Global rivers warming up: impacts on cooling water use in the energy sector and freshwater ecosystems

cum laude graduation (with distinction

Water constraints on European power supply under climate change: Impacts on electricity prices

Recent warm, dry summers showed the vulnerability of the European power sector to low water availability and high river temperatures. Climate change is likely to impact electricity supply, in terms of both water availabilty for hydropower generation and cooling water usage for thermoelectric power production. Here, we show the impacts of climate change and changes in water availability and water temperature on European electricity production and prices. Using simulations of daily river flows and water temperatures under future climate (2031-2060) in power production models, we show declines in both thermoelectric and hydropower generating potential for most parts of Europe, except for the most northern countries. Based on changes in power production potentials, we assess the cost-optimal use of power plants for each European country by taking electricity import and export constraints into account. Higher wholesale prices are projected on a mean annual basis for most European countries (except for Sweden and Norway), with strongest increases for Slovenia (12-15%), Bulgaria (21-23%) and Romania (31-32% for 2031-2060), where limitations in water availability mainly affect power plants with low production costs. Considering the long design life of power plant infrastructures, short-term adaptation strategies are highly recommended to prevent undesired distributional and allocative effects

Climate change impact on the leaching of a heavy metal contamination in a small lowland catchment

The objective of this study was to assess the potential effects of climate change on the transport of pre-existing spatially-extensive trace metal contamination to a small lowland catchment in the south of the Netherlands. The area surrounding the Keersop has been contaminated with heavy metals by the atmospheric emissions of four zinc ore smelters. This heavy metal contamination, e.g. with Cd and Zn, has accumulated in the topsoil and leaches towards surface water system, especially during high groundwater levels and high discharge rates. Simulated projections of future climate predict increased precipitation in winter, less precipitation in summer, and higher air temperatures throughout the year. These climate change scenarios projected lower groundwater levels and lower discharge rates. As a result of lower groundwater levels, transport of Cd and Zn towards surface water is also projected to decrease in the future climate. These results indicate a positive effect of climate change on a limited aspect of surface water quality

Water for utilities: climate change impacts on water quality and water availability for utilities in Europe

This report provides an assessment of the consequences of changing water availability for production of drinking water, the manufacturing industry and power production in Europe, due to climate change and socio-economic developments. The report is based up on projections of demographic and socio-economic trends and climate change impacts, according to the SRES A2 and B1 scenario’s also used by IPC

Water constraints on European power supply under climate change: impacts on electricity prices

Recent warm, dry summers showed the vulnerability of the European power sector to low water availability and high river temperatures. Climate change is likely to impact electricity supply, in terms of both water availability for hydropower generation and cooling water usage for thermoelectric power production. Here, we show the impacts of climate change and changes in water availability and water temperature on European electricity production and prices. Using simulations of daily river flows and water temperatures under future climate (2031–2060) in power production models, we show declines in both thermoelectric and hydropower generating potential for most parts of Europe, except for the most northern countries. Based on changes in power production potentials, we assess the cost-optimal use of power plants for each European country by taking electricity import and export constraints into account. Higher wholesale prices are projected on a mean annual basis for most European countries (except for Sweden and Norway), with strongest increases for Slovenia (12–15%), Bulgaria (21–23%) and Romania (31–32% for 2031–2060), where limitations in water availability mainly affect power plants with low production costs. Considering the long design life of power plant infrastructures, short-term adaptation strategies are highly recommended to prevent undesired distributional and allocative effects

Energy Sector Adaptation in Response to Water Scarcity

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) have largely ignored the impacts of water scarcity on the energy sector and the related implications for climate change mitigation. However, significant water is required in the production of energy, including for thermoelectric power plant cooling, hydropower generation, irrigation for bioenergy, and the extraction and refining of liquid fuels. With a changing climate and expectations of increasing competition for water from the agricultural and municipal sectors, it is unclear whether sufficient water will be available where needed to support water-intensive energy technologies (e.g., thermoelectric generation) in the future. Thus, it is important that water use and water constraints are incorporated into IAMs to better understand energy sector adaptation to water scarcity. The MESSAGE model has recently been updated with the capability to quantify the water consumption and withdrawal requirements of the energy sector and now includes several cooling technologies for addressing water scarcity. These new capabilities have been used to quantify water consumption, water withdrawal, and thermal pollution associated with pre-existing climate change mitigation scenarios. The current study takes the next step by introducing water constraints into Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios to examine whether and how the energy sector can adapt to water scarcity. This study will provide insight into the following questions related to energy sector adaptation to water scarcity: How does the energy sector adapt to water scarcity in different regions? What are the costs associated with adaptation to water scarcity? How do adaptations to constraints on water withdrawal and consumption differ? Is climate mitigation limited under water scarcity (esp. with low deployment of wind/ solar)? How important are dry cooling and seawater cooling for addressing water scarcity and climate mitigation

Cross-sectoral conflicts for water under climate change: the need to include water quality impacts

Climate change is expected to increase pressures on water use between different sectors (e.g. agriculture, energy, industry, domestic uses) and ecosystems. While climate change impacts on water availability have been studied widely, less work has been done to assess impacts on water quality. This study proposes a modelling framework to incorporate water quality in analyses of cross-sectoral conflicts for water between human uses and ecosystems under climate change and socio-economic changes. We illustrate this with an example that shows that increasing river temperatures and declines in summer low flow under climate change are likely to increase environmental restrictions on cooling water use, with substantial reductions in power plant capacities in Europe and the US. Hence, conflicts between environmental objectives and electricity supply are expected to increase due to both changes in water availability and water quality (water temperature) under climate change. A new impact modelling framework is proposed, which integrates relations between water availability, water quality and cross-sectoral water uses, including water requirements for ecosystems. This could provide improved understanding of how climate change and socioeconomic developments will affect the ‘water-energy-food-ecosystem nexus’. Index Terms—river flow, water temperature, water quality, climate change, socio-economic developments, human water use, ecosystem

Energy Sector Adaptation in Response to Water Scarcity

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) have largely ignored the impacts of water scarcity on the energy sector and the related implications for climate change mitigation. However, significant water is required in the production of energy, including for thermoelectric power plant cooling, hydropower generation, irrigation for bioenergy, and the extraction and refining of liquid fuels. With a changing climate and expectations of increasing competition for water from the agricultural and municipal sectors, it is unclear whether sufficient water will be available where needed to support water-intensive energy technologies (e.g., thermoelectric generation) in the future. Thus, it is important that water use and water constraints are incorporated into IAMs to better understand energy sector adaptation to water scarcity. The MESSAGE model has recently been updated with the capability to quantify the water consumption and withdrawal requirements of the energy sector and now includes several cooling technologies for addressing water scarcity. These new capabilities have been used to quantify water consumption, water withdrawal, and thermal pollution associated with pre-existing climate change mitigation scenarios. The current study takes the next step by introducing water constraints into Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios to examine whether and how the energy sector can adapt to water scarcity. This study will provide insight into the following questions related to energy sector adaptation to water scarcity: How does the energy sector adapt to water scarcity in different regions? What are the costs associated with adaptation to water scarcity? How do adaptations to constraints on water withdrawal and consumption differ? Is climate mitigation limited under water scarcity (esp. with low deployment of wind/ solar)? How important are dry cooling and seawater cooling for addressing water scarcity and climate mitigation

Energy sector water use implications of a 2°C climate policy

Quantifying water implications of energy transitions is important for assessing long-term freshwater sustainability since large volumes of water are currently used throughout the energy sector. In this paper, we assess direct global energy sector water use and thermal water pollution across a broad range of energy system transformation pathways to assess water impacts of a 2 °C climate policy. A global integrated assessment model is equipped with the capabilities to account for the water impacts of technologies located throughout the energy supply chain. The model framework is applied across a broad range of 2 °C scenarios to highlight long-term water impact uncertainties over the 21st century. We find that water implications vary significantly across scenarios, and that adaptation in power plant cooling technology can considerably reduce global freshwater withdrawals and thermal pollution. Global freshwater consumption increases across all of the investigated 2 °C scenarios as a result of rapidly expanding electricity demand in developing regions and the prevalence of freshwater-cooled thermal power generation. Reducing energy demand emerges as a robust strategy for water conservation, and enables increased technological flexibility on the supply side to fulfill ambitious climate objectives. The results underscore the importance of an integrated approach when developing water, energy, and climate policy, especially in regions where rapid growth in both energy and water demands is anticipated

Adaptation Turning Points in River Restoration? The Rhine salmon case

Abstract: Bringing a sustainable population of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) back into the Rhine, after the species became extinct in the 1950s, is an important environmental ambition with efforts made both by governments and civil society. Our analysis finds a significant risk of failure of salmon reintroduction because of projected increases in water temperatures in a changing climate. This suggests a need to rethink the current salmon reintroduction ambitions or to start developing adaptive action. The paper shows that the moment at which salmon reintroduction may fail due to climate change can only be approximated because of inherent uncertainties in the interaction between salmon and its environment. The added value of the assessment presented in this paper is that it provides researchers with a set of questions that are useful from a policy perspective (by focusing on the feasibility of a concrete policy ambition under climate change). Thus, it offers opportunities to supply policy makers with practical insight in the relevance of climate change. Keywords: Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar); Rhine river; climate change; water temperature; adaptation turning point