Semi-parametric Expected Shortfall Forecasting

Intra-day sources of data have proven effective for dynamic volatility and tail risk estimation. Expected shortfall is a tail risk measure, that is now recommended by the Basel Committee, involving a conditional expectation that can be semi-parametrically estimated via an asymmetric sum of squares function. The conditional autoregressive expectile class of model, used to indirectly model expected shortfall, is generalised to incorporate information on the intra-day range. An asymmetric Gaussian density model error formulation allows a likelihood to be developed that leads to semiparametric estimation and forecasts of expectiles, and subsequently of expected shortfall. Adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling schemes are employed for estimation, while their performance is assessed via a simulation study. The proposed models compare favourably with a large range of competitors in an empirical study forecasting seven financial return series over a ten year period

Molecular characterization of low-grade glial neoplasms

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Solitary median maxillary central incisor and congenital nasal pyriform aperture stenosis combined with asymmetric crying facies and postaxial lower limb reduction defects: A unique combination of features

We report a boy with asymmetric crying facies and bilateral absence of the 5th ray of the feet. In addition, craniofacial computed tomography showed a solitary median maxillary central incisor in combination with a narrow apertura piriformis. To our knowledge this intriguing combination of congenital abnormalities has not been described befor

Genetics and pharmacogenomics of diffuse gliomas

Item does not contain fulltextRapidly evolving techniques for analysis of the genome provide new opportunities for cancer therapy. For diffuse gliomas this has resulted in molecular markers with potential for personalized therapy. Some drugs that utilize pharmacogenomics are currently being tested in clinical trials. In melanoma, lung-, breast-, gastric- and colorectal carcinoma several molecular markers are already being clinically implemented for diagnosis and treatment. These insights can serve as a background for the promise and limitations that pharmacogenomics has for diffuse gliomas. Better molecular characterization of diffuse gliomas, including analysis of the molecular underpinnings of drug efficacy in clinical trials, is urgently needed. We foresee exciting developments in the upcoming years with clinical benefit for the patients

The effect of modafinil on fatigue, cognitive functioning, and mood in primary brain tumor patients: a multicenter randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND: Fatigue, cognitive deficits, and depression are frequently reported but often undertreated symptoms that can profoundly affect daily life in patients with primary brain tumors (PBTs). To evaluate the effects of the psychostimulant modafinil on fatigue, depression, health-related quality of life (HRQOL), and cognitive functioning in PBT patients, we performed a multicenter, double-blind placebo-controlled crossover trial. METHODS: Patients randomly received either 6 weeks of treatment with modafinil (up to 400 mg/day) or 6 weeks with placebo. After a 1-week washout period, the opposite treatment was provided. Assessments took place at baseline and immediately after the first and second condition. Patients completed self-report questionnaires on fatigue (Checklist Individual Strength [CIS]), depression (Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale [CES-D]), HRQOL (Short-Form Health Survey [SF-36]), and self-perceived cognitive functioning (Medical Outcomes Study [MOS]). They also underwent comprehensive neurocognitive testing. RESULTS: In total, 37 patients participated. Relative to baseline, patients reported lower fatigue severity (CIS) and better motivation (CIS) in both the modafinil (P = .010 and P = .021, respectively) and the placebo condition (P < .001 and P = .027, respectively). The same held for physical health (SF-36 Physical Component Summary score; P = .001 and P = .008, respectively), working memory (P = .040 and P = .043), and information processing capacity (P = .036 and P = .040). No improvement in depressive symptoms was found in either condition. CONCLUSIONS: Modafinil did not exceed the effects of placebo with respect to symptom management. Patient accrual was slow, and relatively many patients dropped out during the trial, due mostly to side effects. Other, preferably nonpharmacologic intervention studies should be considered to improve symptom management of PBT patients

Landscape of chromosomal copy number aberrations in gangliogliomas and dysembryoplastic neuroepithelial tumours

Item does not contain fulltextAIM: Gangliogliomas (GGs) and dysembryoplastic neuroepithelial tumours (DNTs) represent the most common histological entities within the spectrum of glioneuronal tumours (GNTs). The wide variability of morphological features complicates histological classification, including discrimination from prognostically distinct diffuse low-grade astrocytomas (AIIs). This study was performed to increase our understanding of these tumours. METHODS: We studied chromosomal copy number aberrations (CNAs) by genome-wide sequencing in a large cohort of GNTs and linked these to comprehensive histological analysis and clinical characteristics. One hundred fourteen GNTs were studied: 50 GGs and 64 DNTs. Also, a data set of CNAs from 38 diffuse AIIs was included. RESULTS: The most frequent CNAs in both GGs and DNTs were gains at chromosomes 5 and 7, often concurrent, and gain at chromosome 6. None of the CNAs was linked to histological subtype, immunohistochemical features or to clinical characteristics. Comparison of AIIs and diffuse GNTs revealed that gain at whole chromosome 5 is only observed in GNTs. CNA patterns indicative of chromothripsis were detected in three GNTs. CONCLUSION: We conclude that GNTs with diverse morphologies share molecular features, and our findings support the need to improve classification and differential diagnosis of tumour entities within the spectrum of GNTs, as well as their distinction from other gliomas

Spatial and temporal evolution of distal 10q deletion, a prognostically unfavorable event in diffuse low-grade gliomas

Contains fulltext : 136086.pdf (publisher's version ) (Open Access)BackgroundThe disease course of patients with diffuse low-grade glioma is notoriously unpredictable. Temporal and spatially distinct samples may provide insight into the evolution of clinically relevant copy number aberrations (CNAs). The purpose of this study is to identify CNAs that are indicative of aggressive tumor behaviour and can thereby complement the prognostically favorable 1p/19q co-deletion.ResultsGenome-wide, 50 base pair single-end, sequencing was performed to detect CNAs in a clinically well-characterized cohort of 98 formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded low-grade gliomas. CNAs are correlated with overall survival as an endpoint. Seventy-five additional samples from spatially distinct regions and paired recurrent tumors of the discovery cohort were analysed to interrogate the intratumoral heterogeneity and spatial evolution. Loss of 10q25.2-qter is a frequent subclonal event and significantly correlates with an unfavorable prognosis. A significant correlation is furthermore observed in a validation set of 126 and confirmation set of 184 patients. Loss of 10q25.2-qter arises in a longitudinal manner in paired recurrent tumor specimens, whereas the prognostically favorable 1p/ 19q co-deletion is the only CNA that is stable across spatial regions and recurrent tumors.ConclusionsCNAs in low-grade gliomas display extensive intratumoral heterogeneity. Distal loss of 10q is a late onset event and a marker for reduced overall survival in low-grade glioma patients. Intratumoral heterogeneity and higher frequencies of distal 10q loss in recurrences suggest this event is involved in outgrowth to the recurrent tumor

Long-term wellbeing and neurocognitive functioning of diffuse low-grade glioma patients and their caregivers: A longitudinal study spanning two decades

Background While patients with diffuse low-grade glioma (LGG) often survive for years, there is a risk of tumor progression which may impact patients' long-term health-related quality of life (HRQOL) and neurocognitive functioning (NCF). We present a follow-up of LGG patients and their informal caregivers (T3) who took part in our previous HRQOL investigations (T1, M = 7 and T2 M = 13 years after diagnosis). Methods Participants completed HRQOL (short form-36 health survey [SF-36]; EORTC-BN20), fatigue (Checklist Individual Strength [CIS]), and depression (Center for Epidemiological Studies-Depression [CES-D]) questionnaires and underwent NCF assessments. T3 scores were compared with matched controls. Changes over time (T1-T2-T3) on group and participant level were assessed. Where available, histology of the initial tumor was revised and immunohistochemical staining for IDH1 R132H mutant protein was performed. Results Thirty patients and nineteen caregivers participated. Of N = 11 with tissue available, 3 patients had confirmed diffuse LGG. At T3, patients (M = 26 years after diagnosis) had HRQOL and NCF similar to, or better than controls, yet 23.3% and 53.3% scored above the cut-off for depression (>= 16 CES-D) and fatigue (>= 35 CIS), respectively. Caregivers' HRQOL was similar to controls but reported high rates of fatigue (63.2%). Over time, patients' mental health improved (P < .05). Minimal detectable change in HRQOL over time was observed in individual patients (30% improvement; 23.3% decline; 20% both improvement and decline) with 23.3% remaining stable. NCF remained stable or improved in 82.8% of patients. Conclusions While HRQOL and NCF do not appear greatly impacted during long-term survivorship in LGG, depressive symptoms and fatigue are persistent.Neurolog