Economics of geological CO2 storage and leakage.

[Dataset available: http://hdl.handle.net/10411/16381]

Do Kenya's climate change mitigation ambitions necessitate large-scale renewable energy deployment and dedicated low-carbon energy policy?

In this paper Kenya's climate change mitigation ambitions are analysed from an energy system perspective, with a focus on the role of renewable and other low-carbon energy technologies. At COP-21 in 2015 in Paris, Kenya has committed to a `nationally determined contribution' of reducing domestic greenhouse gas emissions by 30% in 2030 in comparison to a business-as-usual projection. An efficient exploitation of the country's renewable energy resources is key to achieving this target. We use the TIAM-ECN model to characterize plausible development pathways for the Kenyan energy mix until 2050 under different climate change mitigation scenarios. We conclude that the power sector can expand with mostly renewable energy options even in the absence of stringent greenhouse gas abatement targets. On the contrary, on the demand side a substantial deployment of low-carbon technologies is triggered only when ambitious emission reduction objectives are in place. The introduction of these technologies entails additional energy system costs, ranging in 2050 from 0.5% to 2% of the country's GDP. Our analysis supports the feasibility of Kenyan climate management goals, provided that adequate investments in renewable and other low-carbon energy technologies are timely made available

Evaluating uncertain CO2 abatement over the very long term

Climate change research with the economic methodology of cost–benefit analysis is challenging because of valuation and ethical issues associated with the long delays between CO2 emissions and much of their potential damages, typically of several centuries. The large uncertainties with which climate change impacts are known today and the possibly temporary nature of some envisaged CO2 abatement options exacerbate this challenge. For example, potential leakage of CO2 from geological reservoirs, after this greenhouse gas has been stored artificially underground for climate control reasons, requires an analysis in which the uncertain climatic consequences of leakage are valued over many centuries. We here present a discussion of some of the relevant questions in this context and provide calculations with the top–down energy-environment-economy model DEMETER. Given the long-term features of the climate change conundrum as well as of technologies that can contribute to its solution, we considered it necessary extending DEMETER to cover a period from today until the year 3000, a time span so far hardly investigated with integrated assessment models of climate change

Financial de-risking to unlock Africa's renewable energy potential

African countries are in a unique position to reap the socio-economic and environmental benefits of renewable resources as a means for meeting increasing energy demand in a sustainable way. A critical obstacle for the deployment of renewable energy technologies in Africa is the difficulty of attracting sufficient and affordable finance. This paper compares the impact of financial conditions on the cost of electricity generation across six renewable and three fossil-based technologies in 46 African countries. The results show large cost variations and highlight the extent to which renewables are disadvantaged by current financial practices. The energy-economy-environment model TIAM-ECN is used to show how lowering financing costs results in a much higher deployment of renewables. For example, solar PV could account for 10–15% of total electricity generation by 2050, even without explicit climate policy, thanks to financial de-risking programmes. The results demonstrate that changes in financing schemes could outweigh the impact of technology learning. This paper also demonstrates that, once ambitious climate policies are in place, reducing financing costs for renewables could be an efficient way to lower greenhouse gas emissions. Financial de-risking is thus a key ingredient for unlocking the renewable energy potential in Africa