The effects of institutional and technological change and business cycle fluctiations on seasonal patterns in quarterly industrial production series

Changes in the seasonal patterns of macroeconomic time series may be due to the effects of business cycle fluctuations or to technological and institutional change or both. We examine the relative importance of these two sources of change in seasonality for industrial production series of the G7 countries. We find compelling evidence that the effects of gradual institutional and technological change are much more important than the effects attributable to the business cycle

Map schematization with circular arcs

We present an algorithm to compute schematic maps with circular arcs. Our algorithm iteratively replaces two consecutive arcs with a single arc to reduce the complexity of the output map and thus to increase its level of abstraction. Our main contribution is a method for replacing arcs that meet at high-degree vertices. This allows us to greatly reduce the output complexity, even for dense networks. We experimentally evaluate the effectiveness of our algorithm in three scenarios: territorial outlines, road networks, and metro maps. For the latter, we combine our approach with an algorithm to more evenly distribute stations. Our experiments show that our algorithm produces high-quality results for territorial outlines and metro maps. However, the lack of caricature (exaggeration of typical features) makes it less useful for road networks

Disentangling heterogeneity in contemporary undifferentiated arthritis – A large cohort study using latent class analysis

Objectives: Undifferentiated arthritis(UA) is clinically heterogeneous and differs in outcomes ranging from spontaneous resolution to RA-development. Therefore, we hypothesized that subgroups exist within UA and we aimed to identify homogeneous groups based on clinical features, and thereafter to relate these groups to the outcomes spontaneous resolution and RA-development. These outcomes can only be studied in UA-patients in which DMARD-treatment does not influence the natural disease course; these cohorts are scarce. Methods: We studied autoantibody-negative UA-patients (not fulfilling 1987/2010 RA-criteria, no alternate diagnosis), included in the Leiden Early Arthritis Clinic between 1993 and 2006, when early DMARD-treatment in UA was infrequent. Latent class analysis was used to identify subgroups based on combinations of clinical features. Within these subgroups, test-characteristics were assessed for spontaneous resolution of arthritis and RA-development within 1 year. Results: 310 consecutive UA-patients were studied. Five classes were identified: location and number of swollen joints were most distinguishing. Classes were characterized by: 1) polyarthritis, often symmetric; 2) oligoarthritis, frequently with subacute onset; 3) wrist-monoarthritis, often with subacute onset, increased BMI and without morning stiffness; 4) small-joint monoarthritis, often without increased acute phase reactants, and 5) large-joint monoarthritis, often with subacute onset. Studying the classes in relation to the outcomes revealed that patients without spontaneous resolution (thus having persistent disease) were nearly absent in the classes characterized by monoarthritis (specificity &gt;90%). Additionally, patients who developed RA were infrequent in monoarthritis classes (sensitivity &lt;7%). Conclusion: Using a data-driven unsupervised approach, five subgroups within contemporary UA were identified. These have differences in the natural course of disease.</p

Inflection point in the magnetic field dependence of the ordered moment of URu2Si2 observed by neutron scattering in fields up to 17 T

We have measured the magnetic field dependence of the ordered antiferromagnetic moment and the magnetic excitations in the heavy-fermion superconductor URu2Si2 for fields up to 17 Tesla applied along the tetragonal c axis, using neutron scattering. The decrease of the magnetic intensity of the tiny moment with increasing field does not follow a simple power law, but shows a clear inflection point, indicating that the moment disappears first at the metamagnetic transition at ~40 T. This suggests that the moment m is connected to a hidden order parameter Phi which belongs to the same irreducible representation breaking time-reversal symmetry. The magnetic excitation gap at the antiferromagnetic zone center Q=(1,0,0) increases continuously with increasing field, while that at Q=(1.4,0,0) is nearly constant. This field dependence is opposite to that of the gap extracted from specific-heat data.Comment: 10 pages, 5 figures, submitted to PR

Space-based passive microwave soil moisture retrievals and the correction for a dynamic open water fraction

The large observation footprint of low-frequency satellite microwave emissions complicates the interpretation of near-surface soil moisture retrievals. While the effect of sub-footprint lateral heterogeneity is relatively limited under unsaturated conditions, open water bodies (if not accounted for) cause a strong positive bias in the satellite-derived soil moisture retrieval. This bias is generally assumed static and associated with large, continental lakes and coastal areas. Temporal changes in the extent of smaller water bodies as small as a few percent of the sensor footprint size, however, can cause significant and dynamic biases. We analysed the influence of such small open water bodies on near-surface soil moisture products derived from actual (non-synthetic) data from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for the Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) for three areas in Oklahoma, USA. Differences between on-ground observations, model estimates and AMSR-E retrievals were related to dynamic estimates of open water fraction, one retrieved from a global daily record based on higher frequency AMSR-E data, a second derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and a third through inversion of the radiative transfer model, used to retrieve soil moisture. The comparison demonstrates the presence of relatively small areas (&lt;0.05) of open water in or near the sensor footprint, possibly in combination with increased, below-critical vegetation density conditions (optical density &lt;0.8), which contribute to seasonally varying biases in excess of 0.2 (m&lt;sup&gt;3&lt;/sup&gt; m&lt;sup&gt;−3&lt;/sup&gt;) soil water content. These errors need to be addressed, either through elimination or accurate characterisation, if the soil moisture retrievals are to be used effectively in a data assimilation scheme

Anisotropic and strong negative magneto-resistance in the three-dimensional topological insulator Bi2Se3

We report on high-field angle-dependent magneto-transport measurements on epitaxial thin films of Bi2Se3, a three-dimensional topological insulator. At low temperature, we observe quantum oscillations that demonstrate the simultaneous presence of bulk and surface carriers. The magneto- resistance of Bi2Se3 is found to be highly anisotropic. In the presence of a parallel electric and magnetic field, we observe a strong negative longitudinal magneto-resistance that has been consid- ered as a smoking-gun for the presence of chiral fermions in a certain class of semi-metals due to the so-called axial anomaly. Its observation in a three-dimensional topological insulator implies that the axial anomaly may be in fact a far more generic phenomenon than originally thought.Comment: 6 pages, 4 figure