Progression From Paroxysmal to Persistent Atrial Fibrillation. Clinical Correlates and Prognosis

Objectives: We investigated clinical correlates of atrial fibrillation (AF) progression and evaluated the prognosis of patients demonstrating AF progression in a large population. Background: Progression of paroxysmal AF to more sustained forms is frequently seen. However, not all patients will progress to persistent AF. Methods: We included 1,219 patients with paroxysmal AF who participated in the Euro Heart Survey on AF and had a known rhythm status at follow-up. Patients who experienced AF progression after 1 year of follow-up were identified. Results: Progression of AF occurred in 178 (15%) patients. Multivariate analysis showed that heart failure, age, previous transient ischemic attack or stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and hypertension were the only independent predictors of AF progression. Using the regression coefficient as a benchmark, we calculated the HATCH score. Nearly 50% of the patients with a HATCH score >5 progressed to persistent AF compared with only 6% of the patients with a HATCH score of 0. During follow-up, patients with AF progression were more often admitted to the hospital and had more major adverse cardiovascular events. Conclusions: A substantial number of patients progress to sustained AF within 1 year. The clinical outcome of these patients regarding hospital admissions and major adverse cardiovascular events was worse compared with patients demonstrating no AF progression. Factors known to cause atrial structural remodeling (age and underlying heart disease) were independent predictors of AF progression. The HATCH score may help to identify patients who are likely to progress to sustained forms of AF in the near future. \ua9 2010 American College of Cardiology Foundation

Effect of Systemic Hypertension With Versus Without Left Ventricular Hypertrophy on the Progression of Atrial Fibrillation (from the Euro Heart Survey).

Hypertension is a risk factor for both progression of atrial fibrillation (AF) and development of AF-related complications, that is major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCE). It is unknown whether left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) as a consequence of hypertension is also a risk factor for both these end points. We aimed to assess this in low-risk AF patients, also assessing gender-related differences. We included 799 patients from the Euro Heart Survey with nonvalvular AF and a baseline echocardiogram. Patients with and without hypertension were included. End points after 1 year were occurrence of AF progression, that is paroxysmal AF becoming persistent and/or permanent AF, and MACCE. Echocardiographic LVH was present in 33% of 379 hypertensive patients. AF progression after 1 year occurred in 10.2% of 373 patients with rhythm follow-up. In hypertensive patients with LVH, AF progression occurred more frequently as compared with hypertensive patients without LVH (23.3% vs 8.8%, p = 0.011). In hypertensive AF patients, LVH was the most important multivariably adjusted determinant of AF progression on multivariable logistic regression (odds ratio 4.84, 95% confidence interval 1.70 to 13.78, p = 0.003). This effect was only seen in male patients (27.5% vs 5.8%, p = 0.002), while in female hypertensive patients, no differences were found in AF progression rates regarding the presence or absence of LVH (15.2% vs 15.0%, p = 0.999). No differences were seen in MACCE for hypertensive patients with and without LVH. In conclusion, in men with hypertension, LVH is associated with AF progression. This association seems to be absent in hypertensive women

Complex systems and the technology of variability analysis

Characteristic patterns of variation over time, namely rhythms, represent a defining feature of complex systems, one that is synonymous with life. Despite the intrinsic dynamic, interdependent and nonlinear relationships of their parts, complex biological systems exhibit robust systemic stability. Applied to critical care, it is the systemic properties of the host response to a physiological insult that manifest as health or illness and determine outcome in our patients. Variability analysis provides a novel technology with which to evaluate the overall properties of a complex system. This review highlights the means by which we scientifically measure variation, including analyses of overall variation (time domain analysis, frequency distribution, spectral power), frequency contribution (spectral analysis), scale invariant (fractal) behaviour (detrended fluctuation and power law analysis) and regularity (approximate and multiscale entropy). Each technique is presented with a definition, interpretation, clinical application, advantages, limitations and summary of its calculation. The ubiquitous association between altered variability and illness is highlighted, followed by an analysis of how variability analysis may significantly improve prognostication of severity of illness and guide therapeutic intervention in critically ill patients

Reduced costs with bisoprolol treatment for heart failure - An economic analysis of the second Cardiac Insufficiency Bisoprolol Study (CIBIS-II)

Background Beta-blockers, used as an adjunctive to diuretics, digoxin and angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors, improve survival in chronic heart failure. We report a prospectively planned economic analysis of the cost of adjunctive beta-blocker therapy in the second Cardiac Insufficiency BIsoprolol Study (CIBIS II). Methods Resource utilization data (drug therapy, number of hospital admissions, length of hospital stay, ward type) were collected prospectively in all patients in CIBIS . These data were used to determine the additional direct costs incurred, and savings made, with bisoprolol therapy. As well as the cost of the drug, additional costs related to bisoprolol therapy were added to cover the supervision of treatment initiation and titration (four outpatient clinic/office visits). Per them (hospital bed day) costings were carried out for France, Germany and the U.K. Diagnosis related group costings were performed for France and the U.K. Our analyses took the perspective of a third party payer in France and Germany and the National Health Service in the U.K. Results Overall, fewer patients were hospitalized in the bisoprolol group, there were fewer hospital admissions perpatient hospitalized, fewer hospital admissions overall, fewer days spent in hospital and fewer days spent in the most expensive type of ward. As a consequence the cost of care in the bisoprolol group was 5-10% less in all three countries, in the per them analysis, even taking into account the cost of bisoprolol and the extra initiation/up-titration visits. The cost per patient treated in the placebo and bisoprolol groups was FF35 009 vs FF31 762 in France, DM11 563 vs DM10 784 in Germany and pound 4987 vs pound 4722 in the U.K. The diagnosis related group analysis gave similar results. Interpretation Not only did bisoprolol increase survival and reduce hospital admissions in CIBIS II, it also cut the cost of care in so doing. This `win-win' situation of positive health benefits associated with cost savings is Favourable from the point of view of both the patient and health care systems. These findings add further support for the use of beta-blockers in chronic heart failure

Determinants of prognosis in symptomatic ventricular tachycardia or ventricular fibrillation late after myocardial infarction. The Dutch Ventricular Tachycardia Study Group of the Interuniversity Cardiology Institute of The Netherlands

In a multicenter study, 390 patients with sustained symptomatic ventricular tachycardia or ventricular fibrillation late after acute myocardial infarction were prospectively followed up to assess determinants of mortality and recurrence of arrhythmic events. Patients were given standard antiarrhythmic treatment, which consisted primarily of drug therapy. During a mean follow-up period of 1.9 years, 133 patients (34%) died; arrhythmic events and heart failure were the most common cause of death (41 patients [11%] died suddenly, 31 [8%] died because of recurrent ventricular tachycardia or ventricular fibrillation and 23 [6%] died of heart failure). One hundred ninety-two patients (49%) had at least one recurrent arrhythmic event; 85% of first recurrent arrhythmic events were nonfatal. Multivariate analysis of data from patients who developed the arrhythmia less than 6 weeks after infarction identified five variables as independent determinants of total mortality: 1) age greater than 70 years (risk ratio 4.5); 2) Killip class III or IV in the subacute phase of infarction (risk ratio 3.5); 3) cardiac arrest during the index arrhythmia (risk ratio 1.7); 4) anterior infarction (risk ratio 2.2); and 5) multiple previous infarctions (risk ratio 1.6). Multivariate analysis of data from patients developing the arrhythmia greater than 6 weeks after infarction identified four variables as independently predictive of total mortality: 1) Q wave infarction (risk ratio 2.1); 2) cardiac arrest during the index arrhythmia (risk ratio 1.7); 3) Killip class III or IV in the subacute phase of infarction (risk ratio 1.7); and 4) multiple previous infarctions (risk ratio 1.4). The results of the two multivariate analyses were used in a model for prediction of mortality at 1 year. The average predicted mortality rate varied considerably according to the model: for 243 patients (62%) with the lowest risk, it was 13%, corresponding to an observed mortality rate of 12%; for 92 patients (24%) with intermediate risk, it was 27%, corresponding to an observed rate of 28%; for 55 patients (14%) with the highest risk, it was 64%, corresponding to an observed rate of 54%. This study shows that patients with symptomatic ventricular tachycardia or ventricular fibrillation late after myocardial infarction who are given standard antiarrhythmic treatment have a high mortality rate. The predictive model presented identifies patients at low, intermediate and high risk of death and can be of help in designing the appropriate diagnostic and therapeutic strategy for the individual patien

A novel user-friendly score (HAS-BLED) to assess 1-year risk of major bleeding in patients with atrial fibrillation: The euro heart survey

Objective: Despite extensive use of oral anticoagulation (OAC) in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and the increased bleeding risk associated with such OAC use, no handy quantification tool for assessing this risk exists. We aimed to develop a practical risk score to estimate the 1-year risk for major bleeding (intracranial, hospitalization, hemoglobin decrease >2 g/L, and/or transfusion) in a cohort of real-world patients with AF. Methods: Based on 3,978 patients in the Euro Heart Survey on AF with complete follow-up, all univariate bleeding risk factors in this cohort were used in a multivariate analysis along with historical bleeding risk factors. A new bleeding risk score termed HAS-BLED (Hypertension, Abnormal renal/liver function, Stroke, Bleeding history or predisposition, Labile international normalized ratio, Elderly (> 65 years), Drugs/alcohol concomitantly) was calculated, incorporating risk factors from the derivation cohort. Results: Fifty-three (1.5%) major bleeds occurred during 1-year follow-up. The annual bleeding rate increased with increasing risk factors. The predictive accuracy in the overall population using significant risk factors in the derivation cohort (C statistic 0.72) was consistent when applied in several subgroups. Application of the new bleeding risk score (HAS-BLED) gave similar C statistics except where patients were receiving antiplatelet agents alone or no antithrombotic therapy, with C statistics of 0.91 and 0.85, respectively. Conclusion: This simple, novel bleeding risk score (HAS-BLED) provides a practical tool to assess the individual bleeding risk of real-world patients with AF, potentially supporting clinical decision making regarding antithrombotic therapy in patients with AF. © 2010 American College of Chest Physicians

The prevalence of abnormal glucose regulation in patients with coronary artery disease across Europe: The Euro Heart Survey on diabetes and the heart

Aim The objective behind the Euro Heart Survey on diabetes and the heart was to study the prevalence of abnormal glucose regulation in adult patients with coronary artery disease (CAD). Methods and results The survey engaged 110 centres in 25 countries recruiting 4196 patients referred to a cardiologist due to CAD out of whom 2107 were admitted on an acute basis and 2854 had an elective consultation. Patient data were collected via a web-based case record form. An oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) was used for the characterisation of the glucose metabolism. Thirty-one per cent of the patients had diabetes. An OGTT was performed on the 1920 patients without known diabetes, of whom 923 had acute and 997 had a stable manifestation of CAD, respectively. In patients with acute CAD, 36% had impaired glucose regulation and 22% newly detected diabetes. In the stable group these proportions were 37% and 14%. Conclusion This survey demonstrates that normal glucose regulation is less common than abnormal glucose regulation in patients with CAD. OGTT easily discloses the glucometabolic state and should be a routine procedure. The knowledge of glucometabolic state among these patients should influence their future management because it has great potential to improve the outcome

Gender-related differences in presentation, treatment, and outcome of patients with atrial fibrillation in Europe - A report from the Euro Heart Survey on atrial fibrillation

Objectives This study sought to investigate gender-related differences in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) in Europe. Background Gender-related differences may play a significant role in AF. Methods We analyzed the data of 5,333 patients (42% female) enrolled in the Euro Heart Survey on Atrial Fibrillation. Results Compared with men, the women were older, had a lower quality of life (QoL), had more comorbidities, more often had heart failure (HF) with preserved left ventricular systolic function (18% vs. 7%, p < 0.001), and less often had HF with systolic dysfunction (17% vs. 26%, p < 0.001). Among patients with typical AF symptoms (56% of women, 49% of men), there was no gender-related difference in the choice of rate or rhythm control. Among patients with atypical or no symptoms (44% of women, 51% of men), women less frequently underwent rhythm control (39% vs. 51%, p < 0.001) than did men. Women underwent less electrical cardioversion (22% vs. 28%, p < 0.001). Prescription of oral anticoagulants was identical (65%) in both genders. One-year outcome was similar except that women had a higher chance for stroke (odds ratio 1.83 in multivariable regression analysis, p = 0.019). Conclusions Women with AF had more comorbidities, more HF with preserved systolic function, and a lower QoL than men. In the large group with atypical or no symptoms, women were treated appropriately more conservatively with less rhythm control than men. Women had a higher chance for stroke. Long-term QoL changes and other morbidities and mortality were similar