentiation of the effects between urban and rural households. Although improvements can be made, the approach means a big step forward compared to the state-of-the-art knowledge on food security impacts of biofuel production and it could contribute to identify options to minimise negative and optimise positive food security effects

GHG Balance of Agricultural Intensification &amp; Bioenergy Production in the Orinoquia Region, Colombia

Energy crop expansion can increase land demand and generate displacement of food crops, which impacts greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions mainly through land-use change (LUC). Increased agricultural productivity could compensate for this. Our study aims to evaluate the regional combined GHG emissions of increasing agricultural yields for food crop and beef production and using the generated surplus land for biomass production to replace fossil fuels in the Orinoquia region of Colombia until 2030. The results show that surplus land for biomass production is obtained only when strong measures are applied to increase agricultural productivity. In the medium and high scenario, a land surplus of 0.6 and 2.4 Mha, respectively, could be generated. Such intensification results in up to 83% emission reduction in Orinoquia’s agricultural sector, largely coming from increasing productivity of cattle production and improving degraded pastures. Biofuel potential from the surplus land is projected at 36 to 368 PJ per year, with a low risk of causing indirect LUC, and results in GHG emission reductions of more than 100% compared to its fossil fuel equivalent. An integrated perspective of the agricultural land use enables sustainable production of both food and bioenergy

Integral analysis of environmental and economic performance of combined agricultural intensification &amp; bioenergy production in the Orinoquia region

Agricultural intensification is a key strategy to help meet increasing demand for food and bioenergy. It has the potential to reduce direct and indirect land use change (LUC) and associated environmental impacts while contributing to a favorable economic performance of the agriculture sector. We conduct an integral analysis of environmental and economic impacts of LUC from projected agricultural intensification and bioenergy production in the Orinoquia region in 2030. We compare three agricultural intensification scenarios (low, medium, high) and a reference scenario, which assumes a business-as-usual development of agricultural production. The results show that with current inefficient management or with only very little intensification between 26% and 93% of the existing natural vegetation areas will be converted to agricultural land to meet increasing food demand. This results in the loss of biodiversity by 53% and increased water consumption by 111%. In the medium and high scenarios, the intensification allows meeting increased food demand within current agricultural lands and even generating surplus land which can be used to produce bioenergy crops. This results in the reduction of biodiversity loss by 8-13% with medium and high levels of intensification compared to the situation in 2018. Also, a positive economic performance is observed, stemming primarily from intensification of cattle production and additional energy crop production. Despite increasing irrigation efficiency in more intensive production systems, the water demand for perennial crops and cattle production over the dry season increases significantly, thus sustainable management practices that target efficient water use are needed. Agricultural productivity improvements, particularly for cattle production, are crucial for reducing the pressure on natural areas from increasing demand for both food products and bioenergy. This implies targeted investments in the agricultural sector and integrated planning of land use. Our results showed that production intensification in the Orinoquia region is a mechanism that could reduce the pressure on natural land and its associated environmental and economic impacts